By the numbers Top-50 QBs of All-Time

[CrazyCowboy]

How did Vick make #50?

 

[THUMPER]

I think you need to weight WHICH games are won and lost. Playoff, championship games need to be double or triple the value of a regular season game. If you did that, these results would be more correct.
Also- a QB should be weighted negatively when his stats in playoff and championship games are WORSE then regular season games; conversely, if he does BETTER in playoff games that should be emphasized as well.

As I said earlier, I do want to add in playoff games and championship but that would entail a lot more work and time which I don't have right now. The numbers do include playoff games and stats, as do all of my all-time statistics. I don't see why they should be excluded from a player's career totals when they are actually MORE important than those gained in the regular season.

Playoff games are against the best competition and are a better measure of the teams and players involved than regular season games which are often played against weak competition.

I do not agree that a player should be penalized for not playing well in a playoff game because he was good enough to get there in the first pace. I just wouldn't give it as much weight as one who did well.

Also, I am working with career totals and to try to factor in ratings for individual games would be a monumental task. I believe that, in general, the games average themselves out over the course of a career anyway.

The purpose of this ranking was not to determine which QB was truly the greatest but to show what their actual performance was.

Bobby Layne is in the HoF but he has some of the worst stats a QB can have. He was considered a great "money" QB but lost most of his playoff games with horrible performances. His reputation was built on a couple of games (see Lynn Swann) where he came up big at the end and pulled out a win.

I tried to factor in the "intangibles" with a "leadership" rating for each QB which is the only subjective factor and is based solely on MY opinion of the QB's leadership ability.

Roger Staubach had the highest leadership rating (100) as I consider him to have been the best leader of all time. Joe Montana was 2nd with 99, Unitas with 98, and so forth (there are many with the same rating of say 85, it is not progressive). This was to differentiate between players of similar stats but differing abilities. Staubach could throw 3 INTs in a game and yet pull it out at the end, that had to be factored into the equation.

Brady and Manning are near the top right now but they may not be by the time their careers are over as players decline over the years. Both are in their primes right now, the same goes for all of the current players on the list. If I had made the list exclusively of players who are already retired it would have come out a lot different and would not have created so much controversy.

I seriously doubt Marc Bulger will still be in the top-20 when he retires. Same goes for McNabb and many others. People get their shorts in a uproar when they see something like this without understanding what it is, or what it is for.

The top guys were winners and that is the primary purpose of this analysis, who were the guys that played well and won games.

The next step is to factor in playoffs win% and championships but that will have to wait a bit.

 

[lurkercowboy]

I think the football world needs a list like this. Some formula to determine the best QB. Of course it won't settle anything, but it gives fans something to argue about. Can we see the formula you used?

I always knew Staubach was the best Dallas QB.

 

[THUMPER]

youre getting alot of criticism on this thread. Could you reveal your process more. Is it a purely mathmatical process? If so how do you quatify leadership? Is it a mix of stats plus your perceptions of things that dont have a stat?

I just posted a reply to burmfard where I specified how I went about this. Let me know if you still have questions after reading it.

 

[THUMPER]

I think the football world needs a list like this. Some formula to determine the best QB. Of course it won't settle anything, but it gives fans something to argue about. Can we see the formula you used?

I always knew Staubach was the best Dallas QB.

Staubach is 2nd all-time in winning percentage behind Otto Graham having won 75.6% of games he played a majority of the plays in, including playoffs. Graham won a staggering 85.1% of his games which is incredible!

Staubach is followed by Sid Luckman 75.5%, and Tom Brady 75.2% although I doubt that Brady will be able to continue that pace over the course of his career. Montana comes next with 72.3% and Daryl Lamonica is the last of the 70+ with 71.3% (which is why he ranked so high).

Winning football games is the most important factor, period. That's what a QB's job is so that has the greatest weight in my analysis.

As for the actual formula I used... that will take some time to put into verbiage but I'll post it when I can.

 

[gollum]

No Dan Fouts???

 

[Biggems]

Hey at least Neil ODonnell made the list........he was a great QB...won 1 SB for the Cowboys in 95........Ill never forget those two beautiful passes he threw....I have never seen 2 sweeter passes in all my years of watching the SB...

NEIL RULES

 

[YosemiteSam]

This list is tainted. Q-Car isn't in the list...

 

[lurkercowboy]

No Dan Fouts???

Yeah, where did Fouts rate? I'd like to see the entire list if possible. It is hard to see how Stan Humphries rated ahead of Fouts.

I used to do this kind of thing years ago when a friend and I made up our own football game. I can't remember the QB rating system we used to save my life.

 

[Scowboys8]

"The top guys were winners and that is the primary purpose of this analysis, who were the guys that played well and won games. "

Didn't Aikman win more games in the 90's then any other QB? i.e. Steve Young, Brett Favre, Dan Marino.

 

[MissionCoach]

20. JAKE DELHOMME
22. TERRY BRADSHAW
23. STEVE McNAIR
24. LEN DAWSON
25. JIM McMAHON
26. JOE THEISMANN
27. BOB GRIESE
28. KENNY STABLER
29. PHIL SIMMS

I can't see Delhomme being rated higher than anyone in this group

 

[CF74]

I have finally updated my QB Rating spreadsheet using my own statistical rating system that takes several factors into account including wins, losses, and leadership. It favors guys who won.

I'd like to factor in fumbles and fumbles lost but I don't have those stats for most of these guys. I would also like to factor in playoff wins and championships won but that would mean a lot more calculations, still I may add it in someday when I get the time.

I use a minimum of 15000 yards except in certain cases where a QB is still playing and is either close (Vick) or well on his way (Palmer).

The results are not necessarily reflective of which QB is better than another (although Graham is #1 in my opinion anyway) but shows the efficiency and success of each QB.

Here are the top-50 (there are 127 total):

1. OTTO GRAHAM
2. JOE MONTANA
3. TOM BRADY
4. ROGER STAUBACH
5. PEYTON MANNING
6. STEVE YOUNG
7. JOHN ELWAY
8 SID LUCKMAN
9. MARC BULGER
10. DONOVAN McNABB
11. KURT WARNER
12. BART STARR
13. BRETT FAVRE
14. DAN MARINO
15. JOHNNY UNITAS
16. JIM KELLY
17. DARYL LAMONICA
18 TROY AIKMAN
19. DANNY WHITE
20. JAKE DELHOMME
21. CARSON PALMER
22. TERRY BRADSHAW
23. STEVE McNAIR
24. LEN DAWSON
25. JIM McMAHON
26. JOE THEISMANN
27. BOB GRIESE
28. KENNY STABLER
29. PHIL SIMMS
30. FRANK RYAN
31. MATT HASSELBECK
32. RICH GANNON
33. RANDALL CUNNINGHAM
34. KEN ANDERSON
35. DREW BREES
36. NEIL O'DONNELL
37. BRAD JOHNSON
38, NORM VAN BROCKLIN
39. CHAD PENNINGTON
40. DAVE KRIEG
41. ELVIS GRBAC
42. FRAN TARKENTON
43. WARREN MOON
44. MARK RYPIEN
45. MARK BRUNELL
46. STAN HUMPHRIES
47. BRIAN GRIESE
48. TRENT GREEN
49. MILT PLUM
50. MICHAEL VICK

How could you get Steve Young or Peyton Manning above Elway??????? I demand a recount!!!

 

[superpunk]

Based on the outcome you got, it looks like you placed too much emphasis on winning (a collective achievement) and not enough on the individual stuff. If you're doing a ranking of individuals, winning can be a factor - it just looks like you made it too much of one.

 

[trickblue]

The results are not necessarily reflective of which QB is better than another (although Graham is #1 in my opinion anyway) but shows the efficiency and success of each QB.

Spot on...

Any talking head "expert" or journalist that doesn't mention Otto Graham as the greatest QB ever (or at least top5) has no credibility...

 

[Champsheart]

Um, any list that has the Top 50 QB's of all time, and no DAN FOUNTS is very flawed.

Half of the guys on that list could not hold Fouts jock strap.

 

[Rustinpeace21]

I think drew should be there, brian griese? ***? Vick? STAN HUMPHRIES?

 

[DLCassidy]

This list is garbage.

 

[ZeroClub]

Interesting list.

There are so many variables to consider....

Here's a few issues:

Because you are using their career stats, if a "greatest ever" QB plays too long after his prime, then his rating drops, correct? I'm not sure that is how it should be. For example, Johnny Unitas was truly great, but played too long. Would his ranking be higher had he quit earlier?

Another issue - A guy like Tarkenton is penalized because he was stuck, for a time, playing for a bad team. It wasn't his doing or his fault. Those Giants didn't give him much to work with. And once he moved back to the Vikings, I'm guessing his numbers got better. So was he a worse QB with the Giants than he was with the Vikings, or was it just that he was an outstanding QB whose his numbers suffered when he played with a bad team?

I guess I'm not surprised that Namath isn't on the list. His career stats weren't super-impressive.

But I notice that Dan Fouts isn't on the list. He is in the Hall of Fame and most would say he's clearly deserving of it. In my subjective opinion, Fouts was clearly superior to 17. DARYL LAMONICA, 20. JAKE DELHOMME, 23. STEVE McNAIR, 31. MATT HASSELBECK, 32. RICH GANNON, 33. RANDALL CUNNINGHAM, 36. NEIL O'DONNELL, 37. BRAD JOHNSON, 39. CHAD PENNINGTON, 41. ELVIS GRBAC, 44. MARK RYPIEN, 45. MARK BRUNELL, 46. STAN HUMPHRIES, 47. BRIAN GRIESE, 50. MICHAEL VICK.

I'm not giving you a hard time. I fully understand how complex all of this is. And I applaud your efforts. But I think you have got to tweak your system somehow so that a Hall of Famer like Fouts is ranked higher than the likes of Elvis Grbac and Brian Griese. The reason: Fouts was obviously better than Grbac and Brian Griese. It isn't even close.

Maybe if you somehow factored in "honors" ... such as Pro Bowl selections for those who had that opportunity?

 

[burmafrd]

Problem with putting a large emphasis on winning is that some recent QBs that were strictly BUS DRIVERS get ranked ahead of some REAL QBs. The BUS DRIVERS fail when crunch time comes in the playoffs.

 

[THUMPER]

Now here's something we hope you'll really like:

If you don't like my list maybe you'll like the one from the HoF based on Passer Rating.

Both lists are based on numbers, so now tell me which one you think is a more accurate reflection of the position (I've bolded some notable QBs)...
====================
All-Time Passer Ratings
February 22, 2006

Passer Ratings
(At the Start of the 2006 NFL Season)
Minimum 1500 Career Attempts

1 Steve Young * 96.8
2 KURT WARNER 94.1
3 PEYTON MANNING 93.5
4 Joe Montana * 92.3
5 DAUNTE CULPEPPER 91.5
6 MARC BULGER + 90.6
7 TOM BRADY 88.5
8 TRENT GREEN 88.3
9 MATT HASSELBECK 86.64
10 Otto Graham * # 86.63
11 Dan Marino * 86.4
12 BRETT FAVRE 86.0
13 JEFF GARCIA 85.8
14 DREW BREES + 84.9
15 BRIAN GRIESE 84.8
16 Rich Gannon 84.7
17 JAKE DELHOMME + 84.5
18 Jim Kelly * 84.39
19 BRAD JOHNSON 84.36
20 DONOVAN McNABB 84.08
21 MARK BRUNELL 84.07
22 Roger Staubach * 83.4
23 STEVE McNAIR 83.3
24 Neil Lomax 82.7
25 Sonny Jurgensen * 82.63
26 Len Dawson * 82.56
27 Ken Anderson 81.9
28 Bernie Kosar 81.827
29 Neil O'Donnell 81.816
30 Danny White 81.7
31 Troy Aikman * 81.6
32 Dave Krieg 81.50
33 Randall Cunningham 81.47
34 Boomer Esiason 81.1
35 Warren Moon * 80.9
36 Jeff Hostetler 80.48
37 Bart Starr * 80.47
38 Ken O'Brien 80.44
39 Jeff George 80.42
40 Fran Tarkenton * 80.35
41 Steve Beuerlein 80.3
42 Dan Fouts * 80.2
43 John Elway * 79.9
44 Tony Eason 79.72
45 AARON BROOKS 79.70
46 Elvis Grbac 79.6
47 Chris Chandler 79.1
48 Mark Rypien 78.9
49 Jim Everett 78.6
50 Phil Simms 78.5
51 Bert Jones 78.21
52 Johnny Unitas * 78.20
53 Jim McMahon 78.18
54 JEFF BLAKE 78.03
55 Bobby Hebert 78.00
56 Frank Ryan 77.61
57 Jim Harbaugh 77.60
58 Joe Theismann 77.4
59 DREW BLEDSOE 77.3
60 Bob Griese * 77.14
61 JAY FIEDLER 77.13
62 Bill Kenney 77.0
63 Erik Kramer 76.64
64 Gary Danielson 76.58
65 DOUG FLUTIE 76.3
66 Stan Humphries 75.8
67 Wade Wilson 75.6
68 Steve Bartkowski 75.4
69 GUS FREROTTE 75.32
70 Ken Stabler 75.31
71 JON KITNA 75.281
72 Scott Mitchell 75.279
73 Steve Bono 75.273
74 VINNY TESTAVERDE 75.18
75 Tim Couch 75.14
76 Norm Van Brocklin * 75.07
77 JAKE PLUMMER 75.06
78 Sid Luckman * 75.0
79 Chris Miller 74.9
80 Don Meredith 74.84
81 Brian Sipe 74.80
82 Y.A. Tittle * # 74.3
83 Roman Gabriel 74.29
84 Steve DeBerg 74.24
85 Earl Morrall 74.1
86 KERRY COLLINS 73.74
87 DAVID CARR + 73.70
88 Craig Morton 73.5
89 Rodney Peete 73.30
90 Don Majkowski 72.95
91 Daryle Lamonica 72.944
92 Greg Landry 72.938
93 Ron Jaworski 72.78
94 Tommy Kramer 72.77
95 TONY BANKS 72.4
96 Bubby Brister 72.28
97 John Brodie 72.27
98 Milt Plum 72.22
99 Sammy Baugh * 72.21
100 Billy Wade 72.19
101 Jay Schroeder 71.7
102 Bill Kilmer 71.6
103 Bill Munson 71.5
104 TRENT DILFER 71.3
105 Lynn Dickey 70.94
106 Terry Bradshaw * 70.92
107 Kordell Stewart 70.7
108 Bill Nelson 70.2
109 Vince Ferragamo 70.1
110 Steve Grogan 69.6
111 Doug Williams 69.4
112 Charley Johnson 69.2
113 Mike Tomczak 68.9
114 Eric Hipple 68.7
115 Joe Ferguson 68.4
116 Charley Conerly 68.2
117 JOEY HARRINGTON + 68.1
118 Dave Brown 67.9
119 Billy Joe Tolliver 67.74
120 Marc Wilson 67.70
121 Tom Flores 67.58
122 Richard Todd 67.57
123 Jim Plunkett 67.5
124 John Hadl 67.4
125 Jim Zorn 67.3
126 Archie Manning 67.1
127 Jim Hart 66.6
128 Norm Snead 65.54
129 Joe Namath * 65.46
130 Rick Mirer 63.5
131 Bobby Layne * 63.38
132 Jack Trudeau 63.32
133 Mike Livingston 63.28
134 Mike Pagel 63.26
135 Ed Brown 62.8
136 Mark Malone 61.9
137 Bob Waterfield * 61.6
138 Eddie LeBaron 61.4
139 George Blanda * 60.6
140 Babe Parilli 59.6
141 Dan Pastorini 59.1
142 Jack Kemp 57.3
143 Tobin Rote 56.8
144 Cotton Davidson 54.9
145 Mike Phipps 52.6
146 Frank Tripucka 52.2

ACTIVE IN 2005
* Pro Football Hall of Fame Member
# Includes All-America Football Conference (1946-1949)
+ Reached 1,500 career attempts during 2005 to qualify for list.
================================================

Mine is 10X more accurate than that POS but is still based on stats.