Dak’s Inaccurate Myth is just that, a Myth

[TheMarathonContinues]

Eh, worse QBs than Dak have won before.

We’ll go as far as the defense and run game take us.

Being able to turn around and give it to Pollard will give us a big boost. I have to believe some playaction passing should be happening soon.

I’m just saying based on what I’ve seen whether it’s been Nick Foles or Flacco or Stafford….you can’t hide them. You have to big time throws to win. It’s why Jimmy G, Goff and Newton don’t have rings. They couldn’t make the timely throw. Dak can hand it off 50 times but at some point he’s going to have to win with a timely throw.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Op didn’t watch the Green Bay game.

He never commented on that game. Coincidence?

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

Don't we usually lose when Dak throws a lot? Usually?

Yes, for sure. Think I mentioned something like that not long ago, when the run is working and then wonder boy stops and starts slinging it like we have Dan Marino or something.

 

[Denim Chicken]

It’s a damn good indicator.

The problem with completion percentage as a gauge for accuracy is that just checking down on short throws would give you a great completion percentage but only show you were accurate on short throws.

You are right, though, that this is likely less of an issue with someone with a long career and Dak has had good statistics on deep balls.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

I’m just saying based on what I’ve seen whether it’s been Nick Foles or Flacco or Stafford….you can’t hide them. You have to big time throws to win. It’s why Jimmy G, Goff and Newton don’t have rings. They couldn’t make the timely throw. Dak can hand it off 50 times but at some point he’s going to have to win with a timely throw.

He showed this game....he can....make good throws.

Can he do it when we really need it most,?

 

[Rockport]

The problem with completion percentage as a gauge for accuracy is that just checking down on short throws would give you a great completion percentage but only show you were accurate on short throws.

You are right, though, that this is likely less of an issue with someone with a long career and Dak has had good statistics on deep balls.

All QB’s check down to short throws. Brady’s made a HOF career doing that.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

He showed this game....he can....make good throws.

Can he do it when we really need it most,?

That’s kind of what I’m getting at. In order to take the next step he has to make the throws when they need them. It’s the difference being a winner and a loser in this league. He made them yesterday for sure. The poster eluded that Dak doesn’t matter and to anyone that’s been paying attention to the NFL? That’s the furthest thing from the truth.

 

[streetcredit]

I think most of us have seen the videos and the competitions. When put purely in a throwing competition, Dak isn't as accurate as other NFL QB's. During games we have all seen where he is a little behind or over a receiver. It happens to him more than other QB's. He isn't that accurate.

Completion percentage is a factor of two things though: Who you decide to throw to and how accurately you throw it to him.

Let's be honest, just about everyone on this forum could have a near 100% completion percentage throwing to a wide open guy with no pressure on us. Its called "playing catch". Even a yard high or to the side is going to get caught.

Frequently bad QB's are guys with strong accurate arms who consistently throw it at the wrong time to the wrong person. Mitch Trubisky is an example of this.

Dak's strength is usually that he takes the plays that are there. It has frequently pissed people off and triggered nicknames like "Dink and Dak". Regardless, when Dak is on his game he isn't trying to thread the needle into tight coverage and as a result, he consistently has a good completion percentage.

Anyhow, they track this kind of stuff
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm

Dak is 30th in the NFL in "on target %". This isn't some made up complaint.

Compare his on target%/bad pass%, it's terrible. Most guys have 5 on target for every bad pass, Dak is at 3.18, only Tannehill is worse at 3.15. Rush is at 4.48

 

[Slick]

Trophies have nothing to do with a players talent. Absolutely nothing.

I didn't say it did, I was comparing Dak's record to that list of QB's. Did over state that otherwise?

 

[plasticman]

So do you think he's the 2nd best QB since 1970, or does that mean these QB stats are worthless?

That's where people get deceived by stats. It's not the stats that are deceptive, it's what people put into their meaning.

That is the flawed logic that people can use in response to stats. That is the deceptive part of statistics. Facts cannot be debated so a person will debate the means by which these facts are achieved.

Does having the 2nd best completion percentage in NFL history mean that you are the 2nd best quarterback? No!

It simply means that Dak has the 2nd best completion percentage. I don't even know what someone means when they say "2nd best quarterback". Is completion percentage the only criteria used? Of course not.

What criteria should be used to judge "the best"? I'll bet there are as many answers as there are fans with an opinion.

For me that answer to who is the best or 2nd best, or so on depends on the level of success. What is "success" in the NFL? It's winning, of course. Specifically, i believe it has to do with winning championships. In my opinion the best quarterback ever is Tom Brady and the second best is Joe Montana.

Anyway, the issue being discussed was Dak's accuracy and not his overall effectiveness. How do you measure accuracy? Well, completion percentage isn't the totality of accuracy but it's a really good start

 

[Nexx]

so ignorant to think completion percentage equals accuracy

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

so ignorant to think completion percentage equals accuracy

I’ve never seen a crappy passer have a high completion rate though.

 

[streetcredit]

so ignorant to think completion percentage equals accuracy

Yup, and his on target percentage is quite bad. We need a stat for QBs that sit in the pocket staring into space waiting to be sacked instead of throwing the ball away.

 

[Nexx]

I’ve never seen a crappy passer have a high completion rate though.

Daniel Jones 65% this season Taylor Heinicke career 63% Jimmy Garoppolo career 67% Matt Schaub career 64% Mitch Trubisky career 64% ... Aikman career 61% therefore is less accurate than all these guys? I mean C'mon man.

 

[plasticman]

Sorry but he is an inaccurate QB. He has been gifted with incredible protection from great O Lines all of his career.. the amount of time he has (and takes) to throw is huge.. and he still routinely throws behind and low. We could drag up posts from 2016 pointing out that he throws low and behind.. and here we sit and can still say the same thing.

Dak looks great (like SERIOUSLY great) when he has a clean pocket, the RBs are rolling and he can then pop a short pass that goes for monster YAC as the D is pushing down to stop the run. It is the formula he has used to earn his millions and it is actually a great formula.. but it doesn't make him accurate.

If I could give the ball to one NFL QB to hit the target to save my life.. it ain't Dak. I don't care what your stats say. And if anyone would choose Dak first.. yikes..

Even yesterday.. we were dominant and Dak played a great game.. but look who scored the TDs.. Zeke x 2 and Pollard x 2.. and both of Pollards were after long YAC. Dak missed 9 opportunities to pass into tight windows in the RZ. That is where his accuracy gets found out. But you are right that all QBs struggle at times.. but using completion % to measure accuracy is just lazy.

Why do I get the feeling that completion percentage IS factual evidence of accuracy for any other NFL quarterback not named Dak Prescott?

I suppose then, that it cannot be used to demonstrate the accuracy of Drew Brees who is ranked #1 in completion percentage. What is Drew Brees most acclaimed attribute? Wasn't it accuracy?

Others in the top ten like Mahomes (5), Warner (8), Rodgers (9), Payton Manning (10), Steve Young (15) and Tom Brady (16), are/were they accurate? What do we use as proof?

Fans think they remember how a QB performs but the truth is they only remember 2-5 plays a game at best. Typically, they remember the infrequent bad plays the most and it occupies more memory than the rest of the plays combined. Statistics are the documented facts, although it is important to remember that statistics are limited in scope so they do not tell the whole story.

NFL statistics use specific raw data. Completion percentage is very basic. It does not reveal strength of opponent, Quality of teammates like O-linemen or receivers. It does not measure experience, quality of coaching or current physical status in regards to small injuries that can still influence ability. It cannot be used to predict a short term performance like a single game or even season. However, It can reveal long term tendencies.

Dak has now thrown 3041 passes and I think that is enough information to form some conclusions. One conclusion I can draw is that, in comparison to the other 140 quarterbacks that have thrown at least 2000 passes in NFL history, Dak completed a higher percentage of passes than all but one. That does not mean that he is "accurate" or "inaccurate", Both terms imply an arbitrary measurement.

 

[kramskoi]

Every denier here always brings up that Dak isn’t an accurate QB. This is a prime example of how perception becomes reality. Every QB has bad throws. All of them. A video came out early in Dak’s career where he was competing with some former QB (can’t remember his name) in a friendly game of throwing the football at targets and the former QB beat him out. After seeing that, the yahoos have been constantly harping on how inaccurate Dak is. Yet Dak’s current career completion rate is 66.7%. Brady’s is 64.2%. Aaron Rogers is 65.4. Patrick Mahomes is 66.1. Josh Allens is 62.1

Now I’m not saying Dak is better than any of those QB’s. He’s not. But he’s close and he’s not inaccurate like so many of the deniers here say he is. It’s just not true.

Accuracy and completion rate are not exactly the same. Sam Bradford had a high completion percentage. It will also depend on how far you throw those completions...and then you have to factor in RAC.

 

[zeke21]

Why do I get the feeling that completion percentage IS factual evidence of accuracy for any other NFL quarterback not named Dak Prescott?

I suppose then, that it cannot be used to demonstrate the accuracy of Drew Brees who is ranked #1 in completion percentage. What is Drew Brees most acclaimed attribute? Wasn't it accuracy?

Others in the top ten like Mahomes (5), Warner (8), Rodgers (9), Payton Manning (10), Steve Young (15) and Tom Brady (16), are/were they accurate? What do we use as proof?

Fans think they remember how a QB performs but the truth is they only remember 2-5 plays a game at best. Typically, they remember the infrequent bad plays the most and it occupies more memory than the rest of the plays combined. Statistics are the documented facts, although it is important to remember that statistics are limited in scope so they do not tell the whole story.

NFL statistics use specific raw data. Completion percentage is very basic. It does not reveal strength of opponent, Quality of teammates like O-linemen or receivers. It does not measure experience, quality of coaching or current physical status in regards to small injuries that can still influence ability. It cannot be used to predict a short term performance like a single game or even season. However, It can reveal long term tendencies.

Dak has now thrown 3041 passes and I think that is enough information to form some conclusions. One conclusion I can draw is that, in comparison to the other 140 quarterbacks that have thrown at least 2000 passes in NFL history, Dak completed a higher percentage of passes than all but one. That does not mean that he is "accurate" or "inaccurate", Both terms imply an arbitrary measurement.

I'm pretty clear on where I stand with dak. He has been gifted one of the best olines in the league for his entire career.. he has always had at least 1 all pro WR and TE target and he has at least one pro RB.

With those tools at his disposal.. his completion rate is going to be high. We have had a very good football team for his entire career here. Compared to other guys that have to get drafted to crappy teams and then literally drag them up.. Dak has coasted. He has also benefitted from picking on a very weak division for most of his career. I think his stats outside of the NE are like 20-28. So I'd love to see his completion % when he is actually under pressure. I know it will be much lower.

I can't believe people still think Dak is an elite QB.. I'd love to see him go onto another team and see the halo fall quick. The question has been, and always will be, can Dak do it against good teams or when the chips are down. And you are right.. over 3041 passes and we can see that he can't and he doesn't.

But I want us to win.. and he is our QB.. so I hope he learns to be a good bus driver and we can Nick Foles our way to a ring.

 

[Playmaker247]

The problem with completion percentage as a gauge for accuracy is that just checking down on short throws would give you a great completion percentage but only show you were accurate on short throws.

You are right, though, that this is likely less of an issue with someone with a long career and Dak has had good statistics on deep balls.

That’s true. Which is why completion percentage above expected is a much better stat. Which again Dak ranks among the best in the NFL. I think people don’t realize that throughout Daks career cowboys skill positions have always ranked middle to bottom of the league in separation. Dak has constantly been forced to make so many tight window throws because his weapons don’t separate at a high level

 

[Aftershock]

That’s true. Which is why completion percentage above expected is a much better stat. Which again Dak ranks among the best in the NFL. I think people don’t realize that throughout Daks career cowboys skill positions have always ranked middle to bottom of the league in separation. Dak has constantly been forced to make so many tight window throws because his weapons don’t separate at a high level

Don’t believe that for a second. Can you link a stat or fact proving that Dak has played with receivers with bottom half separation? I mean he had Beasley, Cooper for half of his career

 

[plasticman]

Where’s your proof he has the lowest 3rd down QB rating in the NFL since 2005. Link?

It is a blatantly false statement. in fact, the opposite is true. Dak is ranked #5 in 3rd down completion percentage among the 54 quarterbacks who have at least 500 pass attempts in this category.

https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&order_by_asc=0&order_by=game_date&year_min=2005&year_max=2022&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&minutes_max=15&seconds_max=0&minutes_min=0&seconds_min=0&down[]=3&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS

Apologies, but i cannot edit the parameters of teh search to 500 attempts and link it. However, visual inspection proves the validity of my statement.