https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27840057/barnwell-answering-nine-questions-define-nfl-season
Prescott was playing unconscious football through three weeks, but that has faded. Even given the relatively easy slate of defenses, he was significantly outperforming expectations. From Weeks 1-3, the NFL Next Gen Stats model projected Prescott would complete 64.6% of his pass attempts given where his receivers and defenders were at the time of his throws. Instead, Prescott hit on 74.5% of those passes, with the resulting 9.9% difference representing the largest gap in the league through three games.
While Prescott has continued to outperform these expected completion rates, it hasn't been quite as noticeable. His expected completion rate over the last three games has been just 60.3%, with Prescott hitting 65.8% of his throws for a 5.5% difference. He has thrown four picks over that span, although one was on a Hail Mary and another was off Amari Cooper's hands. Prescott's receivers have dropped 6% of his passes over that last three games, fourth most in the NFL.
The old canard about how Prescott's numbers fell off when Ezekiel Elliott left the field were always overstated, given how Elliott's six-game absence in 2017 was directly in line with an injury suffered by Tyron Smith and how the Cowboys only kick-started their passing game after trading for Cooper last year. On Sunday, we got to see whether Elliott could single-handedly jump-start the offense, given that Smith and fellow tackle La'el Collins were out injured and Cooper followed them to the sideline after three snaps with a quad injury.
