Dak vs. Romo - Deep passing

[LocimusPrime]

Thanks for clarifying, but I can't help but notice you left off some really important numbers.

Let's compare 2014 and 2017.

Romo had 83 attempts between 11-20 yards. Romo hit on 57.8 percent of these passes.
Dak had 98 attempts between 11-20 yards. Dak hit on 44.9 percent of these passes.

What about further?

Romo had 25 attempts between 21-30 yards. Romo hit on 60 percent of these passes.
Dak had 22 attempts between 21-30 yards. He hit on 31.8 percent of these passes.

41+

Romo had 7 attempts and hit 42.9 percent of these passes.
Dak had 6 attempts and hit on only 33.3 percent of these passes.

So it isn't just that he attempts fewer of these really long passes, but that with his poor down field accuracy he also hits on fewer.

Just for the record this is what Romo did in 2007

11-20 yards, 128 attempts, hit on 50 percent of them
21-30 yards, 64 attempts, hit on 44.2 percent of them
31-40 yards, 14 attempts, hit on 50 percent of them


I think it's hilarious people even want to have this conversation.

That's some good info bro. Thanks

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

"The drops are dropped from the attempts total" -- say what?




Again -- what? Dak doesn't get any "benefit from drops" in any of the accuracy breakdowns. Whether the pass is caught or dropped doesn't affect whether it was judged to be accurate.




None of the accuracy stats use the term "leveraging throws," so whatever you think that means to you, it has nothing to do with any of the stats. Try talking in terms used in the stats if you are trying to refute them.

Exactly what I said. PFF and FO adjust for drops in the attempt total in their analysis. I was wrong on how though there. They do not subtract drops from attempts but instead add them to the completion total. It amounts to the same level of bias.

Here is their justification for doing so. https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/stat-sheet-misconceptions-completion-percentage

And leveraging throws is a common term in pass coaching. I'm sure you have heard of DBs having inside and outside leverage or the like. The QB is taught to locate the ball based on said leverage. Dak ability to do so diminishes greatly downfield.

That none of the stats considers that is exactly my point.

 

[plasticman]

Perhaps this will put things in better perspective.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------

First two years in the league::

Dak Prescott -

619-949-6991YDS-45TD-17INT
Starts-32 Record 22-10

Accomplishments- Set NFL record for number of passes before 1st career INT....Set NFL record for rookie QB with most consecutive wins...Set record for highest completion percentage in first two NFL seasons (minimum 500 attempts)....

Tony Romo-

0-0-0YDS-0TD-0INT
Starts-0 Record 0-0

Accomplishments- Became field goal place holder in his second season.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Both Tony Romo and Dak Prescott began their careers as rookies in training cvamp behind at least two other QB's.

 

[jay94]

Perhaps this will put things in better perspective.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------

First two years in the league::

Dak Prescott -

619-949-6991YDS-45TD-17INT
Starts-32 Record 22-10

Accomplishments- Set NFL record for number of passes before 1st career INT....Set NFL record for rookie QB with most consecutive wins...Set record for highest completion percentage in first two NFL seasons (minimum 500 attempts)....

Tony Romo-

0-0-0YDS-0TD-0INT
Starts-0 Record 0-0

Accomplishments- Became field goal place holder in his second season.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Both Tony Romo and Dak Prescott began their careers as rookies in training cvamp behind at least two other QB's.

No it doesn't if anything it says you were biased against Romo since the day he stepped on the field. You were ignorant enough to buy into the Jerry hoopla of the team being very talented, when it was overrated on a yearly basis. Romo had two crutches his whole career, everyone else was just a somebody or someone not consistent enough to care about one was Witten who by what he did and how he did was never a game changer and Demarcus Ware. Everyone else, just a joke overrated and over stated DEZ Bryant number one on that list.

 

[plasticman]

I don't care what stats say, sure Romo couldn't run for the first down and Dak is still very young, but at this point the two aren't close. I would also argue Dak has had better talent in his two years than Romo had 95% of his career.

Tony's prime years were 2006 to 2011.

During those combined seasons his receivers included Terrell Owens,Terry Glen, and a young Jason Witten.No other team had more Pro Bowl O-linemen during that period. The running game was ranked 10th in average yards per gain.The defense was ranked 7th overall during that period.

 

[plasticman]

No it doesn't if anything it says you were biased against Romo since the day he stepped on the field. You were ignorant enough to buy into the Jerry hoopla of the team being very talented, when it was overrated on a yearly basis. Romo had two crutches his whole career, everyone else was just a somebody or someone not consistent enough to care about one was Witten who by what he did and how he did was never a game changer and Demarcus Ware. Everyone else, just a joke overrated and over stated DEZ Bryant number one on that list.

When you counter facts with insults then you are admitting you have no valid response other than incoherent rants I never once expressed an opinion and yours, as I have just demonstrated, are baseless,

 

[keysersoze]

Dak is ahead of where Romo was after two years. Dak will be fine.

Yep. Romo was still on the practice squad in year 2

 

[PAPPYDOG]

OPEN YOUR EYES my fellow Boys fans!

Just finished watching my 9th game from last season (Game Pass) and all it takes is to open your eye's and see our QB the king of the dink and dunk pass and the overthrown pass even when its well short of the 1st down.
Man just watch Dak from last season and what you see out there is a Tim Tebow reincarnation out there!
Simply Terrible play and comparing him to Romo is insulting to the QB position in general!

Just watch last seasons games with OPEN EYES and you will come to the same conclusion I have.....HE STINKS!!!!!

 

[jay94]

Tony's prime years were 2006 to 2011.

During those combined seasons his receivers included Terrell Owens,Terry Glen, and a young Jason Witten.No other team had more Pro Bowl O-linemen during that period. The running game was ranked 10th in average yards per gain.The defense was ranked 7th overall during that period.

The pro bowl literally means nothing, half the Cowboys get in based on being a Cowboy alone. It was Terry Glenn also, if were getting this technical ffs. You just post a few stats that validate your claim, how about how were they in 3rd and 4th in one situations in comparisons to the league a stat that actually matters, when its 1st and 20 and you get 7 yards who the hell cares? Hard to believe the defense was that good a couple years yes they were good, but most his career they were dreadfully awful.

 

[T-RO]

Romo
41+ yards - 1.1% of total passes; 28.6% completion percentage

Dak
41+ yards - 0.8% of total passes; 28.6% completion percentage

For both quarterbacks...I've got to think a lot of those 41+ yard passes were hail mary's at the end of half or the end of a game. We just haven't been a team that throws bombs.

 

[jobberone]

One year Romo's offense failed to score less than 22 PPG. That's the kind of consistency you want.

Dak's offense had 4 games last where we failed to score more than ten points but scored 23 PPG overall. We, as you'd suspect, lost all four games. Breakeven there and we win 11 games. HUGE!

 

[Proof]

I don't know what you mean or what it would do really?

You'd like to see how many times each pass was thrown, like total quantity for each yardage? We can safely assume that over Romo's 10+ yr career that he threw all of those passes a consideable amount more than Dak has to this point. What would all of that work prove?

Agree it creates game-breaking opportunities, and that's why Avion went through the trouble of stating how often they attempted them on a per attempt basis.

Im talking about “deep passes” specifically. So I guess 30+ yds?

Similar percentages is cool, but if Romo has say 1000 attempts and Dak has 30 it would suggest a larger sample size is needed for Dak, and also that despite the pcts being close/equal one did it considerably more often.

Like there are a handful of players in the league with a similar 3 point pct as Steph Curry but his volume at that pct is what’s so impressive.
Also a lower volume would likely indicate a more conservative approach.

It’s not a lot of work at all. Most times pcts are listed the attempts/completions are right there as well

 

[Aviano90]

Anyone want to produce the total numbers vs pct's?

I'd have to imagine that Romo threw downfield considerably more (even if was less than other notable qb's) Volume matters when pct's stay consistent. Downfield throws = chunk gains, = game breaking opportunities. I'm glad to see Dak is consistent with Tony from a percentage standpoint, but I'd like to know if it's comparable from an overall quantity. That's not semantics either.

Yes, I have the numbers. They are all in the spreadsheet and can provide them later. Obviously Romo’s total numbers are going to be higher, because he has more years playing and we were a pass happy offense in the majority of his career vs the 2 years with Dak when we were a run focused offense.

That said; the percentages are used to account for the variance in pass attempts to normalize them. The point is we are going deep about the same amount. So, for every 100 passes thrown by each QB, they both threw about 2-3 passes that were 31-40 yards downfield.

So if we are going deep about the same amount, how is it that one QB is thought of as nothing but a check down artist who does nothing but dink and dunk while the other is a gunslinger tossing the ball downfield?

 

[School]

Here are some interesting stats on Dak's deep and outside accuracy percentage, with accuracy percentage defined as the following:

Accuracy percentage offers us an opportunity to separate the quarterback from the elements that distort his play, creating a new (subjective) measurement that only looks at the specific spot on the field the quarterback puts the ball. If you throw the ball to a post route, it should be in front of the receiver and at a height where he can catch it away from the coverage he is facing. If you throw to an out route, the ball better not be too far infield or lofted so the defensive back can break on it.

Completion percentage hinges on the result of each play. It hinges on the receiver catching the ball as much as it does on where the quarterback throws the ball. Accuracy percentage takes the receiver out of the equation and focuses solely on what the quarterback does.

Dak's accuracy percentage on throws that traveled further than 10 yards downfield and arrived outside the numbers on either side of the field:

46.3%, 15th in the league, right behind Russel Wilson. Brees was the most accurate by a significant margin (61.6%).

Other notables:

Carsus of Bismarck - 45.2% (18th)
Nick Foles - 51.3% (6th)
Kirk Cousins - 34.1% (35th)

Accuracy percentage on deep sideline throws only (passes that traveled outside the numbers and further than 20 yards downfield):

Dak - 42.4% (10th)
Carsus - 27.8% (29th)
Foles - 47.4 (8th)
Cousins - 25.6% (34th)
Derek Carr - 22.2% (36th), showing it's not all about arm strength.

Also, a fun fact: 94% of all pass attempts in the NFL traveled less than 20 yards downfield.

 

[noshame]

Perhaps this will put things in better perspective.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------

First two years in the league::

Dak Prescott -

619-949-6991YDS-45TD-17INT
Starts-32 Record 22-10

Accomplishments- Set NFL record for number of passes before 1st career INT....Set NFL record for rookie QB with most consecutive wins...Set record for highest completion percentage in first two NFL seasons (minimum 500 attempts)....

Tony Romo-

0-0-0YDS-0TD-0INT
Starts-0 Record 0-0

Accomplishments- Became field goal place holder in his second season.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Both Tony Romo and Dak Prescott began their careers as rookies in training cvamp behind at least two other QB's.

Thank you for that
You beat me to it

 

[Aviano90]

Its amazing that people can take a post and turn it into something that has nothing to do with the OP.

I see, who had a better running game, who had better WRs, who had better OL, who had a better team over all, even breaking down catchable passes and cb leverage which really doesnt have anything to do with the OP.

I think we can all agree Dak has been called a dink and dunk QB by many. I know we can agree, that at no time in Romos career, was he ever called a dink and dunk QB. The post is just showing that the false narrative that dak is a dink and dunk QB isnt true just like every other false narrative about dak isnt true more times than not. Unless of course, Romo was a dink and dunk QB and Im pretty sure no one will say that.

I will never understand why you have to bash one to compliment the other. Why you have to dislike one to like the other. Romo did great things for the Cowboys. He never got us to where we all want to be but thats not all on him. Dak did great his rookie year and came down to earth a little in his 2nd seaosn but that also wasnt all on him. I have no issues with critique of Daks play but to compare him to vets and expect the same thing from a 2nd year guy is a little silly. Does he need to improve things in his game? Sure, but who doesnt?

Thank you. You and a few others actually got the point. Others need to see how they can get more data to twist into making an argument one QB better than the other.

 

[Galian Beast]

So when you say "it isn't just about how often the QBs throw deep, but rather also how effective they are when they do it," by "how effective they are," you only mean completion percentage and NOT passer rating, right? Because that's the only measure of effectiveness that you used in your post. As if yards, touchdowns and interceptions are meaningless.



Yes, you gave an "entire breakdown" of seven passes by Romo and six passes by Dak on throws of 41 yards or more, mentioning only completion percentage. And an "entire breakdown" of 25 passes by Romo and 22 passes by Dak on throws of 21-30 yards, mentioning only completion percentage.

Oh, and you CONVENIENTLY skipped over the passes in between -- you know, those 18 passes by Romo that went 31-40 yards and those 10 passes by Dak that went 31-40 yards. Was it because Dak completed 40 percent and Romo completed 22 percent? Nah, that couldn't be it.

You want a larger sample size? How about Dak's ENTIRE CAREER on passes thrown 21 yards downfield or more? He has a passer rating of 112.0 -- is that effective enough for you?

We can take any sample size you want from Romo's career for comparison. Over his ENTIRE CAREER, he had a passer rating of 101.2 on passes 21 yards downfield or more. If we just look at his peak -- the four years from 2011 to 2014 -- he had a 104.3 passer rating on throws 21 yards downfield or more. If we cherry pick just his two best seasons, 2011 and 2014, his rating on passes 21 yards or more goes up to 110.9. That's tremendous, but it's STILL below Dak's 112.0 in the only two seasons of his career.

None of this means that Dak is somehow better than Romo or even that he is even in Romo's class yet. What it does mean is that anyone who thinks Dak hasn't been effective when he throws deep clearly has not been paying attention.

Both QB Rating and completion percentage are helped by larger sample sizes, but PARTICULARLY QB rating. That is obvious.

You seem obsessed with using QB rating on a small sample size ignoring the fact that the rate of deviation can change exponentially with just one or two changes in variables.

Adam, you've gone from a great source on this forum to an absolute shill.

 

[rwalters31]

The Dak can’t throw the deep ball has always been a myth

Ducks!!!!!!

 

[Cowpolk]

Yep. Romo was still on the practice squad in year 2

Romo was never on the practice squad

 

[Galian Beast]

Dak hits on 13 passes over 21 yards for the ENTIRE season and because of the ridiculously small sample size he has a high QB rating on them.

That's less than 1 pass per game for 21 or more yards... That's pathetic. He hit only 16 the year before.

Let's compare

2006 - Romo had 21 of these completions and only played 10 games...

He had 26 in 2007. DOUBLE what Dak had in 2017 and nearly as much as Dak had in his first two years COMBINED...

He's clearly dink and dunk and the apologists are embarrassing themselves.