Dak vs. Romo - Deep passing

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Similarly to Fuzzy, I think Dak could have been a decent successor under the right circumstances. I don't think he is being done any favors, nor do I think the team is being done favors with him starting right now either. He's just not an elite QB, and at this rate, I don't think he ever will be.

I think we can win with Dak and I like the receiver we drafted's skillset relative to Dak's. Throw in the running game to take congestion from the middle of the field and I think they are playing to his strengths.

My concern about Dak is that he is going to be short of top 5 but paid top 5 anyway. I don't think he can carry an offense like Brady or Rodgers and the rhetoric the Joneses are putting out is very troubling to me.

 

[Galian Beast]

I made the post because I think it is hilarious people think Dak does nothing but dink and dunk and the raw numbers indicate he throws the ball downfield about the same rate as Romo did for his career. That was the point.

As for your point, yes Romo had years that we’re better. That also means he had years that were worse.

This thread wasn’t intended to try and determine who was the better downfield passer but rather Dak, does indeed, throw the ball down the field at the rate this offense has done over a period of time where they had a QB performing at a level some people to consider Hall of Fame worthy.

Do you dispute that or can you shed light as to why fans are now upset we aren’t passing the ball deep more often than we have been?

Can you point out the specific years he was worse and then look at the entire picture and see what Romo had around him versus what Dak had?

I'm also wondering how you came up with your numbers for Romo.

 

[Galian Beast]

I think we can win with Dak and I like the receiver we drafted's skillset relative to Dak's. Throw in the running game to take congestion from the middle of the field and I think they are playing to his strengths.

My concern about Dak is that he is going to be short of top 5 but paid top 5 anyway. I don't think he can carry an offense like Brady or Rodgers and the rhetoric the Joneses are putting out is very troubling to me.

I don't see him ever cracking the top 10. Where the Bradys and Brees' will retire, new QBs will take their place that are better than Dak.

 

[Aviano90]

Can you point out the specific years he was worse and then look at the entire picture and see what Romo had around him versus what Dak had?

I'm also wondering how you came up with your numbers for Romo.

Are you intentionally trying to avoid the purpose of the post? Are you trying to prove Romo is better than Dak. If so, you don’t have to go down that path. I will concede that point as it has nothing to do with the point I was making/.

But, I have the raw numbers in a spreadsheet at work and can provide tomorrow. They were obtained from ESPN splits section under Romo’s stats.

 

[Darthkuriboh]

Dak could, and hopefully will, win the freaking Super Bowl and the same old fans wouldn’t be happy because their prescious Romo didn’t win it.

Dak has shown a whole lot of “it” (with accompanying and often overlooked stats), yet fans still yearn for Romo.

The idolization of Romo is beyond unbearable at this point.

I would be thrilled to win the super bowl no matter who was behind center. I can also still wish and will likely wish for decades to come that Tony had been given the proper support to win one.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

So do you think it's better to have a quarterback who either has pinpoint accuracy or is terribly off-target, resulting in fewer catchable passes overall, than to have a quarterback who throws more catchable passes?




Yes, because once the ball leaves the quarterback's hand, he does not control whether the pass is caught.



So all of those different analyses that name Dak as one of the most accurate deep passers are incorrect? Because Fuzzy Lumpkins says so?

I have never seen you petulant, Adam. it is an interesting look for you. That is an adorable strawman; I never said that terribly off-target was better.

Fact is that "catchable" throws do not consider DB leverage when they are "dropped" and as such it is misleading. That goes doubly so when you have these miniscule samples that make up Dak's deep throw dataset. 3 or 4 extra misses would be huge considering the denominators.

When Dak throws inside into inside leverage it is not a good throw amd with vice versa and the perpendicular orientation. QBs are taught to place the ball opposite the leverage for a reason. Watching Dak's deep ball cut ups it becomes exceedingly obvious how this is an issue.

If you cannot actually discuss the mechanics behind the statistics and continue to go with this childish form of retort instead then that is extremely disappointing.

 

[HungryLion]

I think we can win with Dak and I like the receiver we drafted's skillset relative to Dak's. Throw in the running game to take congestion from the middle of the field and I think they are playing to his strengths.

My concern about Dak is that he is going to be short of top 5 but paid top 5 anyway. I don't think he can carry an offense like Brady or Rodgers and the rhetoric the Joneses are putting out is very troubling to me.

I don’t think Dak can carry an offense like Brady or Rodgers either. But I do think we have to keep it in perspective how often a QB of their caliber comes around.

I mean in all honesty, how often do QB’s who can carry a team on their own really come around? Once a decade? If that?

Even Rodgers, as amazing and awesome as he is, has only won, one Super Bowl so far. Even he needs help to get there.

So it becomes a matter of opportunity cost. If the cowboys get a chance to grab a QB who they think can be THAT good. Then hell yes, take him. But even top 5 picks at QB rarely end up that good.

 

[PUSHfold]

Yes, "Trust the tape". Statistics can be very deceptive. Team under Romo is a pass first offense vs run first with Dak. Therefore, defensive personnel is different. But the biggest difference is what cannot be shown in these stats. There are passes that Tony are willing to make and can complete vs those Dak won't even attempt.

How many years of Romo throwing interceptions trying to complete those "passes" did it take before he finally became the QB he did?
Lol, you guys act like we had 2014 Romo his entire career which is BULL****.
Romo lost us damn near as many games as he won us with his style of play.

I am amazed at all the Dak hate when we're so incredibly lucky to even have the chance of him being a franchise QB...how many franchises throw away years of draft picks trying to find one and we could have potentially found one in the 4th round? EVERYBODY should be rooting so hard for this kid to figure it out and succeed. He doesn't have to be Rodgers or Brady he just needs to be able to contribute enough to the TEAM enough we can win games. He's a young DEVELOPING QB who like every other QB needs time to do so. People who expect a second year QB to delivering Rodgers type numbers are insane, that would be great sure but it's completely unrealistic. With the start to his career Dak has had he deserves time to develop.
If Dak was a 1st round pick he'd be given every chance to ensure he developed until we knew 10000% fact he wasn't what we need here. If we're gonna cut him loose and find someone else we better be damned sure he's not a franchise QB. It'd be sad to see him go to another team and become a decent QB.

 

[Galian Beast]

Are you intentionally trying to avoid the purpose of the post? Are you trying to prove Romo is better than Dak. If so, you don’t have to go down that path. I will concede that point as it has nothing to do with the point I was making/.

But, I have the raw numbers in a spreadsheet at work and can provide tomorrow. They were obtained from ESPN splits section under Romo’s stats.

How did you compile the different years? Your numbers look like they are off.

 

[Aviano90]

How did you compile the different years? Your numbers look like they are off.

I filtered each year, copied the numbers, pasted into excel, and put in formulas to run the math. Feel free to do the same.

 

[GMO415]

Wasn't there an article that said that on the pace Dak was headed, he'd statistically surpass every QB who ever played for the Cowboys?

 

[HellCrowe]

No one is game planning for Dak's "deep passes" trust me.

 

[AdamJT13]

I compared Romo's last season, given this was his ability before the team decided to move away from him.

Except that 2014 wasn't Romo's last season. And you purposefully chose 2017 for Dak instead of 2016, which would be much more similar to the circumstances Romo had in 2014.

Not to mention I also gave numbers for his 2nd season which you ignored.

Oh, right, that season when Romo never attempted a single pass over 40 yards. So like the OP said, we weren't exactly a "deep ball juggernaut" offense back then, huh?

And as I said, it isn't just about how often the QBs throw deep, but rather also how effective they are when they do it.

You mean like how "terrible" 2017 Dak Prescott had a 105.3 passer rating on throws of 21 yards or more, compared with career-best 2014 Tony Romo's 105.4 rating on those throws?

 

[Galian Beast]

I filtered each year, copied the numbers, pasted into excel, and put in formulas to run the math. Feel free to do the same.

Same numbers as you for Romo on completion rating except on average 1-10 yards where I got 72.2 percent.

 

[Galian Beast]

I have never seen you petulant, Adam. it is an interesting look for you. That is an adorable strawman; I never said that terribly off-target was better.

Fact is that "catchable" throws do not consider DB leverage when they are "dropped" and as such it is misleading. That goes doubly so when you have these miniscule samples that make up Dak's deep throw dataset. 3 or 4 extra misses would be huge considering the denominators.

When Dak throws inside into inside leverage it is not a good throw amd with vice versa and the perpendicular orientation. QBs are taught to place the ball opposite the leverage for a reason. Watching Dak's deep ball cut ups it becomes exceedingly obvious how this is an issue.

If you cannot actually discuss the mechanics behind the statistics and continue to go with this childish form of retort instead then that is extremely disappointing.

Don't think I've ever been this disappointed in Adam.

 

[Aviano90]

Same numbers as you for Romo on completion rating except on average 1-10 yards where I got 72.2 percent.

I'll have to look at it tomorrow.

 

[Galian Beast]

Except that 2014 wasn't Romo's last season. And you purposefully chose 2017 for Dak instead of 2016, which would be much more similar to the circumstances Romo had in 2014.




Oh, right, that season when Romo never attempted a single pass over 40 yards. So like the OP said, we weren't exactly a "deep ball juggernaut" offense back then, huh?




You mean like how "terrible" 2017 Dak Prescott had a 105.3 passer rating on throws of 21 yards or more, compared with career-best 2014 Tony Romo's 105.4 rating on those throws?

2014 was Romo's last full season, and 2017 was Prescott's last full season. 2017 was also Prescott's 2nd year and I also threw in 2007 which was Romo's 2nd year as a starter.

As I've said, not only does Romo go deeper than Prescott more often through out his career, particularly when the team was built to do so, but he was always more accurate when he did.


QB rating on such a small sample size? You must have been hacked...

 

[LocoBates]

Wasn't there an article that said that on the pace Dak was headed, he'd statistically surpass every QB who ever played for the Cowboys?

When was the article published? 2016?

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

No one is game planning for Dak's "deep passes" trust me.

I don't think that's the point of this thread. I think the point is people have become fascinated with the "deep ball" even though it wasn't something Romo did much better. It's just a easy and lazy criticism to have of Dak.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Analytics are gonna be the death of real football. I watched Romo, Aikman, and Staubach trust me Dak ain't on any of those guys level. He may have benefited from stepping into a better situation than the others, but I have yet to see Dak wow me with his talent.

Just a few for starters... and as a rookie.