ESPND: Romo gets it done late more often than not

[Nova]

Do you have any facts to back that up? Especially the Brady part.

Yessir. Thought this graphic had made it around these boards already, but here it is again.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Not at all.

Here is what I said, .. "After saying all of that, I am not opposed to getting a better QB if we can, ... but that is true of any position."

Not sure where I said it would be easy.

My point is, as much as I like Romo, and as good as I think he is, I am not "married" to any player, and am always willing to replace them with someone better if we can.

Why would you want to get rid of a player you liked? Let me ask you a question, if Jerry could construct human looking robots that would go out and kick tail and go 16-0, would you want that? You don't care who it is, as long as someone out there in Cowboys jerseys is winning?

Please don't tell me you "root for the laundry, not the players" because that is even stupider. The Cowboys are not a magical, noble organization to which people bestow magical allegiance. They are a business out to get your money. The only constant about this team is, and will always be, Jerry. If you root for the Cowboys and not the players, then all you are doing is rooting for the one guy most people want to get rid of the most.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Yessir. Thought this graphic had made it around these boards already, but here it is again.

Do these stats include when Brady was lucky enough to get three cracks at a game winning drive in one game against the Saints? (turnover on downs, interception, TD)

 

[Kevinicus]

Yessir. Thought this graphic had made it around these boards already, but here it is again.

Hmm, that doesn't really take into account the defense and what they did. Better information would be whether or not drives resulted in points to tie or take the lead as opposed to wins and losses. Not sure anyone would have time to figure that out.

 

[Nova]

Do these stats include when Brady was lucky enough to get three cracks at a game winning drive in one game against the Saints? (turnover on downs, interception, TD)

This was done between this season and last season.

 

[Nova]

Hmm, that doesn't really take into account the defense and what they did. Better information would be whether or not drives resulted in points to tie or take the lead as opposed to wins and losses. Not sure anyone would have time to figure that out.

The game winning drives account for that. Or rather, they rule out the interference of a defense blowing a lead, but it doesn't account for game tying drives.

It's not perfect, but with the large sample size (omitting last year's rookies of course), I'd say it's pretty reliable information.

 

[ufcrules1]

Why would you want to get rid of a player you liked?

If a better player was available? Why would I want to keep a guy just because I like him? You think with your head, not your heart. The ultimate goal is to win. You see, Jerry has the same exact thinking you do, he gets personally attached to players vs. doing what it takes to win.

You don't care who it is, as long as someone out there in Cowboys jerseys is winning?

I know this wasn't addressed to me but YES! If he is out there kicking butt, I will naturally start to like him.

Please don't tell me you "root for the laundry, not the players" because that is even stupider.

Wow, you are calling this guy stupid? Nothing he said was even remotely stupid.

 

[mahoneybill]

Because of the up-and-down nature of Tony Romo's last few seasons, here's a stat that may get overlooked.

Romo has 10 game-winning drives in fourth quarter or overtime since the start of the 2011 season, tied for the most in the NFL over that span.

Most Game-Winning Drives
In 4th Qtr/OT Since 2011
Tony Romo Cowboys 10
Andrew Luck Colts 10
Matthew Stafford Lions 10
Andy Dalton Bengals 9
Matt Ryan Falcons 9
Eli Manning Giants 9
Here's a brief recap of each one:

September 18, 2011 (Week 2) at 49ers
Cowboys overcome 10-point fourth-quarter deficit
The Cowboys overcame a 24-14 fourth-quarter deficit in San Francisco to beat the 49ers 27-24 in overtime. Romo threw a 77-yard pass to wide receiver Jesse Holley on the Cowboys first play in overtime to set Dallas up for the chip-shot field goal.

September 26, 2011 (Week 3) vs Commanders
Romo’s long pass sparks win
A week later, Romo was at it again. He completed a 30-yard pass to Dez Bryant on third and 21 with the Cowboys at their own 30, trailing by one point and 2:20 left in the fourth quarter. Dallas went on to win 18-16 after a Dan Bailey 40-yard field goal.

November 20, 2011 (Week 11) at Commanders
Romo beats Commanders again in similar fashion
Romo broke the Commanders hearts again, this time in overtime as he completed a 26-yard pass to Dez Bryant on 3rd and 15 near midfield. The Cowboys won 27-24 on a Bailey field goal three plays later.

November 24, 2011 (Week 12) vs Dolphins
Cowboys win as time expires on Thanksgiving
Four days later, Romo instrumented his fourth game-winning drive of the season. He led the Cowboys down the field on a 10-play, 54-yard drive and Dallas won 20-19 on a Bailey field goal as time expired.

Highest Total QBR, 4th Quarter/OT,
Score Margin -8 to 8 points
Since 2011
Andrew Luck 84.4
Aaron Rodgers 78.9
Drew Brees 73.1
Tony Romo 71.4
October 21, 2012 (Week 7) at Panthers
Romo’s first of five game-winning drives in 2012
Romo led the Cowboys past the Panthers 19-14 with his first of five game-winning drives in 2012. Romo engineered a short drive that ended with a Bailey field goal with 3:28 left in the fourth quarter to push Dallas ahead.

November 18, 2012 (Week 11) vs Browns
Cowboys survive in overtime
Romo survived seven sacks in the game to lead the Cowboys on a fourth-quarter comeback after trailing 13-3 entering the quarter. He led a drive to tie the game at 20 with six seconds left. They went on to win 23-20 against the Browns in overtime. A key play was a 28-yard touchdown pass to Bryant erasing that 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.

December 2, 2012 (Week 13) vs Eagles
Romo posts 95.5 Total QBR in comeback win
Romo threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns and posted a 95.5 Total QBR as the Cowboys scored 21 fourth-quarter points in a 38-33 win. Romo threw another key pass to Bryant, a go-ahead 6-yard touchdown with 5:40 left to put the Cowboys up for good.

December 9, 2012 (Week 14) at Bengals
Cowboys overcome nine-point fourth-quarter deficit
A week later, Romo led the Cowboys past the Bengals overcoming a 9-point deficit in the fourth quarter. This included a 27-yard touchdown pass to Bryant with 6:44 left and a 13-play, 50-yard drive resulting in a Bailey game-winning 40-yard field goal as time expired (Cowboys win 20-19).

December 16, 2012 (Week 15) vs Steelers
Romo’s third straight game-winning drive in the fourth quarter/overtime
Romo engineered his third game-winning drive in as many weeks with a 27-24 overtime win against the Steelers. It wasn’t much of a drive as Ben Roethlisberger threw a pass picked off by Brandon Carr, Romo kneeled down on Dallas’ first play and Bailey kicked a 21-yard field goal to win.

November 3, 2013 (Week 9) vs Vikings
Romo throws go-ahead TD with 42 seconds left
And last Sunday Romo went from goat to hero in one quarter. His fourth-quarter interception with 4:35 left dropped the Cowboys’ win probability to 21.4 percent. But he got a second chance and engineered a nine-play, 90-yard drive to put the Cowboys ahead of the Vikings with 42 seconds left, including a key 34-yard pass to Bryant.

Romo will look to work the same magic against the Saints this Sunday that almost gave the Cowboys a miracle comeback win last season against New Orleans. The Cowboys trailed 31-17 with 4:45 left in the fourth quarter when Romo led two quick touchdown drives (1:10 and 1:14) to send the game to overtime. This included a 19-yard touchdown pass to Miles Austin on 4th and 10 with 21 seconds left. Dallas went on to lose 34-31 in overtime.

For the rest---> http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/77534/romo-gets-it-done-late-more-often-than-not

But the TV announcers always cite Eli M as the king of all comeback masters

 

[85Cowboy85]

Do these stats include when Brady was lucky enough to get three cracks at a game winning drive in one game against the Saints? (turnover on downs, interception, TD)

The chart comes from here:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.co...he-dallas-cowboys-are-americas-chokers/23434/

The guy who wrote the article Kacsmar has done a lot of great work for pro football reference chronicling 4QC and GWD. The definitions are somewhat complicated but he gives a checklist here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=3401

Did the team win the game?
- If the answer is no, then move onto the next game.

Did the QB ever have the ball in the 4th quarter or overtime with a tie or deficit of 1--8 pts?
- If the answer is no, then move onto the next game.

Did the winning team ever trail in the 4th quarter?
- If the answer is no, then this cannot be a comeback.

Did the offense produce the winning points or was it a return by the defense/special teams?
- If the answer is yes, then it’s a game-winning drive (and if there was a deficit, a comeback).
- If the answer is no, then the QB/offense does not get credit unless they did something to force a tie or get a lead at some point.

Did the offense produce a tying drive and then watched the defense/special teams score the winning points?
- If the answer is ‘yes’, then it’s a comeback, but not a game-winning drive.

In other words if you are correct. Brady gets credit for the GWD and 4QC there even though he messed up two times. (here's the link to his 4QC page. Look at the bottom and you can see he is credited with both:http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=BradTo00 )

If there is a problem with this method it's that it punishes QBs for playing on bad defensive teams. If Tony puts together a drive to pull ahead in a game but the defense blows the lead he gets credited with the loss. That probably accounts for why Drew Brees and Tony Romo are behind people like Roethlisburger, Flacco and Smith. Both are very productive quarterbacks who played with many sub par defensive teams.

 

[DandyDon1722]

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are 6-2 when they have a QB rating of BELOW 60.

Tom Brady has thrown THREE INT's in TWO separate AFC Championship games.

If those stats don't make a case for a team carrying a QB then I don't know what it means.

 

[5Stars]

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are 6-2 when they have a QB rating of BELOW 60.

Tom Brady has thrown THREE INT's in TWO separate AFC Championship games.

If those stats don't make a case for a team carrying a QB then I don't know what it means.

Oh SNAP! And those were "spotlight" games. lmao

But, all that will go over some posters head because they will just say, Well, Brady and Manning have won Superbowls, so they get an out...

 

[perrykemp]

The fact that Aaron Rodgers is 5-22 in 4th quarter comebacks / game-winning drives while at the same time having the regular season QB rating in the NFL history is as strange of a statistical oddity as you are every going to see. It defies logic.

The interesting part of it makes you wonder how much 4th quarter / game winning drives really factors into how people evaluate QBs.

In general, Rodgers is considered to be on a HOF track and is considered elite -- while his terrible 4th quarter record is sometimes mentioned, it's rarely held against him when people talk about his credentials.

It IS odd.

 

[DogFace]

FAN boards like this don't attract a lot of intelligent fans. FANS are swayed by their emotions they don't use their heads they post from the heart. Romo is one of the top QB's in the league and most in the media will tell you that but he also has his shortcomings that most Cowboy FANS can't seem to come to grips with. Romo's stats back up that he's an excellent regular season QB and they also back up that's he's not a very good postseason/elimination game QB. It's the contrast between his regular season performances and his elimination game performances that's given him the negative reputation he has. He's great until the season is down to do or die. There's a good Romo and a bad Romo. Marino was a great QB who's legacy was built much like Peyton Manning during the regular season.

Marino set NFL records during the regular season and held a number of all-time passing records at the time of his retirement. Peyton Manning is arguably the greatest regular season QB in history. He has a record 4 league MVP awards and is on pace for his 5th in 2013. Romo has peers who outproduce him every season in every category. He holds no official NFL passing records. He's a very good QB who needs some playoff wins and a championship to gain respect.

You're right. I think and hope that will change soon.

 

[DFWJC]

The Jets game on Sept 11th 2011 commemorating the anniversary of the most tragic event in our nations history was a "spotlighted" game no matter how you want to cut it. They picked the Cowboys to be in that game because they're America's Team. That game had a meaning that far exceeded the game of football. A game doesn't have to have your season riding on it to be a "spotlighted" game. I don't pick every Sunday or Monday night game and proclaim them as "spotlighted" games. I mentioned the Denver game as being a "spotlighted" game because the Cowboys were going up against the hottest QB the game had ever seen up to that point.

It was a game the football world was anticipating due to Manning's and the Broncos start and it turned into a game of the ages which magnified Romo's turnover in the final couple of minutes. Elimination games are a different story and it's the repeated mistakes in those games especially the mistakes in the final minutes that's given Romo the negative reputation he has.

You should be embarrassed.
This "spotlighted" horsecrap is beyond dumb.
Sorry KJJ, but I have to call you out on this nonsense.

 

[percyhoward]

If there is a problem with this method it's that it punishes QBs for playing on bad defensive teams.

No kidding. It's W-L. That's not an individual stat.

(This data is a month old, but I've got some gumbo to eat, so the update can wait. These are career numbers, so they haven't changed much.)

In these late-and-close situations, of the six QB listed, Romo's rating is 2nd-best. His defense's rating is the worst.

Rodgers 218 of 341 2895 yd 22 td 7 int 103.7
GB Defense: 199 of 370 2723 yd 14 td 14 int 74.4
diff: +29.3

Romo 325 of 529 4534 yd 31 td 13 int 100.1
Dalllas Defense 324 of 550 4131 yd 22 td 14 int 85.2
diff: +14.9

PManning 513 of 791 5987 yd 39 td 18 int 94.6
Ind/Den Defenses 423 of 734 4505 yd 23 td 39 int 64.0
diff: +30.6

Brees 464 of 714 5248 yd 33 td 22 int 89.4
SD/NO Defenses 430 of 784 5012 yd 29 td 27 int 72.4
diff: +17.0

EManning 285 of 476 3791 yd 32 td 21 int 89.2
NYG Defense 326 of 565 4015 yd 30 td 19 int 83.5
diff: +5.7

Brady 399 of 657 4868 yd 31 td 22 int 85.3
NE Defense 356 of 679 4030 yd 19 td 37 int 57.1
diff: +28.2

 

[Idgit]

The fact that Aaron Rodgers is 5-22 in 4th quarter comebacks / game-winning drives while at the same time having the regular season QB rating in the NFL history is as strange of a statistical oddity as you are every going to see. It defies logic.

The interesting part of it makes you wonder how much 4th quarter / game winning drives really factors into how people evaluate QBs.

In general, Rodgers is considered to be on a HOF track and is considered elite -- while his terrible 4th quarter record is sometimes mentioned, it's rarely held against him when people talk about his credentials.

It IS odd.

It might just indicate that Rodgers is reluctant to play low-probability football, even in situations where the outcome of the game might require it. Tony talks a lot in the press about that point in the game where you have to start making low-probabilty throws and gambling that it pays off for you. That they'll consciously force throws in those situations if they think they need to to get the job done.
It's possible Rodgers is just playing high percentage football to get early leads, avoid GW situations, and that, when he's actually in them, he's unable to come through because he's taking the same high probability passes the defense is giving him and not risking the statistically challenging passes when he probably should be.

 

[gbrittain]

The magical QB rises above it all theory...interesting. How is that working for Eli and Ben this year? Welcome to no running game and poor defense. What Romo has been able to do year after year is the exception and not the rule when playing with a sub par defense and running game . Again, just look at Eli and Ben. Where is there greatness and clutch factor this year? Funny how those factors magically disappeared as soon as the defense and running games went missing.

Some people need to learn the difference between legacy and performance. Tony's legacy unfortunately is DOA because of the numb skulls that refuse to build a serious strength on the team other than the passing game that hinges on Tony's right arm.

No kidding. It's W-L. That's not an individual stat.

(This data is a month old, but I've got some gumbo to eat, so the update can wait. These are career numbers, so they haven't changed much.)

In these late-and-close situations, of the six QB listed, Romo's rating is 2nd-best. His defense's rating is the worst.

Rodgers 218 of 341 2895 yd 22 td 7 int 103.7
GB Defense: 199 of 370 2723 yd 14 td 14 int 74.4
diff: +29.3

Romo 325 of 529 4534 yd 31 td 13 int 100.1
Dalllas Defense 324 of 550 4131 yd 22 td 14 int 85.2
diff: +14.9

PManning 513 of 791 5987 yd 39 td 18 int 94.6
Ind/Den Defenses 423 of 734 4505 yd 23 td 39 int 64.0
diff: +30.6

Brees 464 of 714 5248 yd 33 td 22 int 89.4
SD/NO Defenses 430 of 784 5012 yd 29 td 27 int 72.4
diff: +17.0

EManning 285 of 476 3791 yd 32 td 21 int 89.2
NYG Defense 326 of 565 4015 yd 30 td 19 int 83.5
diff: +5.7

Brady 399 of 657 4868 yd 31 td 22 int 85.3
NE Defense 356 of 679 4030 yd 19 td 37 int 57.1
diff: +28.2

It is heresy you speak Percy!!! Heresy!!! It is of no importance this defense thing you speak of.

By the way could someone tell me how the clutch factor is working for Ben R and Eli this year? Oh...sorry never mind. I think I know the answer.

 

[percyhoward]

I did another one for 4th qtr or OT, tied or trailing by 1-8 points. These are career numbers.

Rodgers 95.5
Romo 94.1
PManning 91.7
Brees 87.6
EManning 86.3
Brady 82.9

Interestingly, taking leads out of the sample did nothing to change the order of the rankings.

 

[KJJ]

You should be embarrassed.
This "spotlighted" horsecrap is beyond dumb.
Sorry KJJ, but I have to call you out on this nonsense.

Anything that doesn't shine a positive spotlight on Romo is nonsense to you. The ones who have yet to recognize that he has a few warts should be embarrassed.

 

[Risen Star]

I firmly believe that if Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger or insert QB name here had the hand Romo's been dealt in Dallas over the years, they'd be a ringless "choke artist" too.