We're not just talking about first round RBs, we are talking about top 5. There is a big difference.
How did the top 5 RBs do since 2001?
Hmm...
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LaDainian Tomlinson - 1st ballot HOF
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Ronnie Brown - pedestrian, but decent career with Miami.
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Cadillac Williams - started off great, winning OROY, and then a mix of injuries and bad play ruined the rest of his career.
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Cedric Benson - didn't start off well in Chicago based on where he was drafted, but had a few good years in Cincinnati.
- Reggie Bush - certainly didn't live up to the hype that surrounded him before the draft, but didn't have a bad career. He was a good all-around player for NO, contributing to their Super Bowl victory and had some good seasons recently with MIA and DET.
- Darren McFadden - Had a good season for us last year, and 1 good season with the Raiders but never lived up to his status as a top 5 pick.
- Trent Richardson - Actually had an okay rookie year and then the wheels fell completely off the wagon. He's still young enough to have a Cedric Benson kind of late career revival, but it's not looking too promising for him. Probably the biggest bust of the group.
- Ezekiel Elliot - ????
The track record for the RBs taken in the top 5 isn't all that impressive. Pre-draft, these guys were all heralded as franchise players who would be major contributors for their teams for years to come. Obviously, only LT was able to live up to his draft status.
It's unlikely that Elliot matches the kind of career that LT had, but I'd say if he falls somewhere between Ronnie Brown/Reggie Bush and LT, then it would be an overall successful pick for us. I think he can be a consistent 1000 yard rusher, especially behind our O-Line...but it remains to be seen. It's certainly possible that he flops, just like many of the top picks have...but only time will tell.