How would you rank our chances of getting to the Super Bowl?

[TX_Yid]

I feel like we have as good a chance as anybody. We have a team that is built to play anywhere, hot, cold, loud, quiet, whatever, doesn't matter.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Since you ask what our chances are of reaching the SB, I'll make up a percentage:

15% chance we reach the SB.

I think the first round will be our biggest challenge--most of our players have never been there, and it's another monkey on the back of those who have.

If we can win in round one, I think our chances of reaching the SB move up to around 40%.

That's way too low a percentage.

We can score on anyone.

We got a Holyfield punchers chance... Not a Tyson's knockout ... But a Holyfield's.

 

[dfense]

We win the wild card then if we play Green Bay in Green Bay, we pay for an average defense and get crushed. No way do I want to play Green Bay in their house.

I cringed when Dallas went to Seattle.....and won.
I cringed when Dallas took on New Orleans....and won.
I cringed when Dallas went to Philly....and won.
I cringed for the classic trap game of playing the Colts....

I'm not cringing like I used to anymore.

 

[JoeBoBBY]

That 'like' is for the first half of that post. Would be a great rematch. But gotta say I'd enjoy another Super Bowl more.

Yeah, I know.... but in my mind, if the Cowboys beat that loudmouth, cocky, but very very good football team in Seattle, the place where Romo had the bobbled snap, would be so goooood.
But a Trophy is a Trophy.

 

[tyke1doe]

Seattle just does not strike fear in me. I think Dallas matches up well with them. They do not have a passing game that is great, contain Wilson and stop Lynch are the main factor. Defense, Seattle is fast and aggressive and Dallas OL like last time should be able to blow them off the line. Sherman vs Dez bring it on, other players have also been stepping on for Dallas like Cole Beasly. I would be more concerned with fast strike offense than I would with Seahawks.

The Cowboys will play a scheme that takes away Marshawn Lynch and Russell running the ball and put the onus on Seattle's pedestrian receivers. That's where you beat the Seahawks on offense. Keep Russell in the pocket and make him throw the ball to his receivers. They don't have a Dez.

 

[perrykemp]

Biggest challenge will be winning the turn-over battle.

This year's Green Bay, Seattle, and New England team are historically good at limiting turnovers. The Cowboys have been just average (24 turnovers).

It's hard (but not impossible obviously) to beat teams who are so amazing in limiting their turnovers.

I, for one, want them to rest Murray this week and give his hand a chance to heal.

 

[Idgit]

Biggest challenge will be winning the turn-over battle.

This year's Green Bay, Seattle, and New England team are historically good at limiting turnovers. The Cowboys have been just average (24 turnovers).

It's hard (but not impossible obviously) to beat teams who are so amazing in limiting their turnovers.

I, for one, want them to rest Murray this week and give his hand a chance to heal.

Yeah. When they throw it well and don't turn it over, it makes it tough on us defensively. Meaning, we have to outscore them. At least we've got a fighting chance at that right now if Romo keeps outplaying every other QB in the league.

 

[joshjwp]

I say 22% chance and I'll give you the math I used to come up with it.

If everything was equal we would have a 16.67% chance because there are 6 playoff teams. 1/6=16.67% However, we know not everything is truly equal.

The 6 teams in the playoffs % chance has to add up to 100%. 90% is way too high because that would mean the other 5 teams combined for only a 10% chance.

I gave whoever wins the South only a 5% chance. I also gave the Cardinals and a 3rd string QB only a 5% chance. I assumed the Packers beat the Lions and the Lions end up a wild card. I decided knowing all of the Lions games would be road games they had to be lower than the literal 1/6 chance just by getting in. So I made them 10%.

That left 80% chance between the Seahawks, Packers, and Cowboys. Since they are likely to be seeded in that order I assumed their chances were in that order. The 3 teams are close enough that home field is likely to matter.

If they were equal chances 80%/3=26.67%. So Since I think the Seahawks will get home field I gave them higher than that and went with 30%.

That leaves 50% chance left between the Packers and Boys. Since we would have to play the Packers on their turf they have to be higher than us. So I gave them 28% and us 22%.

That is the most thought out number I can come up with anyway.

 

[Risen Star]

That's way too low a percentage.

We can score on anyone.

We got a Holyfield punchers chance... Not a Tyson's knockout ... But a Holyfield's.

Is this a pre or post steroids Holyfield?

 

[Doomsday101]

GB at home in Jan is not a lock they have a losing record in post season at home. In 2010 they went to the SB but all those games were on the road. They are 2 and 4 in GB post season so all of this stuff about how they will be tough at home? They are a passing team who can struggle in winter conditions.

 

[endersdragon]

If the Seahawks could lose it would be so helpful for us because it would either lead to a first round bye if the Cards lose or going to Arizona instead of likely Green Bay 2nd round if Arizona wins.

 

[Arkyvarminter]

I can see us beating any team in the tournament except for GB.

Not saying I would give up if we somehow get stuck playing GB, but ideally I would want to be able to avoid them. However, I just do not think that's possible.

I think its Seattle we don't want to play. Id rather play GB in GB than go to Seattle. What are the odds they lose Twice at home by the same team in the same year?

 

[perrykemp]

GB at home in Jan is not a lock they have a losing record in post season at home. In 2010 they went to the SB but all those games were on the road. They are 2 and 4 in GB post season so all of this stuff about how they will be tough at home? They are a passing team who can struggle in winter conditions.

Packers are averaging 41 points per game at home this season. That's a LOT.

Having said that, they really haven't had a single bad weather game. They've had some games that have been cold, but nothing that could be considered bad conditions. Hard to predict how their offense would be tempered in a bad weather game.

The Packers are primarily a pass team, however, they are a better running team that people think. They've actually rushed for 1765 yards this season as compared the Cowboy's 2180 -- in other words the Cowboys rush for roughly 25 more yards a game than the Packers.

Lacey has the same ypc (4.7) as Murray per rush -- ie Lacey is no slouch and seems especially effective recently. Lacey actually has more TDs (13) than Murray (12).

My point is that while the Packers are mainly a passing team, they are more balanced in previous years.

I think the Detroit game this week @ Lambeau will tell us a lot about the Packers. They are starting to act like the Saints used to be -- dominant at home but very vulnerable on the road.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I cringed when Dallas went to Seattle.....and won.
I cringed when Dallas took on New Orleans....and won.
I cringed when Dallas went to Philly....and won.
I cringed for the classic trap game of playing the Colts....

I'm not cringing like I used to anymore.

Keep cringing, it seems to work. lol

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I think we have the third best chance of reaching the SB after GB and Seattle.

 

[Doomsday101]

Packers are averaging 41 points per game at home this season. Thats a LOT.

Having said that, they really haven't had a single bad weather game. They've had some games that are cold, but nothing that could be considered bad conditions. Hard to say how their offense would be tempered in a bad weather game.

The Packers are primarily a pass team, however, they are a better running team that people think. They've actually rushed for 1765 yards this season as compared the Cowboy's 2180 -- in other words the Cowboys rush for roughly 25 more yards a game than the Packers.

Lacey has the same ypc (4.7) as Murray per rush -- ie Lacey is no slouch and seems especially effective recently. Lacey actually has more TDs (13) than Murray (12).

My point is that while the Packers are mainly a passing team, they are more balanced in previous years.

I think the Detroit game this week @ Lambeau will tell us a lot about the Packers. They are starting to act like the Saints used to be -- dominant at home but very vulnerable on the road.

Yes and in Jan they have not done well at Lambeau, this is not Lombardie Packers they are a passing teams and have not faired well with Rodgers in games played at home in Jan. They have done great on the road in indoor stadiums and warmer areas.

 

[perrykemp]

Yes and in Jan they have not done well at Lambeau, this is not Lombardie Packers they are a passing teams and have not faired well with Rodgers in games played at home in Jan. They have done great on the road in indoor stadiums and warmer areas.

Agreed that GB haven't done well @ Lambeau in the playoffs recently.

What's isn't 100% clear is if that was because of the weather/conditions or the fact that the teams they've been playing where just plain better than they were.

 

[Doomsday101]

Agreed that they haven't done well.

What's isn't 100% clear is if that was because of the weather/conditions or the fact that the teams they've been playing where just plain better than they were.

The home loss to NY condition were poor but what I am getting at is they are not some unbeatable dynasty even at home. Teams like packers are a lot more dangerous on a fast track and while Rodgers plays in GB he was born and raised in Cal, the cold is not a friend of his. They will be tough if we play them but I don't see them as some team who at home just can't be beat, frankly I would be more concerned playing them at ATT

 

[KJJ]

The way the Cowboys are playing right now they have at least a 50/50 chance but those odds go down if they have to play at Seattle or Green Bay. The Packers have looked virtually unbeatable at Lambeau this season and the Cowboys have never beaten the Packers at Lambeau in the playoffs. The Packers would be the toughest team for the Cowboys to get past even at home due to their coverage issues and lack of a pass rush. Rodgers would shred the Cowboys regardless where the game is played unless they could somehow find a pass rush. Although the Cowboys beat Seattle on the road in week 6 Seattle is playing much better football now looking like the team they did last year at this time. Their crowd would be in a frenzy it's way too hostile an environment in Seattle in January to give the Cowboys a great chance there but as we've seen this season you can't rule anything out with this team.

The Cowboys have beaten some long odds this season so much so they have an opportunity on Sunday to go 12-4 which would have been a laughable prediction back in August. I've been following the Cowboys since the 72 season and have never seen a season so unexpected as this one. The Cowboys looked like a 5 win team entering the season and have already won 11 games and the division. Jason Garrett has gone from a joke and a coach on the hot seat to possibly coach of the year. What were the odds on that? Romo who many thought would be in decline this season coming off back surgery is having his best season and is being talked about for league MVP. What a crazy, whacky, wonderful season this has been so far.

 

[BringBackThatOleTimeBoys]

I'll predict a playoff win.

Then they have to face GB or Seattle.

Seattle will be harder next time around.