I think it would be a failure, rookie QB or not. They need to win a playoff game if they get a bye and are still rolling by the time the season ends. Now if we go on a 4 game skid to enter the playoffs or lose 3 of 4 or whatever, then maybe the expectations change.
Every one of those players will tell you getting the top seed and having a great season means nothing if you fall right away. We've seen it all too often in this area. Mavs 2007. Cowboys 2007. Stars this past season (although they did win a playoff series). Rangers this past season. All were top seeds and flamed out the 1st round.