Look at the top 10 rushers in the league last year....in fact look at every back that to rushed for over 1000 yards and you will see how many of them are in their first 3 years in the league. Only 2 out of 13 are. Bell and Hill. The other 11 are veteran backs. None of them are rookie backs. Hill barely broke 1000 yards in his 2nd year and Bell was in his 3rd year.
Everyone keeps saying that backs come in and make an immediate impact. very few can become every down workhorse backs until they are about to be labelled too old around these parts.
I'm not sure I necessarily agree with how you are looking at it. For example were only two of the 13 in their first two years because of the difficulty in the position translating or is it more because of opportunity and talent level?
Take the thirteenth runners. Hill was a rookie splitting time. Bell was a second year guy. The rest of the bunch bar Justin Forset pretty much all hit a thousand yards by their second year minimum if it wasn't for injuries or splitting time limiting number of carries.
Hill Lacy lynch forte and Morris all had it in their first year in the nfl.
Gore McCoy foster Charles and bell all hit it their second year. Of this bunch only bell had more than 155 carries his rookie year and he played behind an injury riddled terrible line that year. The rest didn't have the opportunity to be the main guy.
That leaves Forset who was a journeyman til this past year. His first year getting the bulk of the carries he makes a thousand. Demarco we know had injury issues. Lamar miller in his third year and first getting the bulk makes a thousand.
From last years first three rounds, tre mason hit almost 800 yards and wasn't getting he bulk of the carries until after mid season. Hill split time and hit a thousand. The rest never got a chance. We will see when Hyde gets to be the main man this coming year.
The 2013 draft we already talked about lacy and bell. Every one else was rbbc. Giovanni Bernard was the most actively involved out of the rest but even he has never seen more than 170 carries a season due to hit scat back style and being used as a major receiving treat.
This tells me that it is either lack of talent or opportunity that keeps a back from producing. If you have the talent and the bulk of carries, you can do it from the outright and it doesn't take you years to hone a skill to adjust to nfl running and be productive.
Applying that to this year, if you believe Gordon or gurley have the skill and you draft them and give them the chance, I don't see why they couldn't produce for you especially because of this ol. It won't take a rb three or more years to develop into a bell cow imo. Even if it takes til the second year, you are still getting years two through five on a rookie contract for a first round pick.
Having said that, I'd loving to get ap for this small window, I just wouldn't trade too much for him. Maybe a third at most and he'd have to consider taking about what Demarco got on a three year deal. Otherwise I'm looking draft.
