Lets Ponder the Patriots Deflationgate Issue

WPBCowboysFan

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You are right, it doesn't look good for the Pats. When we weigh the evidence and compare that to the denial of knowledge of ball tampering by Brady, they don't add up. The only plausible explanation is that someone is lying. I'm still conflicted with who that is. It just seems too convenient to blame Brady.

Brady has stated in public he likes his balls at 12.5 psi, which is a legal ball. When the balls are certified by the officials at 13 psi and then turned over to each team, would it be illegal for the Pats balls to then be deflated 0.5 psi to 12.5 psi, the way Brady likes them? I say no, because that is within the allowable tolerance. In this case there is no intent to cheat.

Now let's say the deflation to the balls to 12.5 psi was accidentally improperly done, not to Brady's wishes but just a fraction of a psi lower. The balls would be illegal at this point but unintentionally. Intent to cheat is hard to prove my friend.

I'm no blind Pats homer, I just don't see how intent to cheat can be proven in this case.

We'll have to see where the "investigation" takes things. And one thing is certain. No matter what the investigation shows, there will be people questioning its validity. If its favorable for the Pats, the majority of people will feel the NFL is in the tank for Kraft and Company. If the Pats are found guilty and penalized, Pats fans will be playing the victim card.
 

JoeKing

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We'll have to see where the "investigation" takes things. And one thing is certain. No matter what the investigation shows, there will be people questioning its validity. If its favorable for the Pats, the majority of people will feel the NFL is in the tank for Kraft and Company. If the Pats are found guilty and penalized, Pats fans will be playing the victim card.

Screw the Pats fans feelings, if the Pats are found to have skirted the rules then they must be punished but I reserve that judgment for those in power. I will not join the growing lynch mob before the investigation is concluded.
 

Rogah

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Brady is 14-3 at home in the play-offs and 3-3 in road games.
Wait a second. You mean to tell me that a playoff team is better at home than they are on the road??!?!? Well that settles it. Obviously they're cheating.

Oh by the way, since (and including) the year Dallas won their first Super Bowl of the Aikman/Smith era, Dallas is 12-2 in the playoffs at home or neutral sites, 1-7 on the road. Pretty fishy, huh? Guess we're cheating too. :( :( :(
 

Rogah

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Screw the Pats fans feelings, if the Pats are found to have skirted the rules then they must be punished but I reserve that judgment for those in power. I will not join the growing lynch mob before the investigation is concluded.
Maybe you'll answer the question no one else in this forum has answered:
Keeping in mind the Vikings got caught tampering with balls earlier this season and got nothing more than a letter of warning, what punishment do you think the Patriots should face?
 

khiladi

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Wait a second. You mean to tell me that a playoff team is better at home than they are on the road??!?!? Well that settles it. Obviously they're cheating.

Oh by the way, since (and including) the year Dallas won their first Super Bowl of the Aikman/Smith era, Dallas is 12-2 in the playoffs at home or neutral sites, 1-7 on the road. Pretty fishy, huh? Guess we're cheating too. :( :( :(

Wow.. you mean that whole era was the Aikman era?
 

Miller

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It's obvious you are not paying attention.

1. If you don't gain possession, it's not a fumble. Again, it's irrelevant, because we are talking about FUMBLES, meaning the player had possession.
2. Again, LAST YEAR, that 'horrible' is caused by the ANOMALY of the Denver game. That is 6 FUMBLES in one game. As I said, Drew tries to argue that taking this statistical anomaly out is random, but it's not. See above once again.
3. It's entirely possible the Patriots could pull off shenanigans for multiple years. They were pulling off Spygate for 7 years. Brady is 14-3 at home in the play-offs and 3-3 in road games.
4. Why do people nonsensically just keep talking about Brady as if ball protection is just exclusive to him? Further, nobody is arguing deflated footballs is an ABSOLUTE protection against fumbling. People can still fumble with a deflated ball.
5. Even Brady had 10 fumbles last year, but it was recovered 5 times. Less Bounce...

Most of these responses are rooted in this idiocy.

Dude you do realize that EVERYONE of your responses comes with built in excuses? Right? The reason you didn't get a response out of me yesterday when I posted the article because you posted 3 follow up posts and all of them had prefaces or built in factors that would make your theory true. It doesn't work that way. You can't say they fumble less because of air pressure and then say "well even if he did fumble he recovers more because of air pressure." You know why because you have ZERO idea how a ball bounces with less pressure. You have no clue if a ball is fumbled more at 13 psi or 12.5. You have no clue whether all 32 teams have balls at 13.5 or 12.5. And AGAIN you have no explanation for how a team can get away with this for 7 years despite refs having measured balls up until 10 minutes before half. Another thing, you are making an excuse for a 6 fumble Denver game but do you know how many multiple/larger fumble games the other 31 teams had. You are cherry picking for an agenda. Plain and simple. If they cheated we will find out but right now there is zero proof.

Here is an easy explanation. Bill B likes RBs with a history of holding onto the ball. See FA pickups, etc. Remember when Jimmy cut Curvin Richards the last game of year for fumbling? Coaches are like that
 

khiladi

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Maybe you'll answer the question no one else in this forum has answered:
Keeping in mind the Vikings got caught tampering with balls earlier this season and got nothing more than a letter of warning, what punishment do you think the Patriots should face?

So you mean the Patriots were already of aware of this as an issue and have Spygate in the background?
 

JoeKing

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Maybe you'll answer the question no one else in this forum has answered:
Keeping in mind the Vikings got caught tampering with balls earlier this season and got nothing more than a letter of warning, what punishment do you think the Patriots should face?

I don't know that to be fact but if there has been a precedence set by only sending a warning letter to the Vikings then I expect the league to be consistent with that precedence and only send a warning letter to the Patriots.
 

khiladi

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Dude you do realize that EVERYONE of your responses comes with built in excuses? Right? The reason you didn't get a response out of me yesterday when I posted the article because you posted 3 follow up posts and all of them had prefaces or built in factors that would make your theory true. It doesn't work that way. You can't say they fumble less because of air pressure and then say "well even if he did fumble he recovers more because of air pressure." You know why because you have ZERO idea how a ball bounces with less pressure. You have no clue if a ball is fumbled more at 13 psi or 12.5. You have no clue whether all 32 teams have balls at 13.5 or 12.5. And AGAIN you have no explanation for how a team can get away with this for 7 years despite refs having measured balls up until 10 minutes before half. Another thing, you are making an excuse for a 6 fumble Denver game but do you know how many multiple/larger fumble games the other 31 teams had. You are cherry picking for an agenda. Plain and simple.

LOL, I was speaking specifically in the context of Drew's objections:

Looking at all fumbles, and not just fumbles lost, we come up with similar findings.

First, it should be noted that teams playing indoors fumble the ball less frequently, the foremost reason being that the ball won’t be wet from precipitation or damp from late-night condensation. The below graphic looks at all fumbles over five-year periods during the last 25 years. As you can see, of the top 25 team-periods, 17 are dome teams, including 11 of the top 15.

Drew was wrong and Sharp looked at TOTAL FUMBLES as well.

Drew objects to Sharp's issue with the Denver game. You said the numbers jumped high last year but nobody says anything, but Sharp himself already accounted for and the guy your quoting even mentions it and tries to invalidate an entire analysis of Sharp on this one anomaly.
There is no way you can tell me six fumbles by the same team is some phenomenon that happens on a yearly basis in the NFL.

Drew objected to Sharp taking out the Denver game of six fumbles, but fails to mention that this one anomaly effectively makes his claim that five year cycles as a 'random' measure void. He doesn't mention this point that once adjusted for, whether one chooses five, four, three, or two cycles, the Patriots would STILL be close to the top.

What you and Drew are objecting to is relative statistical adjustments that are common practice for statistics and trying to argue that it invalidates the findings is just a wash.

Drew admits that 2007 the numbers jumped drastically and argues that it can be attributed to Tom Brady throwing the ball away. Yet, we are talking about fumbles when one has possession. Further, his pass attempts for 2007, 2009 and 2010 are in the mid-500s meaning right where they were in his first 7 years, meaning he was throwing the ball just as much.

Just stop..
 
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khiladi

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I don't know that to be fact but if there has been a precedence set by only sending a warning letter to the Vikings then I expect the league to be consistent with that precedence and only send a warning letter to the Patriots.

That's not even what happened. This happened on the sidelines IN FULL VIEW of everybody and the Panthers were also engaging in it.

http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-v...of-game-ball-incident-during-panthers-vikings

Blandino also mentioned during this time:

"You can't do anything with the footballs in terms of any artificial, whether you're heating them up, whether it's a regular game ball or kicking ball, you can't do anything to the football," Blandino said. "So that was noticed during the game, both teams were made aware of it during the game and we will certainly remind the clubs as we get into more cold weather games that you can't do anything with the football in terms of heating them up with those sideline heaters."

The NFL was saying it was going to send out a specific reminder. So the Patriots tampered with balls OUTSIDE of view, did it AFTER this incident and AFTER THIS REMINDER and after Spygate...
 

Miller

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LOL, I was speaking specifically in the context of Drew's objections:



Drew was wrong and Sharp looked at TOTAL FUMBLES as well.

Drew objected to Sharp taking out the Denver game of six fumbles, but fails to mention that this one anomaly effectively makes his claim that five year cycles is a abd measure. Once adjusted for, which is a relative adjustment which is more accurate in statistics, his five year excuse doesn't hold any water.

Drew admits that 2007 the numbers jumped drastically and argues that it can be attributed to Tom Brady throwing the ball away. Yet, we are talking about fumbles when one has possession. Further, his pass attempts for 2007, 2009 and 2010 are in the mid-500s meaning right where they were in his first 7 years, meaning he was throwing the ball just as much.

Just stop..

Stop what? I'm objectively looking at both sides. I have admitted that they may manipulate balls. I have also shown perfectly reasonable truths in why they many not manipulate balls. Whereas you are convinced, no matter the outcome, that you have found a conspiracy that would make the NFL look horrible and that no team, despite all of them wanting to bust the Pats during Spygate, ever found in 7 years. Sounds crazy huh?

You are taking it personally like I'm attacking you. You and I have agreed on most things Coach Red from Day 1 so I have nothing against your posting. I do have issues, as a whole, at a witch hunt, turned conspiracy theory, that people like Dan Marino and others are all starting to laugh at now.
 

Miller

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That's not even what happened. This happened on the sidelines IN FULL VIEW of everybody and the Panthers were also engaging in it.

http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-v...of-game-ball-incident-during-panthers-vikings

Blandino also mentioned during this time:



The NFL was saying it was going to send out a specific reminder. So the Patriots tampered with balls OUTSIDE of view, did it AFTER this incident and AFTER THIS REMINDER and after Spygate...

Again, how do you know this and how would they get away with it for 7 years? You are talking about EVERY game, in every stadium, dealing with a 10 minute window from when the refs have it until the balls are on the field....and they pulled this off for 7 years. Come on man, think a little.
 

khiladi

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Again, how do you know this and how would they get away with it for 7 years? You are talking about EVERY game, in every stadium, dealing with a 10 minute window from when the refs have it until the balls are on the field....and they pulled this off for 7 years. Come on man, think a little.

They got away with Spygate for seven years. They could handle balls for seven years. It doesn't take long to deflate balls. So why are we talking about other QBs liking balls in a particular way if it can't allegedly happen on a systematic level?

And who said there is a ten minute window?
 

Rogah

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Wow.. you mean that whole era was the Aikman era?
Oh, if you want the Aikman era only stats then here you go: 10-1 at home/neutral and 1-3 on the road.

Obviously Aikman was cheating. :( :( :(

I have no idea how having a better home record means someone was cheating but you used that as evidence against Brady so it must say the same thing about Troy. :( :( :(
 

khiladi

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Oh, if you want the Aikman era only stats then here you go: 10-1 at home/neutral and 1-3 on the road.

Obviously Aikman was cheating. :( :( :(

So now your including neutral fields in your stats? Why not take out the 3 SBs to show 7 and 1 and then we got two play-offs, with home field advantage going to those SBs... So that's about how many seasons worth compared to Brady?
 

Rogah

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Again, how do you know this and how would they get away with it for 7 years?
He doesn't. He is just making stuff up and using that to justify his hatred of all things New England.

Patriots don't fumble a lot? They're cheaters!!
Brady has a better home record than road record? They're cheaters!!
Patriots line up in a formation no one has seen before? They're cheaters!!
 

khiladi

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Answer my questions and I'll answer yours.

Your question is fundamentally flawed because you approach it like the SAME issue. It's not.

The Vikings and Panthers did this on the sideline in PLAIN view. They were not hiding. And the Patriots surely can't claim ignorance regarding the rules when this happened, can they?
 

khiladi

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What part of "home/neutral" do you not understand?

I don't think I included Brady's neutral records in there, did I? You do realize the difference between your stats regarding Brady and Aikman's right?
 
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