Marion and Julius - Roles Changing?

[RomoIsBack]

long as we win i happy^

 

[percyhoward]

Thru 56 carries:
2006
Jones 45
Barber 11

2007
Jones 31
Barber 25

Tell me that's not an improvement.

 

[Bleu Star]

Thru 56 carries:
2006
Jones 45
Barber 11

2007
Jones 31
Barber 25

Tell me that's not an improvement.

I love the shift that's taking place. Barber is on the field when it matters most. Works well for me.

 

[22forever]

I think they know that Barber is the more consistent RB. In games where JJ has the hot hand and gets off to a quick start I would expect him to get the majority of the carries. When Jones is on he is a fun back to watch but he has been just way too inconsistent.

I agree with your points...I don't know why everyone has a problem with a two back system...as long as they can coexhist it only helps our offense to have both of them on our team

 

[percyhoward]

I love the shift that's taking place. Barber is on the field when it matters most. Works well for me.

And it *is* a change in the situations in which they're used. IOW, Barber's extra carries this year aren't the result of us having more 3rd downs or more red zone plays.

Thru 2 games last year, Barber only had 2 carries on either 1st or 2nd down outside the red zone. This year he already has 15 such carries. Here are the percentages of those runs compared to his total carries:

2006
2 (of 11) 18%

2007
15 (of 25) 60%

60% of Barber's runs so far have come on either 1st or 2nd down outside the red zone. Situations in which Julius was used almost exclusively at this time last year.

 

[theogt]

And it *is* a change in the situations in which they're used. IOW, Barber's extra carries this year aren't the result of us having more 3rd downs or more red zone plays.

Thru 2 games last year, Barber only had 2 carries on either 1st or 2nd down outside the red zone. This year he already has 15 such carries. Here are the percentages of those runs compared to his total carries:

2006
2 (of 11) 18%

2007
15 (of 25) 60%

60% of Barber's runs so far have come on either 1st or 2nd down outside the red zone. Situations in which Julius was used almost exclusively at this time last year.

There you go. Now that's a persuasive argument.

 

[GlitzCowboy]

My only concern with making Barber the starter is over whether or not we have distinct plans of going after McFadden. Between Julius and Marion is no question, but do we dare make Barber #1 basically ending the thought of keeping him happy in the #2 role for future purposes. Do we want to keep him next year if we also get McFadden? If he's #1, I highly doubt he'd agree to return to a backup role. We'd lose him, no question about it.

Maybe we should make him the highest paid backup RB in nfl history, lay our intentions right on the table and give him a role he could continually be happy in. Kinda like Jason Garretts QB career. Sure Jason wanted to start, but he found a place he could fit that was pretty darn good behind Aikman that was probably better than half the starting jobs he could've gotten around the league throughout his career, and he was a part of 3 championships.

 

[percyhoward]

There you go. Now that's a persuasive argument.

Explore the possibility that you might be paying just a little more attention now.

Do what you did and you will get called on it almost every time.

 

[theogt]

Explore the possibility that you might be paying just a little more attention now.

Do what you did and you will get called on it almost every time.

Again, there's a meaningful difference.

One compares regular season games to make a conclusion about regular season games. The other compares preseason games to make a conclusion about regular season games.

That's a meaningful difference that has nothing to do with my perspective changing from then to now. Surely you're smart enough to see that.

Also, your newest argument actually adds more angles than just looking at total carries. Clearly a different scenario.

 

[percyhoward]

Again, there's a meaningful difference.

One compares regular season games to make a conclusion about regular season games. The other compares preseason games to make a conclusion about regular season games.

That's a meaningful difference that has nothing to do with my perspective changing from then to now. Surely you're smart enough to see that.

Also, your newest argument actually adds more angles than just looking at total carries. Clearly a different scenario.

I find it hard to believe that the words "Barber" and "first team" didn't clue you into the fact that I was talking about Barber and the first team. I mentioned it casually because I never imagined that someone would assume that I was basing a prediction about Barber on what Brad Johnson and the 2nd unit did. If I had been, that whole part about keeping an eye on what happened in the "dress rehearsal" game (when the starters get the most playing time) would have been meaningless.

But assuming you didn't understand then, you understand now, so what's the difference? The only reason I was using preseason data to draw my conclusion was because I drew it during the preseason. Your identical conclusion was based on regular season data because you made it during the regular season.

It's the same flippin' conclusion.

 

[theogt]

I find it hard to believe that the words "Barber" and "first team" didn't clue you into the fact that I was talking about Barber and the first team. I mentioned it casually because I never imagined that someone would assume that I was basing a prediction about Barber on what Brad Johnson and the 2nd unit did. If I had been, that whole part about keeping an eye on what happened in the "dress rehearsal" game (when the starters get the most playing time) would have been meaningless.

But assuming you didn't understand then, you understand now, so what's the difference? The only reason I was using preseason data to draw my conclusion was because I drew it during the preseason. Your identical conclusion was based on regular season data because you made it during the regular season.

It's the same flippin' conclusion.

Sure thing, buddy.

 

[percyhoward]

Sure thing, buddy.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[Bleu Star]

I'm glad to see you two kissed and made up. :

 

[Hoov]

I'm glad to see you two kissed and made up. :

they both agree that barber is getting more opportunities but argue over semantics from another thread months ago. its time to just let it go

 

[AdamJT13]

And it *is* a change in the situations in which they're used. IOW, Barber's extra carries this year aren't the result of us having more 3rd downs or more red zone plays.

Thru 2 games last year, Barber only had 2 carries on either 1st or 2nd down outside the red zone. This year he already has 15 such carries. Here are the percentages of those runs compared to his total carries:

2006
2 (of 11) 18%

2007
15 (of 25) 60%

60% of Barber's runs so far have come on either 1st or 2nd down outside the red zone. Situations in which Julius was used almost exclusively at this time last year.

Looking at the first two games last year isn't relevant. They settled into their current roles later in the season. It would be more useful, although still possibly misleading, to compare their carries to two similar games later in the season.

Better yet, take a closer look at the situations when they've gotten the ball. What is Barber's role? -- He mostly gets the ball when we're either inside or close to the red zone, on third downs or when we're trying to run out the clock in the fourth quarter.

Not surprisingly, 20 out of his 25 carries this season have come in those situations. He's had eight carries inside the red zone, five more carries inside the opponent's 30, six when we've been trying to run out the clock in the final four minutes with double-digit leads (remember the five straight runs at the very end of the Giants game?) and one more on third down. Another of his carries came on a second-and-24 play when he replaced Julius -- it wasn't a third-and-long, but it was the same offensive package.

Compare that to Julius, whose role has been to be the primary ballcarrier early in games, in our end of the field and close to midfield and on first and second downs, while giving way to Barber often on third downs and near the red zone. Indeed, he has 18 carries in his typical situations, compared to those five for Barber (or four, if we don't count the second-and-24 situation). Julius' 12 other carries were one on third down, six inside the red zone, three more inside the 30 and two running out the clock.

Looking at the combined totals, it's 23 carries on first and second downs outside the 30 in normal situations (18 Julius, five Barber), two carries outside the 30 on third downs (one each), 14 carries inside the red zone (eight Barber, six Julius), 10 more carries between the opponents' 20 and 30 (five each) and eight when running out the clock (six Barber, two Julius). (Note that some of the clock carries for both have come inside the 30, and that some of Barber's clock and red zone carries have come on third or fourth down, but I'm not double-counting any of them for either player in this list.)

I don't think anyone would be surprised by those situational splits at all, nor are any of them different from what their roles have been since the middle of last season.

Last year, Julius got 185 non-situational carries to Barber's 51. This year, it's 18 to five -- basically the exact same proportion. The only difference is that we've had fewer of the non-situational carries because our offense usually has moved the ball easily, so we've spent more time inside the opponents' 30. Last year, they combined for 135 carries inside the 30 (no matter the situation). This year, they're on pace for a whopping 216 of them, combined.

In addition, they've already had a combined eight carries when running out the clock in the final four minutes, which puts them on pace for 64 this season. Last year, they combined for only 22 carries TOTAL in the final four minutes of games (17 Barber, five Julius), and only 11 of those were run-out-the-clock carries (seven Barber, four Julius).

So when you really look at it, their roles haven't really changed at all. The only thing that has changed is the frequency of the situations we've been in. So, Barber might be getting a higher percentage of carries than normal, but it's been because we've been in his situations more than normal, not because he's getting more carries in Julius' situations.

 

[Doomsday101]

Looking at the first two games last year isn't relevant. They settled into their current roles later in the season. It would be more useful, although still possibly misleading, to compare their carries to two similar games later in the season.

Better yet, take a closer look at the situations when they've gotten the ball. What is Barber's role? -- He mostly gets the ball when we're either inside or close to the red zone, on third downs or when we're trying to run out the clock in the fourth quarter.

Not surprisingly, 20 out of his 25 carries this season have come in those situations. He's had eight carries inside the red zone, five more carries inside the opponent's 30, six when we've been trying to run out the clock in the final four minutes with double-digit leads (remember the five straight runs at the very end of the Giants game?) and one more on third down. Another of his carries came on a second-and-24 play when he replaced Julius -- it wasn't a third-and-long, but it was the same offensive package.

Compare that to Julius, whose role has been to be the primary ballcarrier early in games, in our end of the field and close to midfield and on first and second downs, while giving way to Barber often on third downs and near the red zone. Indeed, he has 18 carries in his typical situations, compared to those five for Barber (or four, if we don't count the second-and-24 situation). Julius' 12 other carries were one on third down, six inside the red zone, three more inside the 30 and two running out the clock.

Looking at the combined totals, it's 23 carries on first and second downs outside the 30 in normal situations (18 Julius, five Barber), two carries outside the 30 on third downs (one each), 14 carries inside the red zone (eight Barber, six Julius), 10 more carries between the opponents' 20 and 30 (five each) and eight when running out the clock (six Barber, two Julius). (Note that some of the clock carries for both have come inside the 30, and that some of Barber's clock and red zone carries have come on third or fourth down, but I'm not double-counting any of them for either player in this list.)

I don't think anyone would be surprised by those situational splits at all, nor are any of them different from what their roles have been since the middle of last season.

Last year, Julius got 185 non-situational carries to Barber's 51. This year, it's 18 to five -- basically the exact same proportion. The only difference is that we've had fewer of the non-situational carries because our offense usually has moved the ball easily, so we've spent more time inside the opponents' 30. Last year, they combined for 135 carries inside the 30 (no matter the situation). This year, they're on pace for a whopping 216 of them, combined.

In addition, they've already had a combined eight carries when running out the clock in the final four minutes, which puts them on pace for 64 this season. Last year, they combined for only 22 carries TOTAL in the final four minutes of games (17 Barber, five Julius), and only 11 of those were run-out-the-clock carries (seven Barber, four Julius).

So when you really look at it, their roles haven't really changed at all. The only thing that has changed is the frequency of the situations we've been in. So, Barber might be getting a higher percentage of carries than normal, but it's been because we've been in his situations more than normal, not because he's getting more carries in Julius' situations.

Barber is entering the game earlier and taking entire series and Dallas moves the ball when he is in the game. Yes I do think the roles are different than last season and even the coaching staff has said they would use both backs different than BP and his staff did.

 

[Hoov]

Barber is entering the game earlier and taking entire series and Dallas moves the ball when he is in the game. Yes I do think the roles are different than last season and even the coaching staff has said they would use both backs different than BP and his staff did.

I know, how many times will this have to be explained, just watch the game.

 

[AdamJT13]

Barber is entering the game earlier and taking entire series

He's been doing that since the middle of last season. And he did it a little bit earlier last season, too.

 

[theogt]

He's been doing that since the middle of last season. And he did it a little bit earlier last season, too.

One thing is that with the way the defense played late last season resulting in an unbalanced pass/run ratio, we didn't get to see this much of Barber's new role late in the season last year. So, yeah, this does look and feel like something new.

 

[Doomsday101]

He's been doing that since the middle of last season. And he did it a little bit earlier last season, too.

Barber was not coming in that early in the game and I do see a change in how they were rotated last season to what is going on right now.