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Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Toruk_Makto, Jan 11, 2020.

  1. buybuydandavis

    buybuydandavis Well-Known Member

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    You have to work harder to have a convincing case that McCarthy is wrong.

    A problem with one side correlational analysis in sports analytics is that it doesn't factor in how the other team adjusts to you, *which is the whole point* with play action.

    You say "And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly". Let's test that out with a thought experiment.

    Do you really think that our play action passing game would be just as effective if Zeke and Pollard are out and Chunn is our lead ball carrier?

    Play calling is a causal intervention in the game, calling for a causal interventional analysis. That's what I would expect out of a professional sports analytics group.
     
    FuzzyLumpkins likes this.
  2. FuzzyLumpkins

    FuzzyLumpkins The Boognish

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  3. CyberB0b

    CyberB0b Village Idiot

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    He said it in the announcement press conference with Jerry and Stephen. Go watch it yourself.

    See above.

    Also,

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bu...es-interview-head-coach-dallas-cowboys-2020-1
     
    Runwildboys, TexasFrog and Aviano90 like this.
  4. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Lol.

    I'm a statistician by training and I've found Engineers excel at little aside from being high on the autism spectrum.
     
    Runwildboys and obidiah like this.
  5. ShortRound131

    ShortRound131 Well-Known Member

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    I’ll trust the guy with the super bowl ring

    Call me crazy
     
    brooksey1, Luther, HotDog37 and 2 others like this.
  6. obidiah

    obidiah Well-Known Member

    886 Messages
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    Guys forget about McCarthy, it's the next hire after him that has me really concerned. I heard he is not even into football yet.
     
    Runwildboys and Captain-Crash like this.
  7. CATCH17

    CATCH17 1st Round Pick

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    If the defense bites on the run it doesn’t matter how well you ran it before.
     
  8. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Dak's more successful with play action, just like 27 of the 32 QB with the most attempts in 2019 -- no matter how often they take the snap from under center. And "overwhelmingly in shotgun" is the norm. Prescott was near the middle of the league in percentage of pass attempts from under center.

    Here's Dak, plus 10 other QB who were in shotgun more than he was in 2019.

    Attempts from Under Center
    (as a percentage of total attempts)

    Prescott 21.6%
    Dalton 20.3%
    Allen 19.3%
    Wilson 17.9%
    Brissett 16.1%
    Wentz 14.7%
    Minshew 13.6%
    Rivers 13.2%
    Watson 12.9%
    Jones 10.2%
    Mahomes 8.5%

    Same QB, with passer rating on play-action pass attempts (vs. with no play action)
    Prescott 107.3 (97.6)
    Dalton 97.2 (73.7)
    Allen 110.4 (77.1)
    Wilson 118.8 (102.8)
    Brissett 93.7 (86.3)
    Wentz 100.6 (90.1)
    Minshew 142.7 (83.7)
    Rivers 120.4 (83.0)
    Watson 94.9 (100.2)
    Jones 112.0 (82.9)
    Mahomes 99.5 (107.1)

    With a couple of exceptions, most of these guys were better -- and usually much better -- with play action. How do you explain why play action worked for all these QB who spent more time in shotgun than Dak?
     
  9. Zman5

    Zman5 Well-Known Member

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    You don't need analytics if you have a Ivy league education.
    - signed the Clapper.
     
  10. gjkoeppen

    gjkoeppen Well-Known Member

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    How can you be so blind to such a simple logic. If teams have a good running game defenses play defenses designed to stop the run thus making their pass defense more vulnerable. Since you can't or don't get this it makes me think because of your background you more of a geek and have very little actual NFL knowledge.
    .
     
  11. ConstantReboot

    ConstantReboot Well-Known Member

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    Mike McCarthy is not a fraud. To call him that is being naive and nonsensical. He has a point when using play action the run has to work. I agree with him. That's because if the run isn't working and we keep using play action, the defense will just ignore it and hone in on the QB.

    I do hope that play-action should be used quite frequently in our offense. Garrett was an idiot not to incorporate it as part of our offense. There should be no reason why a team that runs the ball on 1st and 2nd down so much is one of the least in using play action. That is how dumb Garrett is. If anything, Garrett is a fraud for failing to use play action. Not McCarthy.
     
    JMPearson likes this.
  12. ConstantReboot

    ConstantReboot Well-Known Member

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    That's silly. How can you call it BS while he hasn't even played a down yet? He hasn't been name HC for more than a week yet and already people are ready to run him out of town.

    We gave Garrett more than a decade to prove his worth. I think a head coach like McCarthy should be afforded at least 3 to 4 years or even less to see what he can do with the team at the present moment.
     
    TexasFrog likes this.
  13. Little Jr

    Little Jr Well-Known Member

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    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/play-action-passing-and-game-conditions
     
    Toruk_Makto and percyhoward like this.
  14. Playmaker247

    Playmaker247 Well-Known Member

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    So you think you have to be able to run for play action to work effectively?
     
  15. Buzzbait

    Buzzbait Well-Known Member

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    If you were the new HC, would you be willing to tell the world including your future opponents what you do, what you know, how you know it, and how you intend to use it? And if you don't tell all, you get labeled a "fraud" by negative football fans. :confused:
    The Cowboys already use analytics as do many if not all the teams. How individual coaches utilize this data is up to them, but if they don't, they risk forfeiting a possible advantage to their opponents.

    Considering McCarthy's winning record compared to what we know about Garrett based on 10 years experience, I don't understand how anyone could not see McCarthy as a serious upgrade over Garrett till time proves different.
     
  16. FuzzyLumpkins

    FuzzyLumpkins The Boognish

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    Is there an explanation why 15% of QBs do not get the benefit in there? All I saw cursorily was it was averages extrapolated and biased.

    What we should be interested in is the Cowboys offense and their opposing defenses.
     
  17. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    Beast dont care.

    Garrett is out there icing his own kicker, blowing challenges, misusing timeouts, botching the clock, ect……..should I keep going, because I can.
     
    brooksey1 likes this.
  18. Little Jr

    Little Jr Well-Known Member

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    15% dont get the benefit? As far as seeing bias, see what you want, there is no bias. Just because the data shows you are wrong, and many others, doesnt mean its bias. Its just data showing running well, or a lot, as no affect on play action. There is plenty of data showing this, the only thing showing the run helps playaction is people saying it. Lol
     
  19. Noclaf

    Noclaf Well-Known Member

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    Is this the worst thread ever on this site? Dude has had the job for what 5 damn days!
     
    TexasFrog and Beast_from_East like this.
  20. TexasFrog

    TexasFrog Well-Known Member

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    Man I didn’t know we had so many people qualified to coach here. A guy who spent his life in the league and won a SB vs Cowboy zoners. Who knew? This is comical
     
    Noclaf likes this.

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