MLB Offseason thread

[Nightman]

Here's an interesting stat...

"There were 69,110 plate appearances last year by players in their age-30 season and older — that is nearly 15,000 fewer than 2007."

The old, expensive guys are being shoved out the door for less expensive younger guys. I think part of this is due to teams being less reluctant to give guys 30+ long-term deals. And the ones that have recently like the Yankees, Tigers, Rangers and Angels have regretted it.

I came up with a great way for NY to get rid of Ellsbury......one of those terrible deals

He is due 68m over 3 years and has a NTC clause.......he also counts 21m against the Luxury Tax
Yasmany Tomas of ARI is due 46m over the next 3 years but he only counts 11m against the Tax

Tomas is a liability in the field and just got arrested for doing over 105 mph and might go to jail.....ARI wants to drop him badly

My idea is to swap Ellsbury for Tomas...........Ells can still play CF and steal bases and has a home in PHO.....NY would send a Pitching prospect to cover the other 22m and they got a deal

NY saves 11m against the Lux tax and uses it to sign Cobb/Arrieta/Lynn
Then they trade Tomas, DFA him outright or keep him as platoon DH ......it is win win

Someone get me Cashman's number or at least George Costanza

 

[Nightman]

Although I enjoy football more, i know a lot more about baseball, as long as we don't get into analytics.

It's nice to have another place to talk baseball besides astro baseball talk.

WAR....... what is it good for........lol

 

[RodeoJake]

WAR....... what is it good for........lol

Absolutely nothing. I have no idea how that stat is quantified. Give me the good ol days when the most difficult stat to calculate was ERA.

 

[kskboys]

WAR....... what is it good for........lol

Absolutely nothing. I have no idea how that stat is quantified. Give me the good ol days when the most difficult stat to calculate was ERA.

I think the WAR stat is absolutely useless. ERA, W/L record, H/INNINGS pitches.

ERA tells you how many earned runs a pitcher lets in. How could anything be more relevant?

 

[RodeoJake]

I think the WAR stat is absolutely useless. ERA, W/L record, H/INNINGS pitches.

ERA tells you how many earned runs a pitcher lets in. How could anything be more relevant?

Now ERA can somewhat misleading. Bad defensive teams can inflate it substantially. BABiP and GBR are good stats to adjust ERA. Roy Oswalt was a good example. The Astros were not good defensively his last few years with them. His ERA while his GBR remained the same. His BABIP went up as his strikeout rate went down.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I think the WAR stat is absolutely useless. ERA, W/L record, H/INNINGS pitches.

ERA tells you how many earned runs a pitcher lets in. How could anything be more relevant?

Bill James, the Grandfather of baseball stats dislikes WAR also.

He pointed out in a column not long ago that Andrew Jones, while a great defensive center fielder was rated as 25% better than Willie Mays using dWar (or based upon defensive WAR stats).

The challenge is sorting out what exactly the "average player" used to base WAR on is actually worth.

 

[kskboys]

Bill James, the Grandfather of baseball stats dislikes WAR also.

He pointed out in a column not long ago that Andrew Jones, while a great defensive center fielder was rated as 25% better than Willie Mays using dWar (or based upon defensive WAR stats).

The challenge is sorting out what exactly the "average player" used to base WAR on is actually worth.

I just don't understand the point of it.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I just don't understand the point of it.

The purpose of it is to (supposedly) be able to compare one player to another in a way that encompasses all factors: offensive, defensive and the position they play on the team AND be able to compare player from era X to player from era Y.

The trouble is there are still subjective factors to it and the two entities that promote WAR can't even agree on how WAR should be figured. I just know when someone tries to tell me that Andrew Jones was 25% better defensively than Willie Mays then something is wrong.

 

[kskboys]

The purpose of it is to (supposedly) be able to compare one player to another in a way that encompasses all factors: offensive, defensive and the position they play on the team AND be able to compare player from era X to player from era Y.

The trouble is there are still subjective factors to it and the two entities that promote WAR can't even agree on how WAR should be figured. I just know when someone tries to tell me that Andrew Jones was 25% better defensively than Willie Mays then something is wrong.

Doesn't work.

The only way to compare players from different era's is to compare how each player did compared to guys in his era. If you truly want to see if a player would still be great in a different era, that's mostly just for fun conjecture. You could, I suppose study his skillset and tendencies and attempt to use that extrapolated info and force it into a different era, but I'm not seeing the point. It's OK to just say 2 guys were both great.

 

[RodeoJake]

The purpose of it is to (supposedly) be able to compare one player to another in a way that encompasses all factors: offensive, defensive and the position they play on the team AND be able to compare player from era X to player from era Y.

The trouble is there are still subjective factors to it and the two entities that promote WAR can't even agree on how WAR should be figured. I just know when someone tries to tell me that Andrew Jones was 25% better defensively than Willie Mays then something is wrong.

Jones was a great CF, but better than Mays? I don't think so. Only someone who didn't see Mays play would believe that. The analytics people don't like to admit it, but much of their fielding evaluations are subjective. Take Springer for example. In the opinion of analytics, he was a poor RF. Watching him play, painted a very different picture.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Jones was a great CF, but better than Mays? I don't think so. Only someone who didn't see Mays play would believe that. The analytics people don't like to admit it, but much of their fielding evaluations are subjective. Take Springer for example. In the opinion of analytics, he was a poor RF. Watching him play, painted a very different picture.

Agreed. And if you believe the defensive evaluations are subjective then anything that includes those, like WAR is subjective at best.

 

[Nightman]

@Trouty Vladdy took the Angels cap for the Hall of Fame...... 1st one for the Angels

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Yeah, there aint no way in hell Jones was a better fielder then Mays. There may be only two or three guys, ever, that are in that conversation and Jones is not one of them.

 

[Trouty]

@Trouty Vladdy took the Angels cap for the Hall of Fame...... 1st one for the Angels

We’ve kinda known he was going to. I wish we had more representation in the Hall — more homegrown players (any). Vladdy was amazing to watch, and he did love the Angels.

 

[Trouty]

The purpose of it is to (supposedly) be able to compare one player to another in a way that encompasses all factors: offensive, defensive and the position they play on the team AND be able to compare player from era X to player from era Y.

The trouble is there are still subjective factors to it and the two entities that promote WAR can't even agree on how WAR should be figured. I just know when someone tries to tell me that Andrew Jones was 25% better defensively than Willie Mays then something is wrong.

wRC+ can be used for the first paragraph.

Stop being salty about WAR, Altuve fans!

 

[Nightman]

We’ve kinda known he was going to. I wish we had more representation in the Hall — more homegrown players (any). Vladdy was amazing to watch, and he did love the Angels.

You should see his kid .....he play for TOR minor leagues with Dante Bichette's son

 

[Trouty]

You should see his kid .....he play for TOR minor leagues with Dante Bichette's son

Vlad’s son, Night? It so, yes, we rue his son not in our farm!

Like, it was a no damned brainer!!!!!

 

[kskboys]

Jones was a great CF, but better than Mays? I don't think so. Only someone who didn't see Mays play would believe that. The analytics people don't like to admit it, but much of their fielding evaluations are subjective. Take Springer for example. In the opinion of analytics, he was a poor RF. Watching him play, painted a very different picture.

Springer? Yeah, that's just silly. Springer is one of the best D right fielders in the game.

 

[Cowboys_22]

wRC+ can be used for the first paragraph.

Stop being salty about WAR, Altuve fans!

WAR means nothing without a WS ring.

 

[Trouty]

WAR means nothing without a WS ring.