My Yearly Report on What I Am Hearing About the Draft

[DFWJC]

If you pick a player who turns out to not perform at or near the level that you picked him in, then you did overdraft him.

What concensus mocks and pundits say before or during a draft have no bearing on whether a player ultimately is found out to be over or under drafted....based on the real world performance.

That pre-draft ranking stuff is based on what they think at the time (fantasy), not what eventually becomes reality.

The exception would be devastating injuries.

We now know, for example, that Akili Smith was 100% for sure overdrafted.
Tom Brady was 100% for sure underdrafted.

Obviously, we don't have crystal ball going into the draft and everyone misses some, but there is fantasy and then there is reality.

 

[DFWJC]

Few teams have "whiffed" as badly or consistently with offensive linemen as this organization has. You cannot chalk up that kind of prolonged futility by simply snapping your fingers and damning your lack of fortune.

It is clear something is and has been wrong with our evaluation of the position. Either it is our GM or the individuals he has been listening to. Brewster is just the most recent example.

So true.

Hard to explain why, but something has been missing post Jimmy era.

 

[Alexander]

So true.

Hard to explain why, but something has been missing post Jimmy era.

I honestly think there are several factors in play, chief of which is the organizational stress to the position. We only seem to draft them when we have to. To me it is clear we do not value the position, much like we did with linebackers after Johnson left. When Coach Parcells came aboard, it flipped to now, where we have taken a linebacker high practically every year for nearly the last half decade.

The teams that historically draft linemen well usually have a commitment to addressing the position consistently (and not necessarily with just high risk gambles). It also has to come from the top. Jerry Jones seems to be content over the years to pay them as opposed to developing them. You can even look at how he hangs onto veterans until the bitter end to note that he has very little interest and/or confidence in getting young in the trenches. Right now, he might not have any choice.

 

[burmafrd]

Our inability to draft O linemen is I think an indication of basic weakness for that area in the scouts. It has been shown that we consistently under rate O linemen. The last couple of years very good O linemen went one to two rounds higher then we had them rated at. And that has been going on for a while.

 

[TheCount]

Our inability to draft O linemen is I think an indication of basic weakness for that area in the scouts. It has been shown that we consistently under rate O linemen. The last couple of years very good O linemen went one to two rounds higher then we had them rated at. And that has been going on for a while.

No kidding, I don't see how anyone can debate it at this point. We suck at drafting offensive linemen because we suck at evaluating them.

It's the same reason just a few years ago, there was no point in drafting anyone high because hey we've got this line that has been together so long, and blah blah blah.

Fast forward a few years, and we've cut our LT (and thankfully replaced him with a guy that shows definite promise), our starting RG is old and a FA, our starting RT is pretty much done and our starting RG is not performing up to his pay.

Meanwhile the fans are scrutinizing preseason tape hoping Travis Bright and Phil Costa have potential because we don't have anyone else on the roster that shows even a glimmer of being ready for prime time.

It's utterly ridiculous.

 

[Illini88228]

Jerry Jones seems to be content over the years to pay them as opposed to developing them. You can even look at how he hangs onto veterans until the bitter end to note that he has very little interest and/or confidence in getting young in the trenches. Right now, he might not have any choice.

Actually, at least when BP was here, it was Jerry who would push for the young linemen to get playing time, and Parcells who wouldn't trust them. I've heard Jerry hint at the fact that it irritated him a lot that Parcells never let young linemen like Stephen Peterman into the game. Then when they finally had to give up on him, he went to Detroit and played solidly.

From what I've heard from Hos and others, I get the impression that people way overstate the number of times Jerry overrules the coaches and scouts on things like this.

 

[unionjack8]

You should be flattered Hos. Somebody took your info and posted it on the other board. They did give you credit for it without coming out and naming you though.

that was me, i didnt name Hos directly, didnt know the forum nerd etiquette on these things lol. I did not take credit for anything though and mentioned i got it from a mod on another board. I just wanted to share some great info with other cowboys fans. Hos, i'll keep it strictly within these walls in future if you like. Didnt want to step on any toes.

 

[Idgit]

Few teams have "whiffed" as badly or consistently with offensive linemen as this organization has. You cannot chalk up that kind of prolonged futility by simply snapping your fingers and damning your lack of fortune.

I'm not sure that's true, to begin with. And nobody's snapping any fingers. At least I'm not. The only point that's being made in this thread was that the two OL in question weren't reaches where they were taken.

It is clear something is and has been wrong with our evaluation of the position. Either it is our GM or the individuals he has been listening to. Brewster is just the most recent example.

The real issue is that we haven't valued the OL enough to draft players high there. The few times we did, we missed. Otherwise, we had talented players in place and filled holes in FA.

But our evaluation of the FA OLs has been pretty good. And with Free, and maybe Costa and Young, we've done a decent job drafting potential in later rounds.

 

[ThreeandOut]

Our inability to draft O linemen is I think an indication of basic weakness for that area in the scouts. It has been shown that we consistently under rate O linemen. The last couple of years very good O linemen went one to two rounds higher then we had them rated at. And that has been going on for a while.

The Cowboys have gotten tougher in their grading of offensive linemen in recent years. I suspect that is due to their past draft failures at the position.

In their defense, I think they did a reasonably good job in their grading in 2010. All of the players they had first round grades on started and performed fairly well. The one player that went in round 1 that the Cowboys didn't have as a first rounder, Anthony Davis, started for SF but struggled in his first year. The OL selected in rounds 2-3, whom they had rated lower, generally didn't set the world on fire with their play last year. The one player they clearly misrated was Roger Saffold who started at LT for the Rams but the Cowboys had rated as a 3rd rounder.

With the Cowboys being stricter in their grading, I think it makes it all the more important that they go OL with their 1st round pick. Otherwise, we might not see them take an OL until much later in the draft and it's unlikely that player will help us next year.

 

[Alexander]

Our inability to draft O linemen is I think an indication of basic weakness for that area in the scouts. It has been shown that we consistently under rate O linemen. The last couple of years very good O linemen went one to two rounds higher then we had them rated at. And that has been going on for a while.

I will agree with that. As a whole, I am not sure we have the best scouting department in the business. It is a far cry from when we had not only Johnson, but more importantly Ackles, Wooten and Mansperger leading the charge.

 

[InmanRoshi]

I honestly think there are several factors in play, chief of which is the organizational stress to the position. We only seem to draft them when we have to. To me it is clear we do not value the position, much like we did with linebackers after Johnson left. When Coach Parcells came aboard, it flipped to now, where we have taken a linebacker high practically every year for nearly the last half decade.

The teams that historically draft linemen well usually have a commitment to addressing the position consistently (and not necessarily with just high risk gambles). It also has to come from the top. Jerry Jones seems to be content over the years to pay them as opposed to developing them. You can even look at how he hangs onto veterans until the bitter end to note that he has very little interest and/or confidence in getting young in the trenches. Right now, he might not have any choice.

Yep. A good example is 2009 draft. The Cowboys sit at the 51st pick, and had Max Unger sitting there at the the last player in a tier of top players. Jerry admits he's the guy they had circled for the 2nd round. He's sitting just a few picks away. Does the regarded "highly aggressive" Jerry Jones move up to get the last highly rated man on his board? No. He sits back and let's Seattle leapfrong ahead of him and grab his guy in front of him. The result is the Cowboys don't have anyone left they deem worthy of the pick, and so at the last second they decide to punt in the 2nd round just for the sake of moving back in the 2nd round (Jerry himself admitted after the draft he had no plans on moving down until Unger was snatched up by Seattle), eventually falling into the 3rd which eventually would be translated into Jason Williams

I have no doubt if it were a position other than offensive lineman, Jerry wouldn't have been so lethargic about getting the last highly rated guy on his board. Afterall, he moved up twice last year to get Sean Lee and Dez.

 

[AbeBeta]

I'm not sure that's true, to begin with. And nobody's snapping any fingers. At least I'm not. The only point that's being made in this thread was that the two OL in question weren't reaches where they were taken.

I don't think it is as much that we don't value OL as it is more that we value the "sexy" positions more and are always looking to add there. The last 5 firsts were used on two WR, a RB, a CB, and an OLB. We like those skill positions more than the line.

BTW -- all this talk about the OL is nice but we have a potential disaster forming on the DL as well. No depth there at all.

 

[Alexander]

With the Cowboys being stricter in their grading, I think it makes it all the more important that they go OL with their 1st round pick. Otherwise, we might not see them take an OL until much later in the draft and it's unlikely that player will help us next year.

I agree.

Sadly, the one player they will probably have rated highest in Smith is somewhat of a developmental player who might need some strength work to be able to step in immediately and play at a high level.

This just is not a great year for offensive linemen as luck would have it.

If I am in charge of the organization, I would recognize that and go at the draft's strength, which is on the other side of the ball. Bad thing is, then you have to count on being right deeper into the draft at a position that historically you are not that good at identifying quality.

 

[Alexander]

Yep. A good example is 2009 draft. The Cowboys sit at the 51st pick, and had Max Unger sitting there at the the last player in a tier of top players. Jerry admits he's the guy they had circled for the 2nd round. He's sitting just a few picks away. Does the regarded "highly aggressive" Jerry Jones move up to get the last highly rated man on his board? No. He sits back and let's Seattle leapfrong ahead of him and grab his guy in front of him. The result is the Cowboys don't have anyone left they deem worthy of the pick, and so at the last second they decide to punt in the 2nd round just for the sake of moving back in the 2nd round (Jerry himself admitted after the draft he had no plans on moving down until Unger was snatched up by Seattle), eventually falling into the 3rd which eventually would be translated into Jason Williams

I have no doubt if it were a position other than offensive lineman, Jerry wouldn't have been so lethargic about getting the last highly rated guy on his board. Afterall, he moved up twice last year to get Sean Lee and Dez.

His lethargy is driven by the fact he really is not a good evaluator of talent, especially at certain positions.

It is hard to be decisive when you count on the loudest voice in the room directing who you need to go after.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I still think the reason Jerry traded back in 2009 was that he was determined ahead of time to recoup that 3rd he blew on Roy Williams.

Just a classic case of throwing good money after bad.

 

[Idgit]

I don't think it is as much that we don't value OL as it is more that we value the "sexy" positions more and are always looking to add there. The last 5 firsts were used on two WR, a RB, a CB, and an OLB. We like those skill positions more than the line.

BTW -- all this talk about the OL is nice but we have a potential disaster forming on the DL as well. No depth there at all.

We've thought for some time that we can develop mid-round picks along the OL. And then we had other needs.

It's too soon to tell where we're at on DL. We've got three DEs flapping in the breeze right now. I'm assuming we'll sign two of them and then draft someone in the 3rd or 4th we think can be a role player. If we get a decent candidate, we'll have a good mix of youth and experience. It's a position to bolster in the next few years, though, for sure.

 

[AbeBeta]

We've thought for some time that we can develop mid-round picks along the OL. And then we had other needs.

It's too soon to tell where we're at on DL. We've got three DEs flapping in the breeze right now. I'm assuming we'll sign two of them and then draft someone in the 3rd or 4th we think can be a role player. If we get a decent candidate, we'll have a good mix of youth and experience. It's a position to bolster in the next few years, though, for sure.

Sure -- and that is all about trying to build a fantasy football team rather than one that is strong up the gut.

 

[ndanger]

To get Peterson and Smith at 6 and 12 is absolutely worth it to me to use our 2nd and 3rd round picks this year and our 1st this year and next year. Hell yes I jump all over that.

A team with two first round picks next year could conceivably be in the mix to land Andrew Luck. I could see someone willing to take our next years first just to have that be a possibility.

 

[InmanRoshi]

I still think the reason Jerry traded back in 2009 was that he was determined ahead of time to recoup that 3rd he blew on Roy Williams.

I seem to remember that Jerry spoke "off record" after he stepped down from the podium on his Day 1 draft press conference and admitted he had no previous plans to move back, and only did so after Unger was no longer on the board.

They pulled off the trade back with only about 2 seconds left on the clock. If they had the mindset that they were going to move back way ahead of time, they probably would have laid some groundwork with some teams ahead of time so that it wasn't such a last second fustercluck.

 

[ndanger]

Few teams have "whiffed" as badly or consistently with offensive linemen as this organization has. You cannot chalk up that kind of prolonged futility by simply snapping your fingers and damning your lack of fortune.

It is clear something is and has been wrong with our evaluation of the position. Either it is our GM or the individuals he has been listening to. Brewster is just the most recent example.

Larry Allen, Eric Williams.