NBA Free Agency

[JoeyBoy718]

various--

Dallas fans ARE making too much out of the Spurs series.
By the same token the Spurs are making too much out of winning the title.
They've never repeated so expecting to do so seems contrary to all evidence.
Especially with at best only the 4th or 5th best roster in basketball. (and that may be generous given Mills is out for a few months minimum)
They had no injuries of note last year.
They had 1500+ minutes out of their top 8 guys.
Duncan led the team with over 2100 minutes.

The Pelicans are going to be fun to watch but winning is probably a couple years away.
That is a really young team.

Aminu is a good fit for Dallas because they have scoring skill galore.
They needed a guy who can play ugly and is just a raw athlete.
He fits but how much Carlisle will pay a guy who isn't consistent is a huge question.
I think that is why they went Lewis first. --He is a stretch 4 and consistent if very limited at this point in his career.
I think with Aminu they can make Wright available at the trade deadline.

The Thunder are really talented but that team needs a coach who can install some confidence by winning late game match ups.
The give the ball to KD plan is not a bad one but it doesn't offer much belief in the coach.

GSW is a total wildcard. New coach and lotsa talent.

Teams are pretty close to set for the start of the year but in season trades are very likely this year as teams shift around trying to find a winning mix.

I agree with everything you're saying. I'm not a Texas person so I'm not Spurs/Mavs/Rockets biased like some other people on here. I agree with you. The Spurs have never won back to back, they're getting older (eventually they have to be done... right?), and they don't have the best roster. I don't see them winning this year. I definitely don't see the Mavs winning. I see them fighting for a playoff spot. And I don't see any Eastern conference team standing a chance in the NBA Finals. It's gonna come down to the Thunder, Clippers or Warriors, in my opinion. The Blazers, Rockets and Grizzlies have a shot but I don't see any of them having enough to win it all. At the moment, my guess is the Thunders win it all because they have the fewest amount of question marks. I think the Clippers and Warriors can win it but we have a few questions, like 1) will this Donald Sterling drama affect the Clippers?, 2) will the Clippers players and coaches go on strike?, 3) how will the Warriors' coach do?, 4) will the Warriors go all in for a guy like Kevin Love?

My predictions for the Western conference playoff seeings:

1. Thunder
2. Clippers
3. Warriors
4. Spurs
5. Grizzlies
6. Rockets
7. Blazers




8. Mavericks

 

[bounce]

various--

Dallas fans ARE making too much out of the Spurs series.
By the same token the Spurs are making too much out of winning the title.
They've never repeated so expecting to do so seems contrary to all evidence.
Especially with at best only the 4th or 5th best roster in basketball. (and that may be generous given Mills is out for a few months minimum)
They had no injuries of note last year.
They had 1500+ minutes out of their top 8 guys.
Duncan led the team with over 2100 minutes.

I'm not going to be in a Spurs debate with you, because I'll just be grouped in with being a Spurs homer - but how is this stat even relevant? Tim Duncan led the Spurs with 2158 minutes played...which was 102nd in the league. He played less minutes than Chris Paul in 12 MORE games.

For comparison, Carmelo Anthony played 15 more games than Duncan in minutes alone.

Tony Parker lead the team in minutes per game at 29.4 and he was 110th in the league in MPG. There wasn't a single player on the Spurs over 30mpg.

You can make an argument for all those other points, but minutes? There's never been a team better at managing minutes. I understand that deep playoff runs will enter into that, but deep playoff runs have always entered into it for them.

 

[Biggems]

NO has a decent roster, but they do not have great depth, so they must avoid injuries to their starters. I will say they have a solid starting lineup, though. Still, they will need 2-3 more pieces before they can consider themselves a legitimate playoff contender.

As for GS, If they are able to keep Thompson and add Love, I would have to give them a top 4 seed. As they are right now, I would have them either being a 7/8 seed or missing the playoffs altogether. I just don't see them having the inside game needed to compete, especially with Bogut not being able to stay healthy.

I will say the Spurs will have a tough task at trying to repeat, but not as tough as in previous repeat attempts. The East is weak right now. All the top teams in the West, while very competitive do have some serious question marks going into the season. Of the 5 opportunities to repeat, this has to be the year they do it, if they are going to do it.

I agree on the OKC front. Brooks is not the answer at HC. He is an enabler. He coddles his two stars and doesn't really hold them accountable. He is also very poor with creating a set offense. In the half court, the Thunder are completely lost. That is all on the coaching staff, especially Brooks. Now, if Adams and Ibaka can improve their low post games, and the kid from Michigan can contribute, then maybe they will be able to do some good things in the half court. Still, Brooks needs to do a better job at game planning.

Well since this is the FA thread......Look for the Spurs to make a huge push to get LeMarcus Aldridge next offseason, and with his ties to the state of Texas, of all the big name free agents, I feel they can have a strong chance to get him.

 

[jterrell]

I agree with everything you're saying. I'm not a Texas person so I'm not Spurs/Mavs/Rockets biased like some other people on here. I agree with you. The Spurs have never won back to back, they're getting older (eventually they have to be done... right?), and they don't have the best roster. I don't see them winning this year. I definitely don't see the Mavs winning. I see them fighting for a playoff spot. And I don't see any Eastern conference team standing a chance in the NBA Finals. It's gonna come down to the Thunder, Clippers or Warriors, in my opinion. The Blazers, Rockets and Grizzlies have a shot but I don't see any of them having enough to win it all. At the moment, my guess is the Thunders win it all because they have the fewest amount of question marks. I think the Clippers and Warriors can win it but we have a few questions, like 1) will this Donald Sterling drama affect the Clippers?, 2) will the Clippers players and coaches go on strike?, 3) how will the Warriors' coach do?, 4) will the Warriors go all in for a guy like Kevin Love?

My predictions for the Western conference playoff seeings:

1. Thunder
2. Clippers
3. Warriors
4. Spurs
5. Grizzlies
6. Rockets
7. Blazers




8. Mavericks

I picked the Thunder last year so you don't have to sell them to me but at some point the coach has to answer for underachieving.

The Mavs are only finishing 8th again if they suffer severe injuries. They have a top 5 West roster in coaching and talent.

 

[bounce]

NO has a decent roster, but they do not have great depth, so they must avoid injuries to their starters. I will say they have a solid starting lineup, though. Still, they will need 2-3 more pieces before they can consider themselves a legitimate playoff contender.

As for GS, If they are able to keep Thompson and add Love, I would have to give them a top 4 seed. As they are right now, I would have them either being a 7/8 seed or missing the playoffs altogether. I just don't see them having the inside game needed to compete, especially with Bogut not being able to stay healthy.

I will say the Spurs will have a tough task at trying to repeat, but not as tough as in previous repeat attempts. The East is weak right now. All the top teams in the West, while very competitive do have some serious question marks going into the season. Of the 5 opportunities to repeat, this has to be the year they do it, if they are going to do it.

I agree on the OKC front. Brooks is not the answer at HC. He is an enabler. He coddles his two stars and doesn't really hold them accountable. He is also very poor with creating a set offense. In the half court, the Thunder are completely lost. That is all on the coaching staff, especially Brooks. Now, if Adams and Ibaka can improve their low post games, and the kid from Michigan can contribute, then maybe they will be able to do some good things in the half court. Still, Brooks needs to do a better job at game planning.

Well since this is the FA thread......Look for the Spurs to make a huge push to get LeMarcus Aldridge next offseason, and with his ties to the state of Texas, of all the big name free agents, I feel they can have a strong chance to get him.

Love would be great in GS, I just can't see them getting him without losing Klay.

NO is about 3 years away, I think.

I can see SA going after Aldridge, but I see them going harder after Marc Gasol, honestly.

 

[jterrell]

I'm not going to be in a Spurs debate with you, because I'll just be grouped in with being a Spurs homer - but how is this stat even relevant? Tim Duncan led the Spurs with 2158 minutes played...which was 102nd in the league. He played less minutes than Chris Paul in 12 MORE games.

For comparison, Carmelo Anthony played 15 more games than Duncan in minutes alone.

Tony Parker lead the team in minutes per game at 29.4 and he was 110th in the league in MPG. There wasn't a single player on the Spurs over 30mpg.

You can make an argument for all those other points, but minutes? There's never been a team better at managing minutes. I understand that deep playoff runs will enter into that, but deep playoff runs have always entered into it for them.

Pretty easy:
Look at other teams.
San Antonio had remarkable health. They already have a rotation member out long term which is something that did NOT happen last year.
Leonard missed a bit of time but nothing long term. Mills is out of all basketball activities for quite a long time.
Parker, Ginobli and others were remarkably healthy by career expectations for them.

Number of guys who played 1500+ minutes:
Thunder: 5 guys!! Westbrook was key injury and then obviously you had Ibaka injured in the playoffs.
Mavs: 6. Harris missed half a season. Wright missed 25 games.

OR we can just go back and look at SA in recent past.
2013: Only 6 guys had 1500+ mins. Ginobli was out injured and fell under.
Parker, Duncan, Leonard, Ginobli all fell under 70 games played.

If you don't think SAS was remarkably healthy last year by their own standards you are in fact homering out.
Yes, Pop did a great job managing minutes overall but guys like Parker and Ginobli are flat brittle and getting them through a season healthy is far from guaranteed.

The Spurs last year were much like Dallas in 2011. They were really, really good and supremely coached but also had a lot of pieces fall into place.

 

[bounce]

I picked the Thunder last year so you don't have to sell them to me but at some point the coach has to answer for underachieving.

The Mavs are only finishing 8th again if they suffer severe injuries. They have a top 5 West roster in coaching and talent.

It's a tough spot for OKC management. On the one hand, Brooks has them RIGHT THERE every single year, so who is the coach that can push them over that razor thin edge? I agree that he makes some bad decisions and looks over his head sometimes - he's mostly bailed out by the talent. It's just going to be a tough call to fire him.

 

[jterrell]

Love would be great in GS, I just can't see them getting him without losing Klay.

NO is about 3 years away, I think.

I can see SA going after Aldridge, but I see them going harder after Marc Gasol, honestly.

Aldridge is either staying in Portland or going to Dallas. There is no third option.

The only way SA is a max deal free agent player is if Duncan, Parker and Ginobli retire which seems very unlikely.
And if that happens Gasol has zero incentive to go there.

The Spurs are more likely to be looking at vets who want a title shot at a discounted price.

 

[bounce]

Pretty easy:
Look at other teams.
San Antonio had remarkable health. They already have a rotation member out long term which is something that did NOT happen last year.
Leonard missed a bit of time but nothing long term. Mills is out of all basketball activities for quite a long time.
Parker, Ginobli and others were remarkably healthy by career expectations for them.

Number of guys who played 1500+ minutes:
Thunder: 5 guys!! Westbrook was key injury and then obviously you had Ibaka injured in the playoffs.
Mavs: 6. Harris missed half a season. Wright missed 25 games.

OR we can just go back and look at SA in recent past.
2013: Only 6 guys had 1500+ mins. Ginobli was out injured and fell under.
Parker, Duncan, Leonard, Ginobli all fell under 70 games played.

If you don't think SAS was remarkably healthy last year by their own standards you are in fact homering out.
Yes, Pop did a great job managing minutes overall but guys like Parker and Ginobli are flat brittle and getting them through a season healthy is far from guaranteed.

The Spurs last year were much like Dallas in 2011. They were really, really good and supremely coached but also had a lot of pieces fall into place.

I don't disagree with the health thing for the Spurs at all. They were remarkably lucky last year when injuries have normally bit them hard. Manu never goes into the post season healthy, and last year he avoided anything major. Tony was teetering with hammie problems, and Mills was a savior who could give him rest. Kawhi missed a lot of time, but it was at the perfect part of the season. Injuries are going to happen, that's a freak thing. I'm just saying that they do a good job by managing minutes when a guy IS hurting or tired. Tony was sat down "indefinitely" so he could rest his body. He wasn't injured, he was just beat up. They have the luxury of the bench to do that. Guys don't get worn down throughout the season based sheerly on minutes.

To your point, Mills and Manu are huge question marks going into the season - because they created that cushion of playing time. You won't get me arguing dodging the health issue. I've seen them bit by injuries plenty of times. I don't take it for granted.

 

[jterrell]

It's a tough spot for OKC management. On the one hand, Brooks has them RIGHT THERE every single year, so who is the coach that can push them over that razor thin edge? I agree that he makes some bad decisions and looks over his head sometimes - he's mostly bailed out by the talent. It's just going to be a tough call to fire him.

I don't think it's tough at all.
The fan base is one of the league's best and most dedicated but it is slowly waning.
They are burned out on failed chances.

I think they'd get every coaches attention with an opening because KD is one of the best superstars to work with.
He is professional and humble.

 

[bounce]

Aldridge is either staying in Portland or going to Dallas. There is no third option.

The only way SA is a max deal free agent player is if Duncan, Parker and Ginobli retire which seems very unlikely.
And if that happens Gasol has zero incentive to go there.

The Spurs are more likely to be looking at vets who want a title shot at a discounted price.

Oh yeah, I just said the Spurs will go after them - I didn't say they'd be able to sign them. Big name free agents don't sign in San Antonio in their prime. I'm used to that. I think they'll have space after next year, because I think Duncan/Manu will retire (of course, they'll have to extend Kawhi), but money has never brought players to SA. They have to build through trades and the draft.

 

[jterrell]

I don't disagree with the health thing for the Spurs at all. They were remarkably lucky last year when injuries have normally bit them hard. Manu never goes into the post season healthy, and last year he avoided anything major. Tony was teetering with hammie problems, and Mills was a savior who could give him rest. Kawhi missed a lot of time, but it was at the perfect part of the season. Injuries are going to happen, that's a freak thing. I'm just saying that they do a good job by managing minutes when a guy IS hurting or tired. Tony was sat down "indefinitely" so he could rest his body. He wasn't injured, he was just beat up. They have the luxury of the bench to do that. Guys don't get worn down throughout the season based sheerly on minutes.

To your point, Mills and Manu are huge question marks going into the season - because they created that cushion of playing time. You won't get me arguing dodging the health issue. I've seen them bit by injuries plenty of times. I don't take it for granted.

The reality is with the talent in the West a lot will be decided by health.

I think a lot more teams will try to copy Pop and limit regular season minutes.
I definitely think Dallas does that with Dirk and Tyson.

But I am in the same boat with you looking ta Dallas and saying can all these old dudes stay healthy? Unlikely.
Which is why I can't sell them as a title favorite even with a really good mix of players and coaching.

 

[bounce]

I don't think it's tough at all.
The fan base is one of the league's best and most dedicated but it is slowly waning.
They are burned out on failed chances.

I think they'd get every coaches attention with an opening because KD is one of the best superstars to work with.
He is professional and humble.

Which coach do you see as being the best option, and a follow-up, which coach leaves their current position to take on that job? I see Doc, Pop, Thibs as the best ones in the league right now. And I don't see any of them leaving for an OKC job.

 

[jterrell]

Oh yeah, I just said the Spurs will go after them - I didn't say they'd be able to sign them. Big name free agents don't sign in San Antonio in their prime. I'm used to that. I think they'll have space after next year, because I think Duncan/Manu will retire (of course, they'll have to extend Kawhi), but money has never brought players to SA. They have to build through trades and the draft.

Pop and Duncan are leaving together. Ginobli/Parker probably goes with them. Ginobli can be a spot up shooter until he's 50. Like Duncan and Dirk he relies very little on athleticism.
Once they leave things will change dramatically.

San Antonio or Cleveland or anywhere can lure free agents with money. SA has been smart not to overpay to make that happen.
They have been very close in the past to landing guys like Jason Kidd in his prime.

The big money free agent is mostly myth like the lochness monster.

We've seen only 5 or 6 of these guys change teams and each has their own set of reasons.
Shaq wanted to get into entertainment with movies and rapping.
D12 wanted to be the leader and focal point of a young, talented team.
LeBron wanted to win then wanted to go home.

Most want the biggest money tho so stay wherever they are. Others stay where they are because they have families entrenched in the community and have built relationships with the city.

Cuban was open and honest about being glad we didn't land Deron Williams.
It looked a little petty at the time but it has proven to be wholly accurate.

Hauling in the big superstar has become a HARDER way to win than an easy one.
You spend all that money and it hog ties you.
It worked fror Miami because they got 3 guys to take a bit less than max money.
But it was also a finite window.

 

[jterrell]

Which coach do you see as being the best option, and a follow-up, which coach leaves their current position to take on that job? I see Doc, Pop, Thibs as the best ones in the league right now. And I don't see any of them leaving for an OKC job.

I agree with those 3.
After Pop at the top I'd put Carlisle with Doc and Thibs on that 2nd level.

I'd fire Brooks and hire Mark Jackson.
He has the best chance to get through to Westbrook what a PG should be.

Failing that I'd be angling for a Dwain Casey or another experienced protege of the top 4 coaches.

Brooks coaching tree is really just Carlisimo(sp?)... and really he fell into the team when it was growing up, moved to an estatic fan base and starting winning.
All his coaching bones were earned riding a maturing KD to more wins imho.

 

[bounce]

Pop and Duncan are leaving together. Ginobli/Parker probably goes with them. Ginobli can be a spot up shooter until he's 50. Like Duncan and Dirk he relies very little on athleticism.
Once they leave things will change dramatically.

San Antonio or Cleveland or anywhere can lure free agents with money. SA has been smart not to overpay to make that happen.
They have been very close in the past to landing guys like Jason Kidd in his prime.

Pop just signed a five year extension a couple of weeks ago. No way Duncan plays five more. He said he considered retiring after this past one, but wanted to give it another shot. Manu is up after this year, also. I think his body is just flat going to break down on him. He could have a spot-up role, but his game is more predicated on reckless abandon. His mind moves faster than his body, now. I think they both walk after this next season. Parker will be here for years and I don't see Pop leaving on Kawhi.

They were close to getting Kidd, but that was an anomaly (and a blessing). He's about the only max guy they've gone after, but I'm talking more about the mid-range guys. Guys like Pau this year, Kirilenko last year, . They're always in the mix, but guys choose other cities. I know that max guys rarely leave - they'll shop and then re-up where they're comfortable, like Melo.

 

[jterrell]

Pop just signed a five year extension a couple of weeks ago. No way Duncan plays five more. He said he considered retiring after this past one, but wanted to give it another shot. Manu is up after this year, also. I think his body is just flat going to break down on him. He could have a spot-up role, but his game is more predicated on reckless abandon. His mind moves faster than his body, now. I think they both walk after this next season. Parker will be here for years and I don't see Pop leaving on Kawhi.

They were close to getting Kidd, but that was an anomaly (and a blessing). He's about the only max guy they've gone after, but I'm talking more about the mid-range guys. Guys like Pau this year, Kirilenko last year, . They're always in the mix, but guys choose other cities. I know that max guys rarely leave - they'll shop and then re-up where they're comfortable, like Melo.

Pop isn't coaching 5 more; he;s been quite honest about that in the past and he and Duncan have both admitted they walk off together.

That 5 year deal was a media **** move. He can walk away at anytime and yet never has to renegotiate another deal.

 

[Rockport]

Pop isn't coaching 5 more; he;s been quite honest about that in the past and he and Duncan have both admitted they walk off together.

That 5 year deal was a media **** move. He can walk away at anytime and yet never has to renegotiate another deal.

You really don't know what you're talking about. Pop is coaching beyond Duncan. People like you who spread misinformation are the scourge of the internet.

 

[bounce]

Pop isn't coaching 5 more; he;s been quite honest about that in the past and he and Duncan have both admitted they walk off together.

That 5 year deal was a media **** move. He can walk away at anytime and yet never has to renegotiate another deal.

That "walking away together" was a throwaway comment that got way out of hand. The quote was

"When he doesn't think he can, he'll stop. It might be in the middle of a game. I can see him walking of the court saying 'Nah, I'm not pulling my weight anymore, I'm gone.' And he'll walk. And I'll be right behind him, like this. No pride, no nothing."

Pop has come out MANY times and said that he wasn't serious when he said that he and TD were walking away together. That whole thing was based off of that one soundbite. It was a complete joke in the interview, and it's blown up since then. He was interviewed mid last year and he said (paraphrased) "I'll walk away when I lose the passion for coaching. I still love competing and I still love coaching basketball. When I lose that, I'll walk away - but I'm not sure what I'd do in retirement. There's only so many vacations you can take and so much wine you can drink."

Here's a tweet from Woj about Pop's extension.

 

[jterrell]

That "walking away together" was a throwaway comment that got way out of hand. The quote was



Pop has come out MANY times and said that he wasn't serious when he said that he and TD were walking away together. That whole thing was based off of that one soundbite. It was a complete joke in the interview, and it's blown up since then. He was interviewed mid last year and he said (paraphrased) "I'll walk away when I lose the passion for coaching. I still love competing and I still love coaching basketball. When I lose that, I'll walk away - but I'm not sure what I'd do in retirement. There's only so many vacations you can take and so much wine you can drink."

Here's a tweet from Woj about Pop's extension.

That was merely one sound bite. Pop and Duncan and have both indicated they'd retire together previous to that sound bite.

And Woj is using 2nd hand info (almost certainly from Buford) so is far less reliable than Pop's own mouth.

Pop is 65. He isn't coaching 5 more years man. It is what it is and common sense should provide that data for you.
He'll try to keep that gang together another 2 or 3 years then either move upstairs or out.
He'll drink a lot of wine and enjoy retirement.

Duncan opted in BEFORE Pop made his extension.