NBA Off-season Moves (starting with my Mavs)

[jterrell]

All I'm saying, is mathematically speaking, let's give the Spurs a 50% chance of getting out of the west and then a 60% chance of winning the finals versus Cleveland, that still only gives them a 30% chance of winning it all. Now let's give CLE a 90% chance of getting out of the east, and then a 40% chance versus the Spurs, that gives them a 36% chance to win it all.

this is the kind of logic that leads people to think buying a certain lottery number every week gives them a better chance to win.

whatever happens in the West, SAS is a far higher than 50% chance to advance.
and right now would be more than a 60% chance to beat CLE.

but again, CLE has a few more bullets left to improve before then.
no one wins a title in July even if that's when you cement the chase.

 

[jterrell]

this is the kind of logic that leads people to think buying a certain lottery number every week gives them a better chance to win.

whatever happens in the West, SAS is a far higher than 50% chance to advance.
and right now would be more than a 60% chance to beat CLE.

but again, CLE has a few more bullets left to improve before then.
no one wins a title in July even if that's when you cement the chase.

and FWIW I was picking the Cavs on this board this time last year. noting they'd make a lot of moves in-season to get better.
i also noted the spurs would have a really hard row to hoe and shouldn't be favorites last year.

again my credibility is pretty strong given the data in the threads.

 

[coogrfan]

David West will be the first Big off the Bench for SA, he can guard the post, and hit the 15' jumper. I see him more than just a footnote.

True, plus Pop tends to use his bench guys a lot more than most other NBA coaches. The notion that West is going to SA so that someone else can win him a ring is preposterous.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

True, plus Pop tends to use his bench guys a lot more than most other NBA coaches. The notion that West is going to SA so that someone else can win him a ring is preposterous.

Only to butthurt Spurs fans defending West like he's been there for 10 years.

But yeah, to anyone with half a brain West is going to the Spurs to have someone win a ring for him. Just like all of the 10th through12th best players on the roster on any other team. Except most towel wavers don't take a 10 million dollar pay cut to back up Boris Diaw in the playoffs after saying they don't chase rings 9 months earlier.

 

[bounce]

Only to butthurt Spurs fans defending West like he's been there for 10 years.

But yeah, to anyone with half a brain West is going to the Spurs to have someone win a ring for him. Just like all of the 10th through12th best players on the roster on any other team. Except most towel wavers don't take a 10 million dollar pay cut to back up Boris Diaw in the playoffs after saying they don't chase rings 9 months earlier.

West will play at least 25 minutes a game in SA. That's not exactly a Jeff Ayres/Matt Bonner type end-of-bench role.

 

[coogrfan]

Only to butthurt Spurs fans defending West like he's been there for 10 years.

But yeah, to anyone with half a brain West is going to the Spurs to have someone win a ring for him. Just like all of the 10th through12th best players on the roster on any other team. Except most towel wavers don't take a 10 million dollar pay cut to back up Boris Diaw in the playoffs after saying they don't chase rings 9 months earlier.

One, I'm not a Spurs fan (Go Rox!). Two, the idea that West is going to SA to be a modern day Jack Haley is just plain dumb.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

West will play at least 25 minutes a game in SA. That's not exactly a Jeff Ayres/Matt Bonner type end-of-bench role.

I don't think he will at all, but he will play some in the regular season. But he will not play at all or minimally in the playoffs when the starters minutes go up. Aldridge and Leonard are young enough to play 40 minutes and Diaw and Duncan will see their minutes increase by about 10 if Pop sticks to form. That's when West's wrist waving and hand slapping skills will serve him most. I also do not think it's crazy that (maybe?) Ayres and Anderson will be factors as guys like Baynes, Joseph and Splitter didn't come from nowhere; Pop is alway working someone into his genius machine.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

One, I'm not a Spurs fan (Go Rox!). Two, the idea that West is going to SA to be a modern day Jack Haley is just plain dumb.

Death to the Rockets! Very well, then list the Spurs roster from 1-12 in the way that you think they will fall in importance to the roster. If you have West higher than 9th you're doing it wrong. He's an end of the bench guy... and he now surpassed the great Ray Allen as the ultimate ring chaser in NBA history.

 

[bounce]

I don't think he will at all, but he will play some in the regular season. But he will not play at all or minimally in the playoffs when the starters minutes go up. Aldridge and Leonard are young enough to play 40 minutes and Diaw and Duncan will see their minutes increase by about 10 if Pop sticks to form. That's when West's wrist waving and hand slapping skills will serve him most. I also do not think it's crazy that (maybe?) Ayres and Anderson will be factors as guys like Baynes, Joseph and Splitter didn't come from nowhere; Pop is alway working someone into his genius machine.

Two years ago, there wasn't a single player on the Spurs who averaged more than 30 minutes a game. Timmy, Kawhi and Tony were all tied at 29mpg. Danny Green (at age 26) averaged 24 mpg, Marco Belinelli (27) averaged 25. Patty Mills (25) averaged 18.

Last year, the only person who played over 30 mpg was Kawhi at 31. Timmy was at 28 (reduced), Tony was at 28 (reduced). Danny was at 28 (increased), but most guys decreased or stayed where they were.

What are you talking about "if Pop sticks to form?" Actually, his "form" is trending the absolute opposite direction and keeping the minutes low. So, I'm not sure why you think that Kawhi and Aldridge are all of a sudden going to play 40 minutes, and Timmy and Diaw are going to "increase by about 10 if Pop sticks to form." There's no way they're at 38 minutes a game (an increase of 10). They'll be lucky to see 30.

 

[bounce]

Death to the Rockets! Very well, then list the Spurs roster from 1-12 in the way that you think they will fall in importance to the roster. If you have West higher than 9th you're doing it wrong. He's an end of the bench guy... and he now surpassed the great Ray Allen as the ultimate ring chaser in NBA history.

1 - Kawhi
2 - Aldridge
3 - Timmy
4 - Tony
5 - Green
6 - Diaw
7 - Mills
8 - West
9 - Manu
10 - 12....

And 6-9 are all interchangeable.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Two years ago, there wasn't a single player on the Spurs who averaged more than 30 minutes a game. Timmy, Kawhi and Tony were all tied at 29mpg. Danny Green (at age 26) averaged 24 mpg, Marco Belinelli (27) averaged 25. Patty Mills (25) averaged 18.

Last year, the only person who played over 30 mpg was Kawhi at 31. Timmy was at 28 (reduced), Tony was at 28 (reduced). Danny was at 28 (increased), but most guys decreased or stayed where they were.

What are you talking about "if Pop sticks to form?" Actually, his "form" is trending the absolute opposite direction and keeping the minutes low. So, I'm not sure why you think that Kawhi and Aldridge are all of a sudden going to play 40 minutes, and Timmy and Diaw are going to "increase by about 10 if Pop sticks to form." There's no way they're at 38 minutes a game (an increase of 10). They'll be lucky to see 30.

Maybe I wasn't as clear as I could have been but I was talking about playoffs.

 

[bounce]

Maybe I wasn't as clear as I could have been but I was talking about playoffs.

My bad, misunderstood.

But even so, only Kawhi and Timmy jumped. Kawhi by five and Timmy by about six. Everyone else stayed around their average. I agree he'll shorten the bench, but the only point I'm making is that I imagine West will be in the nine man rotation in the playoffs. It's really all just speculation for us, though.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

David Lee for Gerald Wallace swap...

Jason Smith signs with Orl...

Wes Johnson signs with Clips

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

1 - Kawhi
2 - Aldridge
3 - Timmy
4 - Tony
5 - Green
6 - Diaw
7 - Mills
8 - West
9 - Manu
10 - 12....

And 6-9 are all interchangeable.

I think West plays ahead of Diaw. He's a better athlete better defender, although Diaw is a better passer.
San Antonio needs another guard, and more size.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

 

[Manwiththeplan]

and FWIW I was picking the Cavs on this board this time last year. noting they'd make a lot of moves in-season to get better.
i also noted the spurs would have a really hard row to hoe and shouldn't be favorites last year.

again my credibility is pretty strong given the data in the threads.

...did you just...quote yourself?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

this is the kind of logic that leads people to think buying a certain lottery number every week gives them a better chance to win.

whatever happens in the West, SAS is a far higher than 50% chance to advance.
and right now would be more than a 60% chance to beat CLE.

but again, CLE has a few more bullets left to improve before then.
no one wins a title in July even if that's when you cement the chase.

No it's not. Not even remotely. He is compounding probabilities which is nothing like the gambler's fallacy.

 

[locked&loaded]

...did you just...quote yourself?

hes always right...except when hes wrong

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

hes always right...except when hes wrong

L
M
A
O

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]