The "eye test" is almost always somebody's way of saying, "This stat doesn't match what I saw, but I'm too lazy to figure out why."
Mariota's 3rd down numbers in that game were a lot like Weeden's when he was in Dallas -- skewed by a lot of completions short of the sticks on 3rd down. In small samples, you can be fooled by the passer rating if you don't look at conversion rate. Over a larger sample, a QB who doesn't convert many 3rd downs must be converting a lot on 1st and 2nd down (Romo in 2013, for example) if he has a high passer rating.
Dak's passer rating vs. the Commanders didn't show his two lost fumbles, or any of his sacks. Passer rating measures passing efficiency, so it ignores anything that wasn't a pass attempt. Even so, passer rating is still the individual stat with the highest correlation wins.
2018
passer rating (W-L)
100+ (106-41-1)
80-99.9 (44-47-1)
<80 (24-88-2)