Of Crystal Balls and Tea Leaves Part III

[Irvin88_4life]

Denver offered $16 million. Houston offered $18 million.

For a QB, neither is that much. Houston will regret it because he's not that good. He's check-down Charlie just like Weeden was.

I knew it was close but couldn't remember. ....that being said Brock chose where to go. Franchise Miller kept them from doing it to Brock

 

[conner01]

22 was immortalized by Bob Hayes before Emmitt Smith

54 was immortalized by Chuck Howley before Randy White

88 was immortalized by Drew Pearson before Michael Irvin and Dez Bryant

Here's some triplets fun:

Troy (8) + Emmitt (22) + Irvin (88) = 118

Romo (9) + Zeke (21) + Dez (88) = 118

I like that math

 

[jday]

Zeke will pay off in the short term, there is no disputing that. Just like Henry would have paid off or Miller would have paid off if we took or signed them. But no doubt when Rogers or Cam is driving down the field to end our season while Zeke is sitting on the bench you will be wishing we might have gone in another direction. And certainly in 4 years when Romo is 100% toast and Zeke is on the downside of his career you will definitely be wishing we went defense.


The ONLY reason we can say Zeke will have the impact that he will is because we have the best line in football. Zeke will amazing, and like you, I was jumping for joy. But none the less, it was bad value pick and wreaks of desperation. This pick did nothing for our biggest weaknesses. The reality is that we probably made our biggest strength a bit stronger. A pick only Jerry Jones and his band of jokers, or short term thinking pom pom wavers would champion as the best thing we could have done.

I certainly understand where you are coming from, but I still disagree. First, Henry is not the complete back that Zeke is nor was any other back available in this draft. Second, regardless of what the stats suggest, a good running game does help your defense. On this topic, stats are very misleading. But you seem firmly ensconced in your stance on this so we will just have to wait and see what happens.

 

[jday]

Demarco Murray proved that with a healthy Romo, a poor defense and this line that a good back could take us to 12-4 and rush for 1800 yards and 15 TD's. So he needs to at the very least match those numbers as well as the teams.

But lets imagine for a second that we go 13-3 and he runs for 1950 yards and 18 TD's. So HOW did he really make us that much better? By 10 yards a game, 3 TD's and one more win? WOW!!!! what an impact. LOL

Thats what these low standard, win now, pom pom wavers dont understand. His overall affect will be minimal in the overall scheme. Now if we make it to the SB, I will eat plenty of crow.

Every season and every draft is an entity unto itself. The Cowboys will play a completely different schedule then they did in 2014 and 2015 and will play many different teams. Hell, even the NFCE is largely different from what they were 2 years ago. The weather will be different. The circumstances surrounding each game will be different.

So how can you possibly say if Zeke is better overall than Murray he will put up more yards than he did? Look up "scientific method." In order for two performances to be fairly examined, the conditions must be exactly the same or the results are flawed and not usable.

Personally, I don't care if by season end, Zeke-detractors bang their drum about who is better and who was the better value. If the addition of Zeke helps the Cowboys to the playoffs, for me all that will be white noise.

 

[USMarineVet]

Starting late March, as I read any and all things draft related, I came to the conclusion that the Cowboys should/would draft Zeke…had to draft him. In the scheme of things, it just made the most amount of sense that the Cowboys would recognize the approaching expiration date of Romo and make one final push to get it done, by giving him the ultimate weapon – an all-around excellent Running Back who is a threat to take it to the house on any given play at any given point on the field, by any means of ball distribution – toss, pass, handoff, screen, etc. That teamed with Romo, Dez, Witten, Beasley, etc would give opposing defensive coordinators too much to stop in one game.

Whereas, had the Cowboys drafted to please the so-called experts, they would have drafted a QB and defense and possibly a WR late. The latter draft, however, would have been a draft that essentially would tell Romo, “you had a nice run kid, but we are moving on.”

Why?

Because drafting defense regardless of where you take them typically do not contribute in any significant way in their first year. Sure, there are exceptions to that rule, but those exceptions are rare…and I’m not even sure that immediate impact player was available in this draft. At least, not a guy who will fix what was broken on the Cowboys defense.

So, I made the prediction that should they draft Zeke, they will go to the playoffs. I further stated that they would give Zeke the #22 and that in an effort to be trite, Jerry would say something to the extent of, “When you put 88 with 22, you are going to get 110 percent.” Just sounds like something Jerry would say.

So let’s review: The Cowboys did draft Zeke and I shango’d all over myself. I ran around the house yelling “yes, yes, yes.” Leading up to the draft, I consistently heard the commish in my head saying, “With the fourth overall pick of the draft, the Dallas Cowboys select…(pause for effect)…Ezekiel Elliot Running Back Ohio State.” I heard it bouncing around my head over and over and knew that that was what I was going to hear when it actually happened. And then it happened. For the first time in my draft watching life, the Cowboys picked my pet cat.

Now, granted, I understand it’s not like I just guessed the winning lottery numbers. The odds in my favor of being right were somewhat decent, despite the supposed rule against drafting running backs in the first and the fact that they had already addressed the position in Free Agency with Alfred Morris. Furthermore, the Cowboys have yet to give the man #22, though, I am holding out hope that they will do so at some point prior to the season…no offense to the purist out there that are against ever seeing that number worn again. So, on that prediction, we are still in wait and see mode.

For the fun of it, though, I have yet another prediction to make:

As I was driving home in tumultuous weather last night and mulling over all the various arguments against Zeke that have sprouted up, a future Nike/other sports brand commercial popped in my head. One that is by no means in existence to my knowledge, but something I expect to see at some point in the playoffs following the upcoming season:

We hear Zeke narrating over a series of highlights from the past season. He starts with: They said I’m not AP. They said I’m not Todd Gurley. They said I’m not Emmitt Smith. They said I’m not worthy of the fourth overall pick. Everything they said…(pause for effect)…was right. I’m Zeke and I should have gone first overall.”

Blast away!

I'm drinking your Kool-Aid.. And it tastes gooood.

 

[LocimusPrime]

Is Zeke a bad pick if Henry or Dixon end up having the same or more yds and tds than him?
will he be a bad pick if Morris or McFadden end up with a higher ypc with a min of 75-100 carries?

 

[jday]

Is Zeke a bad pick if Henry or Dixon end up having the same or more yds and tds than him?
will he be a bad pick if Morris or McFadden end up with a higher ypc with a min of 75-100 carries?

Context isn't everything, but it such a big part of it. You can't simply look at stats to define what a player is; especially if you are using the stats of another player who earned those stats under entirely different conditions against entirely different competition. Therein is the issue. Just to make a point, I'm going to give you an outlandish example: Let's say you have been given the ability to pit one running back against the 85 bears and another running back against the 85 bucs. The back running against the bears is able to muscle out 85 yards and the running back against the bucs pulls out 150 yards. Do you immediately assume the running back who pulled out 150 yards is better, even though we know the 85 bears is often times referred to as the standard for dominating defense?

That is why you can't simply say Zeke can only be considered better if he puts up better stats than Murray. By that same token, you can't assume he is better than Murray if he does reset the single season record for the Cowboys franchise. This is that little place where stats can be very misleading...especially when it pertains to how one player compares to another...especially when said player is on a different team in a different scheme.

 

[Supercowboy1986]

Is Zeke a bad pick if Henry or Dixon end up having the same or more yds and tds than him?
will he be a bad pick if Morris or McFadden end up with a higher ypc with a min of 75-100 carries?

I think you could make an argument for it where people on both sides would consider the others position. But somehow it will turn into a, poor coaching, poor front office, etc fiasco

It's a never ending cycle

 

[Alohawg1]

22 was immortalized by Bob Hayes before Emmitt Smith

54 was immortalized by Chuck Howley before Randy White

88 was immortalized by Drew Pearson before Michael Irvin and Dez Bryant

Here's some triplets fun:

Troy (8) + Emmitt (22) + Irvin (88) = 118

Romo (9) + Zeke (21) + Dez (88) = 118

Didn't the underwear thief wear 21 also?

 

[dallasdave]

Starting late March, as I read any and all things draft related, I came to the conclusion that the Cowboys should/would draft Zeke…had to draft him. In the scheme of things, it just made the most amount of sense that the Cowboys would recognize the approaching expiration date of Romo and make one final push to get it done, by giving him the ultimate weapon – an all-around excellent Running Back who is a threat to take it to the house on any given play at any given point on the field, by any means of ball distribution – toss, pass, handoff, screen, etc. That teamed with Romo, Dez, Witten, Beasley, etc would give opposing defensive coordinators too much to stop in one game.

Whereas, had the Cowboys drafted to please the so-called experts, they would have drafted a QB and defense and possibly a WR late. The latter draft, however, would have been a draft that essentially would tell Romo, “you had a nice run kid, but we are moving on.”

Why?

Because drafting defense regardless of where you take them typically do not contribute in any significant way in their first year. Sure, there are exceptions to that rule, but those exceptions are rare…and I’m not even sure that immediate impact player was available in this draft. At least, not a guy who will fix what was broken on the Cowboys defense.

So, I made the prediction that should they draft Zeke, they will go to the playoffs. I further stated that they would give Zeke the #22 and that in an effort to be trite, Jerry would say something to the extent of, “When you put 88 with 22, you are going to get 110 percent.” Just sounds like something Jerry would say.

So let’s review: The Cowboys did draft Zeke and I shango’d all over myself. I ran around the house yelling “yes, yes, yes.” Leading up to the draft, I consistently heard the commish in my head saying, “With the fourth overall pick of the draft, the Dallas Cowboys select…(pause for effect)…Ezekiel Elliot Running Back Ohio State.” I heard it bouncing around my head over and over and knew that that was what I was going to hear when it actually happened. And then it happened. For the first time in my draft watching life, the Cowboys picked my pet cat.

Now, granted, I understand it’s not like I just guessed the winning lottery numbers. The odds in my favor of being right were somewhat decent, despite the supposed rule against drafting running backs in the first and the fact that they had already addressed the position in Free Agency with Alfred Morris. Furthermore, the Cowboys have yet to give the man #22, though, I am holding out hope that they will do so at some point prior to the season…no offense to the purist out there that are against ever seeing that number worn again. So, on that prediction, we are still in wait and see mode.

For the fun of it, though, I have yet another prediction to make:

As I was driving home in tumultuous weather last night and mulling over all the various arguments against Zeke that have sprouted up, a future Nike/other sports brand commercial popped in my head. One that is by no means in existence to my knowledge, but something I expect to see at some point in the playoffs following the upcoming season:

We hear Zeke narrating over a series of highlights from the past season. He starts with: They said I’m not AP. They said I’m not Todd Gurley. They said I’m not Emmitt Smith. They said I’m not worthy of the fourth overall pick. Everything they said…(pause for effect)…was right. I’m Zeke and I should have gone first overall.”

Blast away!

Good write up !!! And I for one like the Elliott draft pick !!!

 

[CCBoy]

Putting in place, a running back with shango talents, looks a lot better, than some members pushing the outer limits around seven to eight seasons at running back. Dez Bryant and Zeke Elliott put together two of the trio for a long lasting picture for the Cowboys. That is real...a future QB third element is in question. But for the present, Tony Romo does quite well as the QB side of the big Three for Dallas. Shangoed or not....and for the record, I like Shango.

 

[DogFace]

If that's what you got, that's on you. I'm requiring "statistical proof" after the season, as a means to measure whether or jot this player and the price paid were worth it.

Apparently, that offends some people who would rather lower the bar so that the player and team can't lose.

Who is it you'd have rather drafted than Zeke? That way we can compare statistically later.

 

[Stash]

Who is it you'd have rather drafted than Zeke? That way we can compare statistically later.

I mentioned in the other thread that was started, that if all they'd be getting was Baltimore's 4th rounder (if that report is accurate), I'm glad they took the guy they wanted. If they could have gotten a quality deal to trade down, I'd be good with that too. Running back simply wasn't a huge need for this team, even if the player was great.

If they wanted Lynch as much as Jerry said, trading down a few times and taking him and adding a bunch of additional picks (and getting a running back later) looks like a great plan.

I'm not rooting for this move to fail, I'm expecting it to succeed. But if it doesn't, I won't be making excuses for that or trying to lower the bar. And I don't want to see other people trying to either.

 

[boysfanindc]

Think a successful stat-line would be 1200 yards; 8 Tds, 4.5 YPC, and 60 First Downs.

Could Morris have exceeded those numbers this year behind this line?

 

[Stash]

Every season and every draft is an entity unto itself. The Cowboys will play a completely different schedule then they did in 2014 and 2015 and will play many different teams. Hell, even the NFCE is largely different from what they were 2 years ago. The weather will be different. The circumstances surrounding each game will be different.

So how can you possibly say if Zeke is better overall than Murray he will put up more yards than he did? Look up "scientific method." In order for two performances to be fairly examined, the conditions must be exactly the same or the results are flawed and not usable.

Save it for the lab. The last time I checked, this was football, not college. Any talk of "conditions being the same" is a built-in excuse and a load of nonsense. In the real world, not one second of life is the same as any other. There's no place for "scientific method" on this forum.

Personally, I don't care if by season end, Zeke-detractors bang their drum about who is better and who was the better value. If the addition of Zeke helps the Cowboys to the playoffs, for me all that will be white noise.

And if it doesn't? Whatever expectations I have of him, single-handedly taking this team to the playoffs isn't one of them. Now it looks like your expectations are even higher than mine.

 

[Stash]

Could Morris have exceeded those numbers this year behind this line?

McFadden almost did, after a 6-game late start.

But I credit him for at least stating his expectations.

 

[boysfanindc]

McFadden almost did, after a 6-game late start.

But I credit him for at least stating his expectations.

McFadden almost did last year.

Morris has done it twice in his 4 years in the NFL.

But we have to draft a guy @ 4 to do it?

I did not like the pick, but he is a Cowboy now so I hope he exceeds all expectations.

 

[Stash]

Morris has done it twice in his 4 years in the NFL.

Behind a far inferior offensive line as well. But it's an unprovable hypothetical at this point, something we'll never get an answer for.

 

[bayeslife]

By mid-October, exactly 100 percent of our fan base will claim they wanted Zeke with the No. 4 pick.

Cowboy fans are conveniently malleable like that, and the internet is a cesspool of sudden expertism.

Personally I'm going to be watching Ramsey in Jax with my "Told You So" thread ready and waiting.

 

[Jason 82 Witten]

Personally I'm going to be watching Ramsey in Jax with my "Told You So" thread ready and waiting.

Personally I'm going to be watching Zeke in Dallas with my "Told You So" thread ready and waiting.