Here's a huge flaw in your analogy of Wilson's contract. Two years prior to signing that contract in 2015 he led the sea hawks to a lombardi trophy and then the year before he took them there again and lost due to a huge error in that play on the 2 yard of throwing the ball instead of running it in. So after taking his team to back to back Super Bowls they extended his contract and they did so without making him the highest paid QB in the league.
Ryan got his new contract after taking the falcons to the Super Bowl.
Now I don't think it will happen but what happens if for whatever reason Mahomes has an off year in 2019. Here's another thing to think about. His 4 year deal ends after the 2020 season but the chiefs can also exercise a 5th year option for 2021 if he doesn't play lights out for the next 2 seasons. He would not be the 1st QB to all of a sudden regress after a really good season.
Lastly, your guesses on what a contract would be today is just that a guess. There is absolutely no way of knowing for sure what a team would end up negotiating those contracts for. Teams don't just say we're going to just make their QB the new highest paid QB, it's all negotiated and there's no way that Prescott will be in the upper echelon of highest paid QB's with his lone playoff win.
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No flaw, I mentioned Wilson having a chip when he signed his contract. I also mentioned that that chip and success was looked at as a defense and running game that got that chip. That's why he wasn't consider elite. He was considered a game manager that could use his legs. His numbers were very similar to daks, not great but good.
As far as mahomes, I said, IF he continues on this path. I said that because he could be a one year wonder, like you said. They could could actually take his 5th year option and make him play out through the 2021 season. I'm sure they'd like to take care of that by the end of the 2020 season , most teams do but it's not a must. They could also time care of that after the 2019 season. I also mentioned the cba expiring at the end of the 2020 season could hamper his contract. Like I said, IF, again IF he continues on this path and they sign him at the end of the 2020 season or even the end of the 2021 season he'll get north of 35m easily. The cba negotiations could have a affect on that. The t.v. contracts run out after the 2022 season and last time when they had a cba negotiation they also had the t.v. negotiation the same year and the new deal didn't kick in until 2014 and the cap didn't move for 2 years and only went up 3m in 3 years because the t.v. money didn't kick in until 2014. That year it went up 10m and has went up 10m every year since. So again, that could affect his contract and many others or at least the timing of when he signs one. But I'll stick to what I said, if he continues on this path and the cap continues in its path, he'll get north id 35m and my guess would be its closer to 40m than 35m.
As far as my guess , of course it's a guess. I'm going off how he played this past season , I said IF he continues and I said the cba and t.v. money could affect it. If everything stays on the path it is now, he'll be the highest paid player. That's just common sense and watching the nfl and paying attention to NFL contracts over the past 20 years.
If dak gets 28m he will be in the upper echelon for about a sesom of 2. Then others will sign and push his contract down the list. Do people not pay attention to this every year? Lol there are contracts coming up in the next year or 2 that will for more than Daks. Elite money 8 years ago was 20m, then it was 25m, then it 28m now it's 30m. Soon it will be 35m, then 38m then 40m. Rodgers is at 33m and Ryan at 30m. With in the next couple of years someone will tip that and might not be as good as them. That's when you have to look at what the cap is at the time and the % of the cap that player is taking up .
Personally I think dak should get 25m and he'll at least get that. That would put him at 13.2% of the cap. That's right where Alex Smith is at. At 28m he would be 14.8m that would still put him under Rodgers at 18.6, Ryan at 16.9, cousin's at 15.8, Stafford at 16.1, Ben at 15.2. It would put him with rivers and cam at 14.4 and 14.5.
He should get 25m a year , might get 28m and could get over 28m but even being a dak fan that would be too much. With all that said, I care more about the gutanteee than the avg annual. That's more for thhr agent and player and for fans like us to debate. Lol
