Trying to read tea leaves (always dangerous) and trying to assess this pragmatically, Henderson's ruling in the Greg Hardy case seems worth looking at.
Some notable excerpts:
“After consideration of all the record evidence and arguments, I conclude that the Commissioner acted within his authority and properly exercised his discretion in finding that Hardy violated the NFL Personal Conduct Policy, I find that the conduct of Hardy clearly violates the letter and spirit of any version of the PCP since its inception, and of the NFL Constitution and Bylaws long before then. The egregious conduct exhibited here is indefensible in the NFL. However, 10 games is simply too much, in my view, of an increase over prior cases without notice such as was done last year, when the ‘baseline’ for discipline in domestic violence or sexual assault cases was announced as a six-game suspension. Therefore, the discipline of Mr. Hardy hereby is modified to a suspension of four games; all other terms of the discipline letter remain in place.”
To me the sections I have bolded are quite telling.
First, Henderson indicates that he considers a violation of even the "spirit" of the Personal Conduct Policy to be enough to support league discipline. I think this raises a legitimate question as to whether all of the evidence that Zeke is pointing to will be enough to change things, since Henderson's statement could be read to mean that even being kind of bad will suffice. Not saying that that is certain, or that I agree, just that I see it as an open question.
Second, Henderson emphasized that Hardy's suspension was imposed before the league had formally adopted the current blanket policy of a minimum six-game suspension for first time DV offenders, and that therefore Hardy had no prior notice that acting as he did would or could result in that long of a ban. Henderson thought this was unfair. However, Henderson will likely have no such concerns about notice in Zeke's case, since the NFL now has a stated policy that has been in effect since before EE joined the league, and they followed it automatically in determining the sentence here.
I am not making predictions, or stating opinions, about what will or should happen on appeal.
But I think there are some possible clues here as to how Henderson thinks about and approaches these cases.