News: PJM: For the Cowboys and Dak Prescott, the Metrics No Longer Make a Lick of Sense

[gimmesix]

These posts arent mutually exclusive. Indeed, the way Jerry GOT BEATEN UP in 2021 negotiation (without any guarantee in this eventuality).....is why we need a new GM (and QB).

Having Dak on a $60m 4 year contract is probably the going rate, however, Jerry probably feels he 'owed' something for:
a) giving him the money in 2021
b) giving him the NTC and no-FT,
c) 4 years, when everyone else was getting 5
d) giving him all that even though he was coming off a serious injury
e) restructuring the deal, through years 2022-24, to give Dak the team to compete
f) leaving himself with $40m od Dead Money in 2025

We wont get a better QB - agree, but there's a realisation that at the 4 @ $60 (+ $40m Dead), is probably undoable to get to where we want to get to.

The compromise, is to give a career ending contract, (ala Hurts) which would give a 2/3 year ALL-IN opportunity (then a couple of year oblivion).....doing this with a genuine (independent) GM would be icing on the cake. If Dak is playing for 4 years.....sorry move on, as we cant overcome his composure issues without heavy spending on a defense and complimentary running game.

In the 1990s, we won Super Bowls because we not only had Troy Aikman, but we also had one of the best running games in the league and one of the best defenses. Even great QBs need that to defeat other top teams. Ever since Jimmy left, this front office has not understood that or how to get it done.

I have no problem with Dallas moving on from Dak, but too many focus on "his composure issues," when the problem is not building a team around him good enough to win. We get drawn into contracts, wanting to go find the next Patrick Mahomes, etc., and berating the QBs that we have (whether it's Romo or Dak) instead of understanding that if the real issue doesn't get fixed, then nothing is going to change. Maybe that's because we know the real issue has no chance of getting fixed. The Joneses aren't going anywhere and they are not going to hire a real GM. Therefore, their philosophy is always going to be flawed and hold us back, whether it's the 1990s philosophy after Jimmy left where they basically treated the draft as an afterthought and Jerry tried to buy his way to another title by throwing money around in free agency or the current philosophy where they lean on the draft, fill with cheap FAs and ignore adding quality FAs.

My only hope is that when they hired Parcells, they actually gave him more say over the team's philosophy than they have anyone since Jimmy. However, I don't know if they will ever do that again.

 

[Reid1boys]

He said on the Herd Friday you cant pay great money for good play.

And Jimmy had exactly ow much success in Miami dealing with the cap?

 

[Reid1boys]

Save $50m and roll with Lance right now for cheap cheap. So we win 10 games instead of 12. This team needs CHANGE Bigly!

bahhahahahahaha..... hilarious that you think you can just put in Lance and still win 10 games. This is hilarious. A guy had a DECENT game, and as the late Denny Greene once said... if you want to crown em', then crown em'.

 

[Proof]

Ok, so we let Dak walk.

We now have to eat $40 million on next year's cap for a player no longer with the team and we also have no viable replacement on the roster.

Whats the plan? The draft?

2025 is one of the worst drafts for QBs in some time, you basically got 3 guys that would even remotely be considered day 1 starters and even then they are not considered "elite". You got Deion's boy in Colorado, you got Ewers from my beloved Longhorns, and you got Beck from Georgia.............and with Dak playing this year, we are going to be too low anyways to get one of these guys without mortgaging the future moving up from the 20s to the top 5.

So, again, what is the plan? Lance? He is not ready and making him the starter could lead to a non-playoff season, something Jerry is totally against because he said the most important thing was for the Cowboys to be hanging around the rim. You are not hanging around the rim if you are a lottery team, so Jerry would not be signing off on a possible tank season.

So, whats the plan if we let Dak walk knowing that Lance is not ready and we are going to be picking too low in the draft to get one of the studs? You see, the decision to let Dak walk is not as easy as some make it out to be when you start considering the alternatives.

just really the absolute worst timeline lol

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I feel this way to but on the other side of the coin…does their really need to be an alternative solution?

Well......without an alternative solution, do you not risk setting the franchise back 2-3 years? That's 2-3 wasted years off our young ALL-PROs or potential ALL_PROs careers.

 

[Brax]

Ok, so we let Dak walk.

We now have to eat $40 million on next year's cap for a player no longer with the team and we also have no viable replacement on the roster.

Whats the plan? The draft?

2025 is one of the worst drafts for QBs in some time, you basically got 3 guys that would even remotely be considered day 1 starters and even then they are not considered "elite". You got Deion's boy in Colorado, you got Ewers from my beloved Longhorns, and you got Beck from Georgia.............and with Dak playing this year, we are going to be too low anyways to get one of these guys without mortgaging the future moving up from the 20s to the top 5.

So, again, what is the plan? Lance? He is not ready and making him the starter could lead to a non-playoff season, something Jerry is totally against because he said the most important thing was for the Cowboys to be hanging around the rim. You are not hanging around the rim if you are a lottery team, so Jerry would not be signing off on a possible tank season.

So, whats the plan if we let Dak walk knowing that Lance is not ready and we are going to be picking too low in the draft to get one of the studs? You see, the decision to let Dak walk is not as easy as some make it out to be when you start considering the alternatives.

Actually it is an easy call based on history, let Lance start and see what he has for the season and how he develops, it also allows you to evaluate MM as a QB guru and HC. It’s never easy to change but at some point you have to change the mindset of your thinking if you’re the GM because 28 years says you are doing it wrong. Tell Dak he’s not in your long term plans and he will be the emergency QB for the year and chances are he will request a trade if he really wants to play, if he doesn’t want a trade then cut him before the season starts and save the 25 million in cap dollars. Unfortunately the Dallas FO doesn’t have the courage to do it.

 

[Proof]

To those fans who are using the 40m in dead money as a reason to keep Dak - can you provide any evidence of this approach working?

However there is recent evidence of taking the hit on dead money and moving on actually working e.g. Rams, Eagles and SF.

Rams got a better qb in return, eagles were able to trade their qb, and had the luxury of multiple first rounders to stack the roster. jimmy g was a free agent.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Well......without an alternative solution, do you not risk setting the franchise back 2-3 years? That's 2-3 wasted years off our young ALL-PROs or potential ALL_PROs careers.

I agree but aren’t we kind of doing that now? They did not do what they needed to do in order to make this team better from last year.

 

[Qcard]

Actually it is an easy call based on history, let Lance start and see what he has for the season and how he develops, it also allows you to evaluate MM as a QB guru and HC. It’s never easy to change but at some point you have to change the mindset of your thinking if you’re the GM because 28 years says you are doing it wrong. Tell Dak he’s not in your long term plans and he will be the emergency QB for the year and chances are he will request a trade if he really wants to play, if he doesn’t want a trade then cut him before the season starts and save the 25 million in cap dollars. Unfortunately the Dallas FO doesn’t have the courage to do it.

So next year QB1 will get $25M - $40M market value plus added Prescott's $40M Cap hit it 2025.....that is minimum $65M on cap books in 2025 for whoever is QB1

Dak Haters...."real easy"

 

[Creeper]

I think that is the reason to keep him. It’s a bad idea to start over when we are so close.

I said that going into this offseason. They needed a couple of quality players to get over the hump. But Jerry was unwilling to get those players so now we are worse off than last year.

Others have already said it but I will repeat. As long as he insists on building only through the draft and not plugging holes with quality free agents, this team will enter every season with weaknesses that will hold them back against good teams. Nobody can expect to win a battle fighting with one had tied behind his back, which is what Jerry is doing when he refuses to sign a single quality free agent. We've been through why the draft alone is not a winning strategy. By the time players develop, their contracts are up and they walk because the good ones ate too expensive to keep. We are seeing it now with CeeDee.

 

[Streifenkarl]

This is somewhat true ........but in different situations. Moving from Romo's issue was more about his health, not money/contract and yes they did start a long-term plan for his replacement. Remember the 2016 offseason? We were drafting 4th overall......I'm not getting into it but we considered several options to draft his replacement before settling on Dak. They thought Romo could play at least a couple more years.

This situation with Dak is ALL about the contract.......and it appears they HAVE NOT planned well for his replacement at all. NO team will let their ALL-PRO QB walk WITHOUT a plan and/or a better option.

Oh I agree. What I'm saying is, do you really expect any kind of plan when Dak's next contract is up? As I said, at some point we will pay for Jerry's chaos. And after 8 years of Dak I'm ready for it now.

 

[IrishAnto]

The sky is blue too. Water is wet.

Brilliant counterpoint

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I agree but aren’t we kind of doing that now? They did not do what they needed to do in order to make this team better from last year.

I agree but with Dak we KNOW our chances of a playoff is pretty high, very high in fact. With a rookie or Russell Wilson, Justin Field type, we will struggle to even make the playoffs. That's what's interesting about those complaining about Dak can't win in the playoffs. GETTING TO PLAYOFFS puts you near the doorstep of the Super Bowl. Without the playoffs ........you locked out the fence (lol) with zero chance.

I agree but aren’t we kind of doing that now? They did not do what they needed to do in order to make this team better from last year.

 

[Rockport]

He said on the Herd Friday you cant pay great money for good play.

You watch Collin Cowturd? Thanks for explaining.

 

[CowboyoWales]

In the 1990s, we won Super Bowls because we not only had Troy Aikman, but we also had one of the best running games in the league and one of the best defenses. Even great QBs need that to defeat other top teams. Ever since Jimmy left, this front office has not understood that or how to get it done.

I have no problem with Dallas moving on from Dak, but too many focus on "his composure issues," when the problem is not building a team around him good enough to win. We get drawn into contracts, wanting to go find the next Patrick Mahomes, etc., and berating the QBs that we have (whether it's Romo or Dak) instead of understanding that if the real issue doesn't get fixed, then nothing is going to change. Maybe that's because we know the real issue has no chance of getting fixed. The Joneses aren't going anywhere and they are not going to hire a real GM. Therefore, their philosophy is always going to be flawed and hold us back, whether it's the 1990s philosophy after Jimmy left where they basically treated the draft as an afterthought and Jerry tried to buy his way to another title by throwing money around in free agency or the current philosophy where they lean on the draft, fill with cheap FAs and ignore adding quality FAs.

My only hope is that when they hired Parcells, they actually gave him more say over the team's philosophy than they have anyone since Jimmy. However, I don't know if they will ever do that again.

Then the CAP happened.

 

[Qcard]

He said on the Herd Friday you cant pay great money for good play.

Why are you projecting Jimmy's take about Tua, Herbert and Lawrence onto runner up MVP Prescott??

 

[Rockport]

That's because Dak has had the advantage of playing a historically weak NFC East and the Cowboys are king of the 8-8's and under.
And during that same stretch of time, Dak has choked against every real contender he has played against.
And that's why he doesn't deserve an extension.

Dak, Dak, Dak. Find something else in life.

 

[ArtClink]

This is not going to change whether we pay Dak or don't. The holes existed when he was on a rookie contract, they existed before he was even here and they are going to exist after he's gone. The holes are there because the Joneses choose to not participate in an aspect of team building, filling those holes with quality free agents.

We can get to the playoffs with those holes primarily because of the really good players we've gotten in the draft, but the playoff teams we face have filled their holes with quality FAs while we have not, and it comes back to bite us.

So many fans were happy to see Dan Quinn leave after this season, and Quinn definitely deserves some criticism, but Quinn also was forced to play a safety at linebacker because the GM of this team didn't fill that hole when LVE went down. He was forced to cover for a starting CB playing with a separated shoulder. He had to adjust his scheme for not having the type of DTs that wreak havoc on the inside. Quinn wasn't playing with a loaded deck. He had some very nice tools, but also weak links to be exploited.

The front office is the problem, but we get caught up in making this player or that player the scapegoat. Complete teams have won Super Bowls with less than Dak, with less than Romo, but this team has never been complete because the front office won't finish it when it's primed to compete.

Spot on.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Brilliant counterpoint

I’m just saying we know this. We know contracts are out of hand and that people in power don’t care.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Why are you projecting Jimmy's take about Tua, Herbert and Lawrence onto runner up MVP Prescott??

Great question.