Prescott NFL's leading passer on 15+ yard targets

Proof

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Decreased usage leads to increased efficiency.

Also that speaks to average not overperformance.

incredulous.gif
 

NorthTexan95

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Passes that traveled at least 15 yards in the air.

Does this mean 15 yards from the line of scrimmage? Or does it mean 15 yards from where the quarterback threw the ball?

Also ...

Does this mean 15 yards down field or 15 yards regardless of direction? Could the pass travele5 yards down field but go over 15 yards because it went towards the sideline?
 

percyhoward

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Does this mean 15 yards from the line of scrimmage? Or does it mean 15 yards from where the quarterback threw the ball?

Also ...

Does this mean 15 yards down field or 15 yards regardless of direction? Could the pass travele5 yards down field but go over 15 yards because it went towards the sideline?
Target distance is the difference between the line of scrimmage and the yard line of the reception.

If you have the ball at your own 25, drop back 5 yards and throw a pass that's caught at your own 40, the target distance is 15 yards. If you turn and throw to the opposite sideline and the ball is caught at your own 25, the target distance is 0 yards.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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No not exactly. All that means is each of his passes are weighted more.

Not when it is proportionally similar.

And usage has an inverse correlation to performance. There are all manner of mechanics that explain this. Fatigue, predicatability, the limits on gameplans
 

JD_KaPow

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But you're better off when you lead in passer rating on 15+ yard targets than in number of 20+ or 40+ yard plays.

Top 5 teams, 20+ yard plays
26-24-1 (.520)

Top 5 (and ties), 40+ yard plays
35-34-1 (.507)

Top 5, passer rating on 15+ yard targets
31-12-1 (.721) in games those QB played
Part of that is the luxury of being able to pick your spots. When you're behind a lot late, you end up taking a lot more risks, throwing deep passes in unfavorable conditions. You're complete some of them, but your efficiency goes down. When you're never behind by more than a score late (and the Cowboys are never behind by more than a score late), you aren't forced into those situations. You throw 15+ only when you want to, not because you have to.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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But you're better off when you lead in passer rating on 15+ yard targets than in number of 20+ or 40+ yard plays.

Top 5 teams, 20+ yard plays
26-24-1 (.520)

Top 5 (and ties), 40+ yard plays
35-34-1 (.507)

Top 5, passer rating on 15+ yard targets
31-12-1 (.721) in games those QB played

A sample size of 45 without context to demonstrate variance? How lovely.
 

percyhoward

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Part of that is the luxury of being able to pick your spots.
Of course. But then, your own efficiency plays a big role in setting you up in those favorable situations. And Dak's actually been better at these longer targets when he's behind.

15+ yd targets, Trailing
11 of 22 (50%) 300 yd 4 td 0 int 13.6 ypa 135.4
 

Proof

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You don't understand my argument and have no real response. It's becoming the norm with you.

It's a fairly straight forward premise. Just don't see the purpose. Doesn't warrant a particular response, just incredulity towards you having to be that guy.
 

gmoney112

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He's the only with at least 50 attempts and no picks. Stafford is close but his completion % isn't near as good either.

Everyone with at least 60 attempts has 3 picks. Brady only has 39 attempts and also no picks.

Which just goes to show, throwing the ball downfield more just leads to turnovers. And turnovers suck.

Give me Prescott/Brady type efficiency and turnover ratio any day of the week.
 
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