Prescott NFL's leading passer on 15+ yard targets

[bayeslife]

Not when it is proportionally similar.

And usage has an inverse correlation to performance. There are all manner of mechanics that explain this. Fatigue, predicatability, the limits on gameplans

I'm not understanding what you're trying to say here. That performance dips the more attempts a QB has? I think you would find many cases each NFL season where that is untrue.

It would be hard to make the case of inverse correlation without a high standard deviation.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Still looks like a dink and dunk player with an eternity to throw to me. Strangely enough that is exactly how the Baltimore Sun described it too after Sunday's game. But at 9-1, we're gonna roll with it...

I understand the criticism but a lot of the top QB's have done it exactly that way– "dinking & dunking down the field", even though I consider it more of "picking your opponent apart" Ken Anderson, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brees, Peyton and even Brady. And no I'm not inferring that Prescott is anywhere close to any of these guys. But all those guys would take the 5 to 10 yard pass play all day long with an occasional shot down the field. They weren't likely to take big chances hence their pick numbers were usually low.

But Prescott is of the same ilk. He's not going to take the chances that Romo would, especially after only being in the league for 10 games, but he's not going to have the picks either.

 

[Idgit]

You guys crack me up. I love what Dak is doing and once Wentz gets some weapons, wait and see what he does. I can only hope he breaks a leg! Kidding or maybe not.

If it's weapons, any idea why his numbers are dropping this year within the season with the same group of weapons? They're just dropping passes at a higher rate as the season goes on?

 

[drawandstrike]

If it's weapons, any idea why his numbers are dropping this year within the season with the same group of weapons? They're just dropping passes at a higher rate as the season goes on?

By the 4th game defenses had plenty of film to work with on how they don't really trust Wentz yet to go deeper than 10 yards. His 2 early interceptions vs. the Giants seems to have stung the coaching staff, they were starting to let him go deeper and backed off after that.

Teams are simply contesting all the short stuff and daring the Eagles to beat them by having Wentz throw deeper or running the ball and so far the defenses are winning.

 

[CT Dal Fan]

My quick analysis of this thread that we all should agree on:

That Dak Prescott kid is pretty darn good and isn't even close to how good he's going to be.

That should give all Cowboys fans shivers of excitement and the rest if the NFC East shivers of fear.

 

[drawandstrike]

My quick analysis of this thread that we all should agree on:

That Dak Prescott kid is pretty darn good and isn't even close to how good he's going to be.

That should give all Cowboys fans shivers of excitement and the rest if the NFC East shivers of fear.

Imagine what Dak is going to look like in his SECOND year running a pro offense after being the starter for all of OTA's, training camp and the preseason next year. [Assuming Tony leaves, loses the training camp competition or retires]

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It's a fairly straight forward premise. Just don't see the purpose. Doesn't warrant a particular response, just incredulity towards you having to be that guy.

Lots of words and nothing to say. Blanket denials are certainly simple and require no thought.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm not understanding what you're trying to say here. That performance dips the more attempts a QB has? I think you would find many cases each NFL season where that is untrue.

It would be hard to make the case of inverse correlation without a high standard deviation.

I guess you missed all of those talks we have had over the past few years about how Romo performed more efficienlty when you limited his attempts.

I think it's funny that now it is controversial.

 

[Proof]

Lots of words and nothing to say. Blanket denials are certainly simple and require no thought.

If that's a lot of words, wait til you get a chance to read one of your posts. You're in for a treat.

What exactly did I deny? Just said I don't see a reason to discredit the stat, on a cowboys message board no less. I mean outside of being a contrarian, for the sake of it.

 

[Idgit]

By the 4th game defenses had plenty of film to work with on how they don't really trust Wentz yet to go deeper than 10 yards. His 2 early interceptions vs. the Giants seems to have stung the coaching staff, they were starting to let him go deeper and backed off after that.

Teams are simply contesting all the short stuff and daring the Eagles to beat them by having Wentz throw deeper or running the ball and so far the defenses are winning.

Yeah, it's sort of obvious that he's playing some good defenses and also hasn't really expanded his game since early in the year. Now it's on him to adapt to the adjustments. Some guys do right away, some guys take a while. Some guys never adjust. He's got all the physical talent in the world, but NFL QBs need more than just physical talent.

His fans should just acknowledge it for what it is instead of blaming the tools around him. But even it it is everybody else at fault and not Wentz, it's still a big job to build around him and no sure thing they'll do it right. The difference between a very limited QB because he's limited and a very limited QB because he doesn't have a lot of weapons is not all that great a difference.

Besides, great QBs are supposed to lift the level of play of those around them, not hide behind a fanbase willing to make excuses instead.

 

[Plankton]

Yeah, it's sort of obvious that he's playing some good defenses and also hasn't really expanded his game since early in the year. Now it's on him to adapt to the adjustments. Some guys do right away, some guys take a while. Some guys never adjust. He's got all the physical talent in the world, but NFL QBs need more than just physical talent.

His fans should just acknowledge it for what it is instead of blaming the tools around him. But even it it is everybody else at fault and not Wentz, it's still a big job to build around him and no sure thing they'll do it right. The difference between a very limited QB because he's limited and a very limited QB because he doesn't have a lot of weapons is not all that great a difference.

Besides, great QBs are supposed to lift the level of play of those around them, not hide behind a fanbase willing to make excuses instead.

I think a lot of people forget that, in addition to playing against athletes a cut below in college, Wentz only started 23 games at North Dakota State. He is relatively inexperienced as a quarterback compared to a lot of rookies (Goff, Kessler, Cook, Hackenberg and Prescott all started more games in college than Wentz).

 

[Craig]

I dont really care about 15 yard passes, but that completion percentage is in line with what i see when he pushes the ball at all.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Stop with the Wentz doesn't have weapons. He has multiple first round picks on offense, if he was so great he would elevate his team's play not make them worst.

Dak gets Escobar involved, even had Street looking like a reciever in preseason. That's what the greats do.....not complain about first round picks (more then 1)

 

[Idgit]

I think a lot of people forget that, in addition to playing against athletes a cut below in college, Wentz only started 23 games at North Dakota State. He is relatively inexperienced as a quarterback compared to a lot of rookies (Goff, Kessler, Cook, Hackenberg and Prescott all started more games in college than Wentz).

Yeah. I don't really want to knock Wentz very much, because he's a good prospect. But he was elevated too high when he should not have been, and the people who did it are too embarrassed to just admit it's actually been Dak who's become the phenom. Looking back on those September headlines when it was 'Carson Wentzylvania' and all that nonsense seems like a lifetime ago with us sitting at 9-1 with the top two rookie offensive players in the league.

 

[AdamJT13]

Decreased usage leads to increased efficiency.

That's laughably incorrect.

 

[marchetta]

That can't be right. Dak can't throw deep. I know that for a fact, since I read it here.

 

[AdamJT13]

I guess you missed all of those talks we have had over the past few years about how Romo performed more efficienlty when you limited his attempts.

That was never true. The premise that Romo (or any quarterback) is better when you "limit their attempts" is ridiculously misguided. It is the efficiency that usually limits the need to attempt more passes, not the limited attempts that lead to efficiency. Inefficiency creates the need to throw more.

If what you are saying was actually true, then quarterbacks would get worse as their attempts increase, and that's obviously not the case. In 2014, for example, Romo's passer rating INCREASED as his number of attempts increased. Over his first 10 passes in games, his rating was 111.3. Over his next 10 attempts, it was 112.8. Over his next 10, it went up to 113.6. And over the next 10, it was 126.2. In other words, he became MORE effective as his attempts increased -- exactly the opposite of what you claimed.

Last year, although he missed most of the season, it was pretty much the same. He had a MUCH HIGHER rating on attempts 20-plus than he did on his first 20 attempts in games. Same with 2012. I could go on. Your notion is completely backward.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

That was never true. The premise that Romo (or any quarterback) is better when you "limit their attempts" is ridiculously misguided. It is the efficiency that usually limits the need to attempt more passes, not the limited attempts that lead to efficiency. Inefficiency creates the need to throw more.

If what you are saying was actually true, then quarterbacks would get worse as their attempts increase, and that's obviously not the case. In 2014, for example, Romo's passer rating INCREASED as his number of attempts increased. Over his first 10 passes in games, his rating was 111.3. Over his next 10 attempts, it was 112.8. Over his next 10, it went up to 113.6. And over the next 10, it was 126.2. In other words, he became MORE effective as his attempts increased -- exactly the opposite of what you claimed.

Last year, although he missed most of the season, it was pretty much the same. He had a MUCH HIGHER rating on attempts 20-plus than he did on his first 20 attempts in games. Same with 2012. I could go on. Your notion is completely backward.

Not so with Eli Manning http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/5526/eli-manning
Cam Newton http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/13994/cam-newton
Tom Brady http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/2330/year/2015
Drew Brees http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/2580/drew-brees
Aaron Rdgers http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/8439/year/2015

 

[ConstantReboot]

Stop with the Wentz doesn't have weapons. He has multiple first round picks on offense, if he was so great he would elevate his team's play not make them worst.

Dak gets Escobar involved, even had Street looking like a reciever in preseason. That's what the greats do.....not complain about first round picks (more then 1)

Exactly what I was thinking. Dak just makes everyone better around him. While the excuses are going around that Wentz doesn't have weapons.

 

[DogFace]

No surprise Wince isn't anywhere to be seen. Or his fanboy.

It is a great time to be a fan.