Pro Comparison: Nick Foles, St. Louis Rams
Overall, Lynch doesn't have better characteristics than Christian Hackenberg (Penn State) or Jared Goff (California), but his production is eye-opening, as are his body type and athleticism. He's definitely a Round 1 talent should he enter the 2016 draft, but I wouldn't endorse him as a No. 1 overall-type player as of now. It's more likely he'll be a player in the 10-20 range, similar to Derek Carr's ranking but a more similar player, build and athlete to Nick Foles.
Strengths: Paxton Lynch is listed at 6'7", 245 pounds. He carries his size well and is surprisingly agile and mobile for a big quarterback. This isn't Joe Flacco. He can move well and executes on half and full rollouts. Lynch is a good, strong athlete. His arm strength shows up as above average with velocity and spin across the field. Lynch throws a pretty deep ball with good spin and touch, and here he has shown top-level placement.
Lynch is a very efficient thrower with 17 touchdowns to just one interception as of this writing. He doesn't turn the ball over and completes around 70 percent of his passes in an offense that features a steady mix of underneath and deep routes. Lynch is a three-year starter, and it shows in his patience in the pocket and in his ability to let the play develop in front of him. He'll maneuver in the pocket to give the play time to develop and trusts his receivers to get open.
Weaknesses: My rule for scouting is that I won't write up a player until I've seen three games. For quarterbacks, that rule becomes five games. Why is this a weakness? Because Lynch hasn't seen much of a challenge on the schedule. For this report, I looked at games against Ole Miss, Missouri State, Cincinnati, South Florida and Tulsa. If strength of schedule is an issue for Jared Goff (or Derek Carr two years ago), then it's going to be an issue for Lynch.
On the field, Lynch's arm strength isn't what I had expected given his size and hype. The ball tends to flutter when thrown on a deeper out. Lynch has a wide base when throwing the ball and can revert to a flat-footed throwing motion without great upper-body torque. This leaves him exposed as an arm thrower, and he's not strong enough to pull this off. It would be fair to characterize Lynch as a rhythm thrower. When he's on, he's very good and his mechanics seem crisp and tight. When he's off, though, his ball placement often misses to the back hip or back shoulder, and the ball flutters.