Rookie Preseason Passing Brilliance (Revisited)

[JDSmith]

Not....so.....fast.

What is his passer rating with the INT that was called back?

As you know, having an INT called back is pretty freakin rare soooo....

It's right around a 120. Look at Russell Wilson's numbers - they are nearly the same but with the one extra interception.
Dak had a slightly higher completion percentage, a couple less yards.

 

[noshame]

Sadly, Dak can excel as Wilson did and the Cowboys still lose double digit games. Too much of the Cowboys' meager recent success has been predicated on Romo's ability to be perfect or pull off Houdini acts.

Oh lord

 

[noshame]

I think what makes Dak different is the mental part of his game
Time will tell but I feel the kids going to do real well

 

[Gameover]

Sadly, Dak can excel as Wilson did and the Cowboys still lose double digit games. Too much of the Cowboys' meager recent success has been predicated on Romo's ability to be perfect or pull off Houdini acts.

Dog crap.

 

[Gameover]

It was all Murray.

first half of the season, romo in the second half.

 

[percyhoward]

What does it mean? Maybe nothing. Small samples and exhibition games can be very misleading, and this is a combination of both.

Small samples. They tell you nothing

Hadn't thought of that, Abe.

 

[percyhoward]

Murray took all the pressure off Romo. Helped give him favorable matchups.

There's more that goes into a 122.4 rating than just getting favorable match ups. A rating that high in the three biggest games of the year means that you're making the right decision and executing perfectly almost every time. In the Philly game, he had to recognize when Witten was going to be bracketed, and when Dez was going to be doubled. Against the Lions, he had to know where the run blitz was coming from and attack that empty spot. And you have to be extremely accurate, and you have to avoid mistakes completely. All while under the pressure of it being the most important game of the year at that point.

If Dak takes advantage of the match ups and ends up with a rating in the 100 range in the first three games, I guess you won't be impressed at all, because Elliott took all the pressure off him by helping to give him favorable match ups. Me, I'll be doing cartwheels, because a 100 rating would mean that he made the right decision more often than not, that he was executing, and that he handled blitzes while he was taking advantage of those match ups.

 

[CCBoy]

It's hard not to draw the comparison, especially after filtering out the performances of other players who were less consistent, or who didn't have as many attempts against starting defenses.

I'm still chuckling to myself, when I think that Dak will be going up against Philadelphia's Wentz, now...

 

[CCBoy]

There's more that goes into a 122.4 rating than just getting favorable match ups. A rating that high in the three biggest games of the year means that you're making the right decision and executing perfectly almost every time. In the Philly game, he had to recognize when Witten was going to be bracketed, and when Dez was going to be doubled. Against the Lions, he had to know where the run blitz was coming from and attack that empty spot. And you have to be extremely accurate, and you have to avoid mistakes completely. All while under the pressure of it being the most important game of the year at that point.

If Dak takes advantage of the match ups and ends up with a rating in the 100 range in the first three games, I guess you won't be impressed at all, because Elliott took all the pressure off him by helping to give him favorable match ups. Me, I'll be doing cartwheels, because a 100 rating would mean that he made the right decision more often than not, that he was executing, and that he handled blitzes while he was taking advantage of those match ups.

Not me...scheme and matching up within that criteria is a huge plus.

 

[percyhoward]

Not me...scheme and matching up within that criteria is a huge plus.

"Not me" what, CC?

 

[CCBoy]

"Not me" what, CC?

Sorry, Percy, the starting premise was a restriction upon clarity of play due to a few variables that could limit the view.

I went right by that, and stated that I have seen enough at this point in time, to take Prescott over Wentz, who was predicted to walk on water. I'm going the eyeball test for the start of this season, and Wentz is measuring on the weak side for Philadelphia.

 

[Broges74]

Great breakdown. Another breakdown would be difference between the rookie in question and the other QBs to have played for the same team that season.

 

[ufcrules1]

There's more that goes into a 122.4 rating than just getting favorable match ups. A rating that high in the three biggest games of the year means that you're making the right decision and executing perfectly almost every time. In the Philly game, he had to recognize when Witten was going to be bracketed, and when Dez was going to be doubled. Against the Lions, he had to know where the run blitz was coming from and attack that empty spot. And you have to be extremely accurate, and you have to avoid mistakes completely. All while under the pressure of it being the most important game of the year at that point.

If Dak takes advantage of the match ups and ends up with a rating in the 100 range in the first three games, I guess you won't be impressed at all, because Elliott took all the pressure off him by helping to give him favorable match ups. Me, I'll be doing cartwheels, because a 100 rating would mean that he made the right decision more often than not, that he was executing, and that he handled blitzes while he was taking advantage of those match ups.

I never said I wasn't impressed with Romo's 2014 season. I just pointed out what lead to his success. Elliot will most certainly be taking some pressure off Dak and so will that awesome oline. How can anyone deny that? With that said, you have to at least be a good to very good QB to fully take advantage of mismatches. I've never said Romo wasn't. My issue with Romo has always been the win and in games and playoff games where he played well below his regular season stats. 2 playoff wins in a decade just doesn't cut it.

Romo's best year ever happened to coincide with our team having the leading rusher in the entire NFL. We have been round and round about this... I know you think Romo was a miracle worker in 2014, but the truth is he did as well as he did because of how dominant that oline and running game were.

 

[Risen Star]

The kid is going to have to prove he can read defenses...that's all that's left

When his first and second reads aren't open, is he capable of still being successful ?

There's no much left for him to prove...he's got everything else...but this one is huge

That's all that's left? Hardly. Read defenses. Make accurate throws into tighter windows in the regular season. Respond favorably after getting smacked in the mouth by defenses that are game planning and beginning to compile a book on you. Rally your team around you in times of adversity. Protect the football.

Prescott has proven nothing so far other than an NFL preseason didn't phase him in the least.

 

[percyhoward]

Great breakdown. Another breakdown would be difference between the rookie in question and the other QBs to have played for the same team that season.

FWIW, all these guys from the "filtered" list were day one starters in their rookie season, except for Nick Foles. And he's the only one who didn't end up with at least 13 rookie starts, although he did become the starter for 6 games after Vick was injured. So that's the only comparison we'd be able to make. Foles had a 79.1 rating that year, while Vick had a 78.1 in his 10 starts.

137.8 Dak Prescott 39 of 50 454 yd 5 td 0 int
119.4 Russell Wilson 35 of 52 464 yd 5 td 1 int
112.2 Nick Foles 36 of 57 507 yd 6 td 2 in
99.5 Blake Bortles 28 of 46 435 yd 1 td 0 int
84.6 Sam Bradford 27 of 49 270 yd 2 td 0 int

 

[percyhoward]

My issue with Romo has always been the win and in games and playoff games where he played well below his regular season stats. 2 playoff wins in a decade just doesn't cut it.

Then your issue is actually with the team, not the QB. Romo is the reason we were ever in those types of games in the first place.

Franchise History
Seasons with top 10 QB, pass defense ranked 20th or worse
1974
2006
2008
2011
2012
2013

 

[ufcrules1]

Then your issue is actually with the team, not the QB. Romo is the reason we were ever in those types of games in the first place.

Franchise History
Seasons with top 10 QB, pass defense ranked 20th or worse
1974
2006
2008
2011
2012
2013

My issues have been with the front office and most of the team over the years. Romo doesn't get a free pass because you like him a lot. I've watched him self implode in big games(win and in and playoff games) more than once. Pretty soon, you won't be talking about him anymore and will be forced to move on. I look forward to that time.

 

[jday]

This first part is an update of a post I made a couple of weeks ago on the highest preseason passer ratings of rookie QB in the last 10 years. Minimum 40 attempts and a preseason rating of 95. The QB's rating in real games (if any) is at the end. Adding in 2016 performances, the only new names are those of Prescott and the Lions' Jake Rudock.

137.8 Dak Prescott 4th Dal 16 --
129.6 Brett Hundley 5th GB 15 --
122.6 Brett Ratliff FA NYJ 07 --
111.2 Teddy Bridgewater 1st Min 14 87.0
110.3 Russell Wilson 3rd Sea 12 101.8
110.1 Nick Foles 3rd Phi 12 87.3
110.0 Blake Bortles 1st Jac 14 80.0
109.9 Colt Brennan 6th Was 08 --
108.3 Jay Cutler 1st Den 06 86.0
108.2 Derek Carr 2nd Oak 14 83.7
106.6 Jeff Tuel FA Buf 13 45.1
105.3 Bruce Gradkowski 6th TB 06 65.8
100.2 Matt Flynn 7th GB 08 85.7
99.9 Trent Edwards 3rd Buf 07 75.5
99.0 Jimmy Garoppolo 2nd NE 14 91.9
97.6 Zach Mettenberger 6th Ten 14 75.4
96.3 Jake Rudock 6th Det 16 --
96.5 Brady Quinn 1st Cle 07 64.4
95.9 Sam Bradford 1st StL 10 81.0
95.5 Matt Leinart 1st Ari 06 70.2

I didn't expect at the time of my previous post that Romo would go down in the next game, meaning that Dak would only play 3 games. Eliminating preseason game 4 gives us a smaller, but actually a better sample to draw from. I took these same 20 QB and compared their performances in games 1-3 only, removing any players with fewer than 40 total attempts (Dak had 50), any who had more than 20 attempts in the first game (Dak had 12), any who did not have at least 10 attempts with a rating of 85 in the third game (Dak had a 23 attempts with a 99 rating), and any who had more than two-thirds of his attempts in just one game.

137.8 Dak Prescott 39 of 50 454 yd 5 td 0 int
119.4 Russell Wilson 35 of 52 464 yd 5 td 1 int
112.2 Nick Foles 36 of 57 507 yd 6 td 2 in
99.5 Blake Bortles 28 of 46 435 yd 1 td 0 int
84.6 Sam Bradford 27 of 49 270 yd 2 td 0 int

What does it mean? Maybe nothing. Small samples and exhibition games can be very misleading, and this is a combination of both.

Amazing preseason performance though. No other can match its consistency.

That's why I chuckle when people intimate "we all have seen this before" attempting to compare what Dak has done to other preseason MVP's suggesting it is only fools gold. It may be an aberration, but no one in the history of football has seen anything like what Dak did. Vanilla or not there is something to be said of making it look easy. I think he will be fine with Rocky Road, too... besides, it doesn't get much rockier than what Seattle did.

 

[percyhoward]

My issues have been with the front office and most of the team over the years. Romo doesn't get a free pass because you like him a lot. I've watched him self implode in big games(win and in and playoff games) more than once. Pretty soon, you won't be talking about him anymore and will be forced to move on. I look forward to that time.

I never said Romo deserves a free pass, that's just you overstating my argument into one you can defeat. It isn't that the defense's mistakes or the front office's mistakes are any more important than Romo's -- it's that there have been far more of them.

If lack of playoff success is so important to you, how come the reasons for it aren't?

 

[CWR]

My issues have been with the front office and most of the team over the years. Romo doesn't get a free pass because you like him a lot. I've watched him self implode in big games(win and in and playoff games) more than once. Pretty soon, you won't be talking about him anymore and will be forced to move on. I look forward to that time.

Thats right Romo has been maddening at times. Part of the reason losing him these last two seasons is such a shame is he seems to have grown and matured as a decision maker. Now youll never be able to take the gunslinger mentality out of him, thats what makes him great and makes you pull your hair out at the same time. Heck he idolized Favres game. You know the same qb thats thrown more INTs than anyone in history. But at the end of the day they are/were both great qbs. Ive said it before too, Romo was never set up to succeed. He played for a long time with out todays dominant oline and with a weak running game, all coupled with a porous defense that has a tendency to collapse in the 4th quarter(its no supprise he has the most 4th quarter comebacks of any QB) Think of the years of Julius Jones, MB3, and Felix. Hes had 6 seasons without a 1K rb. Romo was constantly being asked to do too much and forced to carry the team.He tried in vein many times to will this team to win only to end up as the goat. All we can hope is that this organization doesnt put that same undue pressure on Dak.