Scratch Moreno from the list of free agent RB's

[gimmesix]

A 29 year old running back that up until last year had a total of 1700 rushing yards in his career and he only had one season where he didn't play 16 games so injuries were not an excuse. No thanks. Law of avgs say he returns to his career averages before he puts up another 1200+ yard season.

And what do we have where the law of averages say we've even got a shot at a back having a 1,200-plus-yard season?

If any back can succeed behind this line (as the line of thinking goes), then it would seem that a 1,200-plus-yard, 5.4 YPC back would have a greater shot at repeating those numbers than a 500-plus-yard, 3.4 YPC back would have of improving to that level.

 

[jrumann59]

And what do we have where the law of averages say we've even got a shot at back having a 1,200-plus-yard season?

If any back can succeed behind this line (as the line of thinking goes), then it would seem that a 1,200-plus-yard, 5.4 YPC back would have a greater shot at repeating those numbers than a 500-plus-yard, 3.4 YPC back would have of improving to that level.

We will agree to disagree. Anyone thinking that Justin Forsett is head and shoulder better than any of the RB we have here needs to understand he is RBBC RB who happened to land in place with an offensive coordinator that knew him. his numbers will come back to "normal" now that Kubiak is no longer there.

 

[gimmesix]

We will agree to disagree. Anyone thinking that Justin Forsett is head and shoulder better than any of the RB we have here needs to understand he is RBBC RB who happened to land in place with an offensive coordinator that knew him. his numbers will come back to "normal" now that Kubiak is no longer there.

Yes, I know. He's not head and shoulders above the backs we have. Murray's not head and shoulders above the backs we have. The numbers are simply misleading when they don't favor Dallas.

 

[jrumann59]

Yes, I know. He's not head and shoulders above the backs we have. Murray's not head and shoulders above the backs we have. The numbers are simply misleading when they don't favor Dallas.

Forsett is not Murray but he is not what is on the roster now which as best unknown, I would rather put my eggs in basket on hitting on 1 of 4 than bringing in a guy like Forsett and resting everything on him.

 

[gimmesix]

Forsett is not Murray but he is not what is on the roster now which as best unknown, I would rather put my eggs in basket on hitting on 1 of 4 than bringing in a guy like Forsett and resting everything on him.

I'd rather bring in a guy who has at least shown he can do it recently, then let Williams and Randle compete to be his backup or replacement if he fails.

The only egg we added that we wouldn't have had if we signed Forsett is McFadden, and his past few seasons say there's a very good chance he is rotten.

 

[xwalker]

Yet, two years ago, he rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 10 TDs at 4.3 yards per carry. How many of the backs we have can say that. Even last year he averaged 4.8 per carry, but like with Randle, his number of carries was so low, it's hard to tell if that means anything.

Randle averaged 6.7.

 

[jrumann59]

I'd rather bring in a guy who has at least shown he can do it recently, then let Williams and Randle compete to be his backup or replacement if he fails.

The only egg we added that we wouldn't have had if we signed Forsett is McFadden, and his past few seasons say there's a very good chance he is rotten.

There is always ray rice.

 

[jobberone]

I had him scratched off the list a long time ago.

You have a list?! Nobody told me anything about a list.

I hate it when that happens.

 

[big dog cowboy]

You have a list?! Nobody told me anything about a list.

I hate it when that happens.

Just when you thought you were an insider.

 

[Picksix]

There is always ray rice.

The thing about Rice that I rarely see mentioned, is that he was declining even before the "incident." His numbers in several categories went down over his last two seasons (Attempts, Att/Game, Yds, Yds/Att, TD's, 20+ runs, etc). Now he sits out for a year. He's only 28, but I'm not sure how much he has left. Remember, he had a ridiculous number of carries when he was at Rutgers. That was one of the concerns about him coming out of college.

As for Forsett, he had a great year last year, in a ZBS system, which we run. That said, he is 29, and one great year, and that a contract year. And I'm always leery of a guy who had a significant jump in a contract year. As you say, statistics show he will likely - as they say in baseball - return to his card.

 

[jrumann59]

Sort of my point besides Murray there really was not a lot out there, Old Man gore, Old Man Jackson, CJ has been a lead back in few years. Maybe Ingram. FA had some slim pickings. I think the pal was to draft a back but they were not going to give up a lot to do it so unless Gurley or Gordon or Coleman fell where they felt they were valued they were not going to give up a lot to grab one. I think Randle if he can keep his head on can be the "lead back" get around 1000 yards while the other 2 get between 300-600 yards combined. The only back that was of interest to me would have been Moreno but he would not have been ready by TC

 

[gimmesix]

Randle averaged 6.7.

Right. On 51 carries. That's why I said it's hard to tell anything from Moreno's numbers last year. Such a small sample size can be skewed by a few breakaway runs.

It's harder to do that when you carry the ball 200-plus times because it tends to average out to more reflect the kind of back you are on every down. A 4.3-yard back carrying the ball 200 times is more likely to remain closer to that average even when you take out his longer runs.

When you take out the longer runs of a 6.7-yard back who carries the ball 51 times (38, 40 and 65 ... just three carries), he becomes a 4.3-yard back.

Now, to Moreno's credit, he didn't have a run over 15 yards in 2014 (60 was his longest in 2013), so his 4.8-yard average doesn't skew much. Also, if you look at his individual games, most of his carries came in one game (the first of the season), where he ran for 134 yards on 24 carries (5.6 avg.) and a TD against New England. He only carried once for 4 yards in the next game, then was out until Oct. 2, when he carried 6 times for 10 yards against Green Bay.

It's easier to look at his numbers and say he showed last year that he could carry a load and succeed at it in the one full game he played than it is to look at Randle's and say that. In fact, in the only game where Randle carries the ball 10 or more times, he rushed for 37 yards on 13 carries (2.8 avg.) against Indy.

 

[xwalker]

Right. On 51 carries. That's why I said it's hard to tell anything from Moreno's numbers last year. Such a small sample size can be skewed by a few breakaway runs.

It's harder to do that when you carry the ball 200-plus times because it tends to average out to more reflect the kind of back you are on every down. A 4.3-yard back carrying the ball 200 times is more likely to remain closer to that average even when you take out his longer runs.

When you take out the longer runs of a 6.7-yard back who carries the ball 51 times (38, 40 and 65 ... just three carries), he becomes a 4.3-yard back.

Now, to Moreno's credit, he didn't have a run over 15 yards in 2014 (60 was his longest in 2013), so his 4.8-yard average doesn't skew much. Also, if you look at his individual games, most of his carries came in one game (the first of the season), where he ran for 134 yards on 24 carries (5.6 avg.) and a TD against New England. He only carried once for 4 yards in the next game, then was out until Oct. 2, when he carried 6 times for 10 yards against Green Bay.

It's easier to look at his numbers and say he showed last year that he could carry a load and succeed at it in the one full game he played than it is to look at Randle's and say that. In fact, in the only game where Randle carries the ball 10 or more times, he rushed for 37 yards on 13 carries (2.8 avg.) against Indy.

Yes, small sample size makes stats irrelevant. People tried to claim that McFadden backup had a better average, but the sample size was not much bigger than Randle's.

 

[gimmesix]

Yes, small sample size makes stats irrelevant. People tried to claim that McFadden backup had a better average, but the sample size was not much bigger than Randle's.

I agree. Latavius Murray's overall average was 5.2, which looks great compared to McFadden's 3.4, but his numbers dropped, at times dramatically, when he got 10 or more carries or started.

He had 23 for 76 (3.3) against San Francisco (not listed as a starter); 12 for 59 (4.9) as a starter against Kansas City; 23 for 86 (3.7) as a starter against Buffalo; and 10 for 37 (3.7) as a starter against Denver.

 

[xwalker]

I agree. Latavius Murray's overall average was 5.2, which looks great compared to McFadden's 3.4, but his numbers dropped, at times dramatically, when he got 10 or more carries or started.

He had 23 for 76 (3.3) against San Francisco (not listed as a starter); 12 for 59 (4.9) as a starter against Kansas City; 23 for 86 (3.7) as a starter against Buffalo; and 10 for 37 (3.7) as a starter against Denver.

I'm excited to see what the Cowboys RBs can do. I'm not worried about their talent. Injury is my only concern.

 

[John813]

I watched 99% of Moreno's carries last year. Dude definitely still had some game left in him before he got injured. That Dolphins interior line did no one any favors but he did a good job finding any crack to at least gain something out of nothing.

While I'm not 100% confident in our backs, I still have a good feeling that we have good enough backs to the point we don't need to go FA hunting for another one.

 

[gimmesix]

I'm excited to see what the Cowboys RBs can do. I'm not worried about their talent. Injury is my only concern.

Injury definitely is my biggest concern, but I obviously have some talent concerns as well, especially concerning their ability to get those "dirty yards."

Some mistake that for not being excited about them. I'm excited to see if they can beat my low expectations and absolutely hope that they can. I want this running game to succeed, no matter who makes it do so. I think it's fair, though, to not expect much from those who haven't shown much.

 

[gimmesix]

I watched 99% of Moreno's carries last year. Dude definitely still had some game left in him before he got injured. That Dolphins interior line did no one any favors but he did a good job finding any crack to at least gain something out of nothing.

While I'm not 100% confident in our backs, I still have a good feeling that we have good enough backs to the point we don't need to go FA hunting for another one.

I would have preferred it if we threw a few more at the spot because we don't know exactly what we've got and we've already seen signs that the injury troubles of the past with our backs might not stay in the past.

Players like Stevan Ridley and Moreno would have been good gets for our bag o' backs instead of going after someone who hasn't done anything like Seastrunk. But we seem to prefer potential over production. Sometimes you strike it rich that way, but you usually do a whole lot more striking out.

 

[joseephuss]

I would have preferred it if we threw a few more at the spot because we don't know exactly what we've got and we've already seen signs that the injury troubles of the past with our backs might not stay in the past.

Players like Stevan Ridley and Moreno would have been good gets for our bag o' backs instead of going after someone who hasn't done anything like Seastrunk. But we seem to prefer potential over production. Sometimes you strike it rich that way, but you usually do a whole lot more striking out.

Both Ridley and Moreno had injury concerns and obviously Moreno is now out for the year. Hard to be a good get if you aren't on the field.

 

[gimmesix]

Both Ridley and Moreno had injury concerns and obviously Moreno is now out for the year. Hard to be a good get if you aren't on the field.

Tell that to McFadden and Williams. If we're going to bring in a couple with injury histories, we might as well bring in more and whoever is left standing wins.

The only players we have at RB who don't have a bad injury history are Randle and Dunbar, and that might just be because they haven't played enough.