Stephen Jones is a terrible negotiator

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I have to say that Adams post makes me feel better about the trade. Theorycrafting is one thing but an empirical basis is always preferable.

 

[BourbonBalz]

Far too many of you guys are still trying to look at the draft as an exact science. It isn't and never will be. To hell with points on a chart. Teams have to trust their scouts and coaches and make their picks based on their evaluations. Not on message board posters' desires. They obviously thought Lawrence was worth what they gave up. They might be right or they might be wrong, but people in those positions have to make those types of decisions. I know it's been said far too often, but I don't see anybody on this board on an NFL payroll. Quit *****ing and crying and see how it turns out on the field.

 

[BourbonBalz]

You draft the BPA, not for need.

Even I know that.

What if they just happen to coincide?

 

[BourbonBalz]

Sure there are other factors but one less top 100 player on the roster this year hurts qualitydepth just like it did in the Claiborne trade. It is horrendous risk management.

This isn't the stock market. It's football. Risk management? Bull crap. Draft the players you think can be productive for YOUR football team. Period.

 

[Hoofbite]

You draft the BPA, not for need.

Even I know that.

Will McClay prefers a little of both. BPA with a consideration for need.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

This isn't the stock market. It's football. Risk management? Bull crap. Draft the players you think can be productive for YOUR football team. Period.

I would say this was a good argument but it isn't.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

If you go by actual trades made in previous drafts, not hypothetical charts, we actually got the better end of the deal by a little bit. Pick 34 is worth 800 points, and picks 47 (540 points) and 78 (230 points) are worth a combined 770 points.

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2012/04/trade-fitted-draft-value-chart.html

There are many examples in recent years showing that moving up 13 spots in that part of the draft costs at least what we gave up. In 2007, for example, the Bills traded up from 43 (four spots higher than us) to 34 (same pick we got) and gave up the 74th pick (also four spots higher) to do it. They paid more to move up less for the same pick. And there are many examples of a fourth rounder, such as our 119th pick, being enough to move up only about half as far as we did.

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2012/04/history-of-trading-up-in-nfl-draft.html


The only way we could have gotten the 34th pick for our second- and fourth-round picks -- or gotten a pick back from Washington -- was if the Commanders had been willing to accept less than what many other teams have gotten in recent years.

Stephen Jones admitted that the over paid a tad for the Trade,

 

[bayeslife]

We need immediate help on the defensive line not another Max Unger scenario. No problem with the trade unfortunately that's just how it plays out sometimes.

 

[Hoofbite]

Stephen Jones admitted that the over paid a tad for the Trade,

Did he? That would be mighty interesting.

 

[Deep_South]

A point system has emerged because it's always nice to quantify anything that is subject to comparison because it makes it much easier. However, there is no denying that if Demarcus Lawrence turns out to be a stud pass rusher, we got him cheap, with the not inconsiderable bonus of the Commanders having helped facilitate the acquisition. If he is a flop, we gave too much.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Did he? That would be mighty interesting.

According to the guys on the fans he did. I know he was talking to the for a bit on air but I was busy doing stuff so I did not catch it all.

 

[BourbonBalz]

A point system has emerged because it's always nice to quantify anything that is subject to comparison because it makes it much easier. However, there is no denying that if Demarcus Lawrence turns out to be a stud pass rusher, we got him cheap, with the not inconsiderable bonus of the Commanders having helped facilitate the acquisition. If he is a flop, we gave too much.

I need to quickly search the net for a picture of that Captain Obvious character on the hotel commercials.

 

[ufcrules1]

Stephen Jones admitted that the over paid a tad for the Trade,

That means he overpaid A LOT.

 

[TheDude]

I need to quickly search the net for a picture of that Captain Obvious character on the hotel commercials.

Here ya go

 

[Deep_South]

I need to quickly search the net for a picture of that Captain Obvious character on the hotel commercials.

You know, if that point was so obvious, I'm thinking we wouldn't have had an all-day discussion of point values. The real value of a player is found in how well he plays his position in the NFL, not how many points were gained or lost in getting him off the board and into Valley Ranch, IMO. And right now, that can't be known, so we just have to wait.

ETA: In other words, I really don't like losing our 3rd round pick, but I can't say today it was wasted, because I don't really know. The proof will be in the pudding.

 

[honyock]

If you go by actual trades made in previous drafts, not hypothetical charts, we actually got the better end of the deal by a little bit. Pick 34 is worth 800 points, and picks 47 (540 points) and 78 (230 points) are worth a combined 770 points.

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2012/04/trade-fitted-draft-value-chart.html

There are many examples in recent years showing that moving up 13 spots in that part of the draft costs at least what we gave up. In 2007, for example, the Bills traded up from 43 (four spots higher than us) to 34 (same pick we got) and gave up the 74th pick (also four spots higher) to do it. They paid more to move up less for the same pick. And there are many examples of a fourth rounder, such as our 119th pick, being enough to move up only about half as far as we did.

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2012/04/history-of-trading-up-in-nfl-draft.html


The only way we could have gotten the 34th pick for our second- and fourth-round picks -- or gotten a pick back from Washington -- was if the Commanders had been willing to accept less than what many other teams have gotten in recent years.

Thanks so much for posting Adam, that's great info.

It's interesting because the old Jimmy chart basically did the same thing from what I understand, reflecting how trades had gone in the league using a few years data in the mid-late 80's. The nice thing about the one you posted is that it is obviously more current, but it has 4-5 times as much data to work with as the old chart. Very nice.

 

[Picksix]

Same with Will McClay.....unimpressed with the way things went....unable to maneuver the draft, things fell badly and the Cowboys acted unprepared...panic set in......McClay and the Jones' got schooled by real NFL FO's......

Real front offices? You mean the one that gave up 3 firsts and a second for RGIII? The one that took the picks they got from us and took Murphy and Long? We were in a bidding war with Atlanta for a player we very much wanted and needed, so the price was driven up. I don't like giving up a 3rd either, and time will tell if it was a smart move, but judging the FO based on a very limited perspective is just that...limited. There's always more to the story.

 

[Texas_Pete]

“He was the last guy we really had in terms of the right-end spot,” Stephen Jones said. “We knew we might have to give up a little more than maybe the charts read out. That happens sometimes when you want a guy and we really wanted this guy. We didn’t want to lose him. We worked through the deal. We sweetened the pot a little bit and got the deal done.”

LINK

 

[btcutter]

Real front offices? You mean the one that gave up 3 firsts and a second for RGIII? The one that took the picks they got from us and took Murphy and Long? We were in a bidding war with Atlanta for a player we very much wanted and needed, so the price was driven up. I don't like giving up a 3rd either, and time will tell if it was a smart move, but judging the FO based on a very limited perspective is just that...limited. There's always more to the story.

I keep hearing this Atlanta thing. Does someone from Atlanta confirm this or just a rumor.

 

[KB1122]

Charlotte got the looks and the brains.