Sturm Debunks Dak and Dunk

[Clarkson]

So passing the ball is not our strength then by your logic here. I agree.

Has anyone said it is..? Our strength is running the football. Has anyone, at any point, said otherwise?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Whatever. To me they are 6 points.

The rest is just gibberish that cannot be supported by numerical facts.

Dak is no more or no less a dink and dunk QB than any of the other top QB's. That's what the facts support and that's what I believe.

We have rushing TDs from 4 different sources this year. Passing TD come from one place.

Now having a QB that is a threat to run is significant but I think there is some credence to the idea that we could get other runners to score the ball which makes those score easier to get and in that sense less valuable.

 

[Miller]

There's a big difference between 2014 Romo with a legitimate team and 2011 Romo with a band of gypsies, tramps, and thieves.

Agree he had crap and saved us by himself most seasons. Again I've always been a massive defender. But he did force throws, even in good years. He did make ill timed decisions. He's even admitted that and said so in his speech recently where he mentioned maturing in the game. I don't see why...with our line, our RB, etc there is a need to force plays just to say we go downfield. And even if we wanted to I'm not swayed that Dez is a real #1 now that can be the guy to force it to. JMO. I like where we are at and not sure I can even guess what kind of Romo we'd get right now.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

If Drew Brees makes the Hall of Fame, I'm going to organize a riot.

He's a HOFer.

 

[Clove]

OK, so in that regard, they've done absolutely nothing so far.

Who?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

There are none. An argument could be made for RZ TD efficiency (since we're still 4th in overall RZ efficiency) but a 3 game stretch against some of the best pass defense in the NFL and untimely penalties has skewed it a bit.

I'd also bet, overall, we have one of the most difficult schedules against pass defenses in the league. NFCE + AFCN + NFCN.

Here's a fun stat. Against the hottest defense in the NFL the last 5 months, Dak outperformed Brees, Wilson, and Rivers. And would have quietly led this team to putting up a 40 burger on said defense if his teammates didn't rack up penalty yardage in TB territory.

With our running game, teams don't play the Saints, Seachickens, and Chargers like they have to play us. We force people into a lot more heavy boxes. It's unfortunate that we cannot capitalize on the single high DB more often.

 

[Direwolf63]

I can only speak for myself but if Dak was better throwing the ball downfield I would contend that we would have a better record than we have now. He is too easy to pigeonhole in the passing game.

The RZ % I have been linking is for the whole year. All teams play tough defenses.

In general, I would stay away from accusing others of not caring about winning. Personally, I am of the mindset of resting on your laurels and not looking for ways to improve is the fastest course to falling behind. Introspection and constructive criticism are tools of greatness.

Perhaps Dak is being coached to not take chances with the ball. Maybe want to limit negative plays. Especially since he is a ROOKIE.

Maybe he is just doing what he is being asked to do. Do you think it's possible that Linehan and Garrett don't want a rookie gunslinger?

 

[Clove]

That is, until Dak loses a playoff game or two, your blood pressure spikes again, and you turn on him too.

As for me, I am elated we have both of them.

I'm taking good meds so I'm not worried about that. Plus, if you've read any of my posts, I've always mentioned that I usually give rookies 4 years.

 

[Clarkson]

Given the lack of interceptions (one total) to bring down the rating that is remarkable.

It's hilarious you post this while calling Dak a bus driver.
Who's #6 on that list? What kind of QB would you call him?
San Francisco in the top-10.
Buffalo - top-10.
This is a poor stat for deriving any useful information on QBs.

 

[Clove]

I'm a Dak guy now. But's it's completely unfair to blame the lack of Super Bowls to Romo while he played. He's the only reason they got as close as they did in '07 and '14. Blame Jerry Jones for not putting the pieces around him to win. In fact, Jerry has said this himself more than once. Stephen too.

I'm a Dak guy now. But's it's completely unfair to blame the lack of Super Bowls to Romo while he played. He's the only reason they got as close as they did in '07 and '14. Blame Jerry Jones for not putting the pieces around him to win. In fact, Jerry has said this himself more than once. Stephen too.

Who do you blame for Danny White's lack of Super Bowls, or a million other QBs? It's all the same, no matter how you slice it, with Romo under QB, this team has not done much.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Perhaps Dak is being coached to not take chances with the ball. Maybe want to limit negative plays. Especially since he is a ROOKIE.

Maybe he is just doing what he is being asked to do. Do you think it's possible that Linehan and Garrett don't want a rookie gunslinger?

Perhaps, perhaps not. It would help to be more precise in wishcasting though. I'm sure all coaches teach risk management.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It's hilarious you post this while calling Dak a bus driver.
Who's #6 on that list? What kind of QB would you call him?
San Francisco in the top-10.
Buffalo - top-10.
This is a poor stat for deriving any useful information on QBs.

The takeaway here should be that he is performing more poorly than those guys that you are deriding here. It is not a good thing for Prescott.

All I see here is you insisting on your emotional characterization and blanket dismissing data.

Buffalo does a much better capitalizing on their dominant run game in the red zone.

 

[sean10mm]

Having to defend against the threat of QB runs is highly relevant, because it affects how the defense has to play the game - what overages they can run, if they have to assign a spy to the QB in certain down and distance situations, and so on. It's not the most important thing a QB does but it's far from irrelevant if they're good at it.

To address something raised earlier: any stat based on averages is going to have the possibility of being skewed by a weird distribution, like "only completes 50 yard bombs and misses everything short" or "completes 100% of short passes but misses all deep ones," but there is no evidence that this is actually the case with Dak. It's just being assumed by people who have weird and unrealistic expectations of what good QB play actually looks like in 2016.

And here's the thing: all of Dak's efficiency stats are favorable. ALL OF THEM. It's not like he's got a YPA of 5 and a passer rating of 100. There isn't any one thing skewing the numbers because all the numbers are positive. People calling him Alex Smith have apparently never watched Smith play, because Dak's rookie year is better than any season Alex Smith ever had, by miles. And just by the eye test, Alex Smith has a wet noodle arm compared to Dak.

 

[JJHLH1]

He was 3-1 though in 2015. 16-5 the past two years. 5-0 against New York.

I don't know if he can stay healthy, but if he could, he would stretch out the defenses for everybody and finish drives.

Dak is just awful in the red zone.

Romo threw 5 TD's vs 7 INT's in the 4 games he played in 2015 and had a QB rating of 79.4 that year. That's bad QB play and can't be spun otherwise.

Please give us some stats to support your assertion that Dak is awful in the red zone. It's hard to be 12-2 if that were the case.

 

[Sturm1310]

Again, rushing TDs for QBs are irrelevant. There is almost zero utility in them unless you are running an option style offense. The ability to throw an occasional 35 yard touchdown pass, however, is extremely valuable. It prevents your team from having to settle for field goals or grind out a long drive with flag-happy refs watching and potential turnovers looming. And it's completely missing from our dink and dunk attack.

This is absolute ridiculous talk. You don't see utility in a QB who runs on 3rd down and moves the chains when nobody is open? Seriously? And how would 3rd down conversions on foot differ from Touchdowns on foot? Zero utility?

I can't believe people who love this sport are this blinded by nonsense. No offense. You clearly aren't alone.

 

[AbeBeta]

Only if you don't care about accuracy.

Dak's yards per completion in the first half of the Eagles game was outstanding.

Accuracy is important. But the issue being addressed is whether he threw downfield or not. More accurate passers will have higher YPA.

The statistics Sturm present don't address the claim he's trying to debunk.

 

[SDCowboy]

This thread has been derailed into more differing subjects than I think I've ever seen in another derailing.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Dak isnt a dink and dunker nor a bus driver.

The 2nd Washington game, Pittsburgh game, Ravens game, and Philly game show he is capable of putting the team on his back when needed and making clutch throws.

Who cares if he isnt throwing for 3Tds a game. Troy didnt throw for 3TDs routinely and he got us 3 rings

 

[Sturm1310]

Accuracy is important. But the issue being addressed is whether he threw downfield or not. More accurate passers will have higher YPA.

The statistics Sturm present don't address the claim he's trying to debunk.

 

[phildadon86]

In that he takes what defenses give, yea. Dak is good in that regard, except there are times where defenses "give" single coverage deep and he doesn't exploit that. That's what separates Brady from basically everybody else.

So we are now comparing Brady to a first year rookie? Makes sense