Sturm Debunks Dak and Dunk

[Direwolf63]

Perhaps, perhaps not. It would help to be more precise in wishcasting though. I'm sure all coaches teach risk management.

I'm not in those QB meetings. But I would bet my mortgage Dak is being told not to take unnecessary chances. Repeatedly. And he is doing better than most in this regard. And I will take the lack of negative plays by Prescott and the 12-2 record and be quite happy with it.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

Romo threw 5 TD's vs 7 INT's in the 4 games he played in 2015 and had a QB rating of 79.4 that year. That's bad QB play and can't be spun otherwise.

Please give us some stats to support your assertion that Dak is awful in the red zone. It's hard to be 12-2 if that were the case.

Tony was 3-1 though. See if Tony's involved wins matter but they want to dismiss Dak's contribution to the 12-2 record.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

This thread has been derailed into more differing subjects than I think I've ever seen in another derailing.

I've never seen this much complaining in a fanbase over a team with a 12-2 record. You'd think we were the Cleveland Browns. lol.

 

[haleyrules]

So?

Steve Young and Joe Montana made their bones using short slants that Rice and Taylor would take to the house.

Yep. Prescott's long ball game will improve as he gains experience and confidence. This improbably Pro Bowler is 14 games out of College ball.

 

[Doomsday101]

This thread has been derailed into more differing subjects than I think I've ever seen in another derailing.

Just as all threads having to do with Dak. You have those who don't believe in Dak and want to Romo in, you have those who just want Romo in and then those who are solid behind Dak. I have supported Tony and should he be forced into action I will be pulling for him as much as I always have but for me the bottom line is the organization has made the change and I will support that choice. I can't promise he will take us to the SB but in all fairness I can't say Tony will either. There is no record in post season that suggest he will get us there so anyone claiming he will is guessing as much as those who think Dak can get it done

 

[Super_Kazuya]

This is absolute ridiculous talk. You don't see utility in a QB who runs on 3rd down and moves the chains when nobody is open? Seriously? And how would 3rd down conversions on foot differ from Touchdowns on foot? Zero utility?

I can't believe people who love this sport are this blinded by nonsense. No offense. You clearly aren't alone.

Perhaps I was not clear Bob, I did not say that there isn't any utility in the ability itself. Of course there is. I am saying when evaluating QBs, to me it is irrelevant to say, Drew Brees has 34 TDs, well Dak has 20 TDs but he has 6 rushing TDs, so he has 26 TDs. The Saints do not care that Drew Brees can't go and get a one yard QB TD draw on 1st down. They have running backs for that. Meanwhile, I do very much care that Dak can't throw the ball into coverage with zero help from a running game like Brees can. There is much utility in Brees passing TDs and very little in Dak's rushing TDs. I was not making any kind of reference to moving the chains on third down or anything like that. Plenty of value there.

 

[percyhoward]

The statistics Sturm present don't address the claim he's trying to debunk.

That's right, they don't. It's better to start with YPA, then separate the air yards from the YAC. Or if you don't care about the result of the play, you can just count his short pass attempts and compare that to other QB.

Either way, it's debunked.

 

[Doomsday101]

I've never seen this much complaining in a fanbase over a team with a 12-2 record. You'd think we were the Cleveland Browns. lol.

That is what blows me away, some here are talking as if this is a 2-12 team not a 12-2 team. Each week people would throw up a test this will be the game that test Dak and each week the Cowboys walk out with the win but now that test does not count. lol Never have seen anything like this.

 

[sean10mm]

Dak's % of air yards is better than (deep breath): Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Russel Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Tom Brady, and Eli Manning.

I think the definition of "dink and dunker" is being stretched beyond all recognition by the Dak skeptics here.

 

[Clove]

This is the type of QB Dak is.

He is a win first QB. If it means, throw down field, put up yardage, that's what he'll do. If it means, handing the ball off all game long, he'll do it. If it means, he has to score to win the game, he'll do it. The guy simply does not care about stats. He cares about moving the ball down the field and into the end zone. When he's inside the 5, it's guaranteed and this is why smart people love him. He just does whatever it takes to win, nothing more, nothing less.

 

[haleyrules]

I've never seen this much complaining in a fanbase over a team with a 12-2 record. You'd think we were the Cleveland Browns. lol.

lol. Its simple emotionalism. This will pass in a very short time after Prescott does something good in the playoffs. I sincerly expect him to carry the club to the Conference Championship this year. That will change a lot of peoples feelings about the QB situation.

 

[kevm3]

That's funny how we're cherry picking Dak's last few performances against extremely tough defenses, but then comparing that to Romo in 2014. How about we bring up what happened in 2015 against tough defenses. Knocked out against Philly. Played ok against Miami... didn't see the 400 mythical yards that Romo is supposed to be a regular at throwing. More like 227 yards. Played against Carolina, threw several interceptions and got injured. Played against Seattle in the preseason, got injured again. So where is this recent trend of Romo throwing nonstop bombs against tough defenses?

 

[Clarkson]

The takeaway here should be that he is performing more poorly than those guys that you are deriding here. It is not a good thing for Prescott.

All I see here is you insisting on your emotional characterization and blanket dismissing data.

Buffalo does a much better capitalizing on their dominant run game in the red zone.

See, I think you're using a small sample size of data to try and make your argument, when it works more against you than for you. A better QB rating in the red zone, especially over one season of data, means little. Five throws can change those numbers quickly.

It's like batting average in baseball. There's little difference between a .300 hitter and a .280 hitter. Over 600 ABs, that's only 10 hits.
What those numbers you posted tells me is that there's little difference between QBs in the red zone. Do you think those numbers mean that Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick are better in the red zone than Prescott? Those numbers alone mean very little. I mean, Bradford can throw 3 5-yard passes in the red zone and have a good QB rating before the team kicks a field goal.

You clearly fancy yourself highly intelligent, so you should know that posting those numbers as any kind of strong evidence of something is nothing other than a joke.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm not in those QB meetings. But I would bet my mortgage Dak is being told not to take unnecessary chances. Repeatedly. And he is doing better than most in this regard. And I will take the lack of negative plays by Prescott and the 12-2 record and be quite happy with it.

I agree you are not there and have no way of knowing. This line of thought makes me think of the Linehan press sessions and the stupid questions that are typically asked.

I do expect that all teams teach their QBs risk management and I am equally confident that no coaching staff even the most conservative tell their players to take 'no risks.'

The issues that I see Dak having are the sort where he needs to sit down and review all his prior game film and go onto the practice field and drill mechanics. Right now he is watching opponent game film and absorbing the weekly game plan.

Given that, the bye week could potentially be huge but in the week to week grind they just don't have the time to get it all in.

 

[haleyrules]

Dak's % of air yards is better than (deep breath): Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Russel Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Tom Brady, and Eli Manning.

I think the definition of "dink and dunker" is being stretched beyond all recognition by the Dak skeptics here.

Prescott is a complete QB..coming straight out of College he only needs experience.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

lol. Its simple emotionalism. This will pass in a very short time after Prescott does something good in the playoffs. I sincerly expect him to carry the club to the Conference Championship this year. That will change a lot of peoples feelings about the QB situation.

I'm sure glad the internet wasn't around when we started that 90's playoff run. There would have been a lot of complaining about Aikman and wearing Emmitt out. lol

 

[gmoney112]

With our running game, teams don't play the Saints, Seachickens, and Chargers like they have to play us. We force people into a lot more heavy boxes. It's unfortunate that we cannot capitalize on the single high DB more often.

One of the most important tools of greatness is managing expectations. If the greatest negative about a rookie QB, that's one of the most efficient passers in the league, and I'd debate is actually quite a bit better than a busdriver (Try to find a QB within a yard of Dak's AYPA that's considered a busdriver), who is 3rd in the league in AYPA, and doesn't turn the ball over, is that he doesn't make enough plays 25+ yards downfield, then i'd say people probably aren't managing expectations.

I've seen Tom Brady go out and play games where half his passes are 3-5 yard pick routes, and everyone's slobbering all over him because he "won".

Not enough plays 25+ yards != dink and dunk. Look at Bradford, Wentz, Smith, none of them are even close to Dak's AYPA.

And I think everyone can agree that lack of "big plays" has led to his low INT number. How many of these games would we have lost if he threw an extra one? Would we be 12-2 right now if he threw 2-3 more picks this year trying to force the ball downfield? I'll take what's a given, and that's the most efficient offense in the league. Anything else is pure speculation.

And for all this love about the OL, which they deserve, and say "Dak's getting all this from the OL", then people need to start also acknowledging their RZ or TB area penalties against TB and Minn. Tyron hooked a guy on a TD pass which looked like an incredibly lazy attempt that you don't see often, but it absolutely was and i'm sure he'd tell you the same. But still, we came out 2-1 and just absolutely dominated the hottest defense in the league.

 

[Doomsday101]

Perhaps I was not clear Bob, I did not say that there isn't any utility in the ability itself. Of course there is. I am saying when evaluating QBs, to me it is irrelevant to say, Drew Brees has 34 TDs, well Dak has 20 TDs but he has 6 rushing TDs, so he has 26 TDs. The Saints do not care that Drew Brees can't go and get a one yard QB draw on 1st down. They have running backs for that. Meanwhile, I do very much care that Dak can't throw the ball into coverage with zero help from a running game like Brees can. There is much utility in Brees passing TDs and very little in Dak's rushing TDs. I was not making any kind of reference to moving the chains on third down or anything like that. Plenty of value there.

Dak is not Brees, Drew Brees does not have that skill, he is a great passer I don't think anyone would question that but in the end when you are down in the redzone the object is to put the ball in the endzone. Dak has that ability be it with his arm or legs. Why force a ball into a tight window with the chance of it getting picked, batted into the air, throwing incomplete as opposed to using the ability to run it in. It counts the same it is still 6 points and again it was the object to put the ball into the endzone. If you want to claim Brees, Romo, Rodgers or anyone else are better passers I will not disagree but for me in the end did you put it in the endzone did the team walk away with 6 points? Cowboys being 4th in the NFL in scoring indicates they are not having problems putting up points.

 

[Future]

So we are now comparing Brady to a first year rookie? Makes sense

I'm just responding to someone else doing it.

It's a valid comparison, in terms of playing style, anyways.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

See, I think you're using a small sample size of data to try and make your argument, when it works more against you than for you. A better QB rating in the red zone, especially over one season of data, means little. Five throws can change those numbers quickly.

It's like batting average in baseball. There's little difference between a .300 hitter and a .280 hitter. Over 600 ABs, that's only 10 hits.
What those numbers you posted tells me is that there's little difference between QBs in the red zone. Do you think those numbers mean that Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick are better in the red zone than Prescott? Those numbers alone mean very little. I mean, Bradford can throw 3 5-yard passes in the red zone and have a good QB rating before the team kicks a field goal.

You clearly fancy yourself highly intelligent, so you should know that posting those numbers as any kind of strong evidence of something is nothing other than a joke.

10 hits is a discrete number of runs generated. The point differential in baseball are miniscule compared to most sports. In building a 25 and 40 man roster those differences are the difference between making the playoffs and not.

Kaepernick is better in the RZ than Prescott. I'm not going to waste my time basing overarching generalizations on that. It does impact our ability to score nonetheless which is the central argument of this thread besides dink and dunk.