Sturm Debunks Dak and Dunk

[drawandstrike]

Did I miss the name, but where was tom Brady on that list.

I just asked him that. He responded:

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Don't think this is accurate. YPA is total yards divided by total attempted passes.

Negative

 

[bayeslife]

The gameplan that works against him is to flood those intermediate zones and pressure him with zone blitzes.

Good corners and safeties give him fits.

Good corners and safeties give a QB fits? You don't say.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Yet to date the only team to execute that game plan to perfection is the New York Giants, who just so happen to have been able to do it to a number of other QBs as well.

Aaron Rodgers completed 51 percent of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt and tossed two interceptions against the Giants this season. His QB Rating was 65 (lowest of the season).

Their excellence in the secondary can make it tough on anyone.

Eagles were the first to do it. The Vikings actually perfected it first but they could generate no offense to capitalize. Eagles were the first I recall employing it.

DC's are still formulating it and now have the book. Making matters worse is that most of the teams that have the horses to pull it off are in the NFC. Seattle is also a concern.

 

[percyhoward]

I don't think this really proves anything because it doesn't determine who is throwing downfield and checking down vs. who is consistently throwing 8 yard passes.

But you don't give a QB credit for merely throwing deep passes that are incomplete. YPA tells you who consistently gets the most yards per attempt, whether they be air yards or YAC. You start with YPA. There's no argument there.

The only argument is how much of it is through the air. Air Yards per Attempt tells you.

 

[Future]

Then do the math to support your position.

Someone has posted math...

I did a whole crap ton of math about YPA, which is what the thread was originally about.

The only way to prove who is a "downfield quarterback" and who isn't is to take YPA and YAC out of the equation and note the amount of yards a pass travels in the air, regardless of if it is completed or not. That data doesn't exist, to my knowledge, and even then, situational football would cause so many variables that it would still probably fall short. Matt Ryan has to throw down the field because his defense sucks. Dak doesn't have to.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It will improve with time. He's only a rookie.Calm your tits.

Maybe; maybe not. If you need to feign certainty to maintain composure that is your issue. I have no such problems.

 

[LandryFan]

Don't think this is accurate. YPA is total yards divided by total attempted passes.

You are correct.

 

[drawandstrike]

Eagles were the first to do it. The Vikings actually perfected it first but they could generate no offense to capitalize. Eagles were the first I recall employing it.

DC's are still formulating it and now have the book. Making matters worse is that most of the teams that have the horses to pull it off are in the NFC. Seattle is also a concern.

You can bet the Bucs have that book, attempted to do the same thing the Giants did, and yet Dak still turned in a masterful 32/36 performance with no turnovers from him either tossing a pick or fumbling the ball.

Linehan and Garrett are working hard to give Dak the answers. We were in a tight game Sunday night against a pretty good defense and yet as has been noted, Dak didn't misfire on a single throw he chose to make in the 2nd half.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Doesn't surprise me. I remember Romo checking down to Witten a few yards short of first down just to punt, constantly.

People act like we had the #1 offense under Romo the entire time he was QB. In reality, the offense was a liability in many situations. Especially in the red zone.

Revising history a little there don't ya think?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Good corners and safeties give a QB fits? You don't say.

More so than other top QBs because of his issues anticipating throws and throwing people open.

He does a good job finding open receivers and is remarkable beating the blitz as a result. Coverage is what dismantles him.

You rush a bunch of people at him and at worst he escapes upfield. Play good coverage and he doesn't trust his eyes, starts feeling ghosts, and generally gets the yips.

 

[Texas_Pete]

I don't really worry about errant throws down field. They are a lower percentage past to begin with for any quarterback. What worries me is just missing reads. How many times this season has he missed seeing a wide-open receiver? In some instances, it could have been a TD. I'm sure he will improve, both in downfield accuracy and in making those correct reads, as he gains experience. The key is going to be how much he improves.

I hear what you are saying, but all QBs miss open receivers. Depending on the game situation, he may not have enough time to see Dez breaking open 20 yards downfield because he had been under duress for several plays prior. He might not trust the mental clock in his head if he believes he is about to get sacked. He'll improve as he gains more experience and we'll see less of what you described.

 

[bayeslife]

The arguments against Dak are getting silly now.

"He doesn't even throw downfield every play!"

"He has trouble against top 3 defenses!"

 

[Future]

But you don't give a QB credit for merely throwing deep passes that are incomplete. YPA tells you who consistently gets the most yards per attempt, whether they be air yards or YAC. You start with YPA. There's no argument there.

The only argument is how much of it is through the air. Air Yards per Attempt tells you.

When we're talking about whether or not a guy is dinking and dunking you do. There is a very distinct difference between a quarterback who has a 55% completion rate but attempts 5 passes of more than 40 yards per game and a guy who completes 75% but only goes down the field once. The second guy might very well have better numbers, but it doesn't mean he's not a dink and dunk QB.

And Air Yards per attempt doesn't prove that because it does not account for variance. A guy who throws the ball 6-8 yards every play is going to have a similar number to a guy who alternates between 20 and 1. Using two QBs

A) 10 for 10, for 80 yards, 0 YAC and an AYA of 8.
B) 2 for 10, for 80 yards, 0 YAC and an AYA of 8.

Those are two very different quarterbacks. Player A is probably the more successful, but Player B is the down the field QB.

 

[ringmaster]

There seems to be a lot of fans that want the QB throwing bombs regularly.

I would rather have a QB who takes what the defense gives him instead of him forcing the ball into double and sometimes triple coverage and you're right about how some fans want the QB throwing deep balls all game just to prove his worth in this league. The Cowboys' passing game doesn't ask their QB to throw deep passes regularly because they have some (YAC) WRs in Beasley, Bryant, Williams, and Elliott who can take a 5yd drag route and turn it to a 60yd TD so there is nothing wrong with what Dak is doing in the passing game because of how patient he is with the football and forcing the deeper throws a lot can get a QB into trouble just ask Jameis Winston who threw 3Ints this past Sunday because he's not very patient with the football and that is what seperates him from Dak.

 

[Texas_Pete]

Eagles were the first to do it. The Vikings actually perfected it first but they could generate no offense to capitalize. Eagles were the first I recall employing it.

DC's are still formulating it and now have the book. Making matters worse is that most of the teams that have the horses to pull it off are in the NFC. Seattle is also a concern.

Seattle will be exposed without Earl Thomas. Book it.

 

[LandryFan]

This is amazing. Our team is 12-2 and we're all here trying to prove either that Dak can't throw downfield or that he's among the leaders of NFL history in YPA.

Who cares? This team has been kicking tail all year. I don't care how they do it, they are winning.

I trust the coaches know just how to cater to Dak's strengths and minimize his weaknesses. If something goes awry, they will make a change in game plan.

On the nose! We have a good TEAM, and that matters more than any of this other stuff.

 

[erod]

I just asked him that. He responded:

All you need to know about YPA.

 

[BrassCowboy]

Wow all this thread really proves is how much better off we will be when we cut Romo this off season. No fault of Romo, just economics.

This seems like a lot of the argument when Romo was in his early years except it was ints and not very clutch with him. Funny how patient people were with him and he wasn't even a rookie at that.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You can bet the Bucs have that book, attempted to do the same thing the Giants did, and yet Dak still turned in a masterful 32/36 performance with no turnovers from him either tossing a pick or fumbling the ball.

Linehan and Garrett are working hard to give Dak the answers. We were in a tight game Sunday night against a pretty good defense and yet as has been noted, Dak didn't misfire on a single throw he chose to make in the 2nd half.

Grimes and VG3 are only okay and their S are spares. I was unimpressed with their LB in zone coverage. Linehan's multiple route depths had them guessing.

Giants are our perfect foil because they also have those monster DT that take away Zeke's cutbacks and thus big plays too.