Sturm Debunks Dak and Dunk

[Direwolf63]

I seem to remember some dink and dunk bum named Joe Montana winning multiple Super Bowls all the while wasting all his chances to throw the ball downfield.

I think we should start a petition to revoke his Hall of Fame induction.

 

[percyhoward]

The only way to prove who is a "downfield quarterback" and who isn't is to take YPA and YAC out of the equation and note the amount of yards a pass travels in the air, regardless of if it is completed or not.

That's called Average Depth of Target (aDOT), and it's useful for telling you what a QB is trying to do, whether or not it's successful.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I did a whole crap ton of math about YPA, which is what the thread was originally about.

The only way to prove who is a "downfield quarterback" and who isn't is to take YPA and YAC out of the equation and note the amount of yards a pass travels in the air, regardless of if it is completed or not. That data doesn't exist, to my knowledge, and even then, situational football would cause so many variables that it would still probably fall short. Matt Ryan has to throw down the field because his defense sucks. Dak doesn't have to.

Then it's inconclusive.

 

[dallasfan4lizife]

Maybe; maybe not. If you need to feign certainty to maintain composure that is your issue. I have no such problems.

I don't feel like having confidence that our rookie QB improves is an issue. Time will tell all.

 

[bayeslife]

More so than other top QBs because of his issues anticipating throws and throwing people open.

He does a good job finding open receivers and is remarkable beating the blitz as a result. Coverage is what dismantles him.

You rush a bunch of people at him and at worst he escapes upfield. Play good coverage and he doesn't trust his eyes, starts feeling ghosts, and generally gets the yips.

Hey I can fully see the issues he has against top defenses but again I think were glossing over the fact that he isn't alone in that regard.

Stafford had a horrible game against he Giants and he's regarded as having an MVP year

 

[LatinMind]

You can be a dink and dunk QB and have a high YPA if you're completing a high % of your passes. In games where he has a low completion percentage, he's got a bad YPA.

Comp % YPA
45.95 4.46
48.72 7.36
55.56 5.04
66.67 9.15
66.67 8.83
68.75 9.97
70.83 8.13
71.88 7.66
73.33 9.73
79.17 10.33
75.00 9.46
75.00 8.36
77.78 9.15
88.89 7.75

The three games with the lowest completion percentage is also his lowest YPA which suggests that he's not making big plays down the field to compensate for the high volume of shorter completions. Then you've also got instances like the Pitt game (68.75 and 9.97) that is drastically inflated by an 83 yard screen. End of the day it looks like he's pushing the ball downfield, but without that pass, he's got 31 attempts for 236 yards, which is only a 7.6 ypa. Still strong, but not great.

This isn't necessarily exclusive for Dak, as there's almost always a relationship between Completion % and YPA. However, the three low totals are far more indicative of whether or not Dak, or any other quarterback, is pushing the ball down the field. At the end of the day, YPA does nothing to prove that he's a downfield QB. If anything, it shows that when the consistent 6-10 yard passes are there, that's when he's hitting those higher YPAs. His numbers plummet without them because he isn't getting chunks to compensate.

Honestly, it's odd to me that people still can't recognize how limited Dak's vision down the field is. He does not see past the safeties at all.

How can he see past the safeties when Dallas isnt the type of team who is going deep alot? Dallas is a intermediate passing team. Has been even with Romo.

 

[Future]

That's called Average Depth of Target (aDOT), and it's useful for telling you what a QB is trying to do, whether or not it's successful.

But what he is trying to do is exactly what we're talking about here. Dak is trying to be safe with the football and not push the ball downfield. When we're categorizing QBs as dink and dunk, down the field, gunslinger, game manager, etc., we're talking about what they are trying to do.

But even then, using that number exclusively does not count for game situations. A QB who is consistently trailing, you'd have to think, would have a higher aDOT than a guy with a good defense playing with a lead.

Then it's inconclusive.

That's my point lol

 

[erod]

Then do the math to support your position.

Someone has posted math...

Here's some math.

Dak is averaging 0.75 touchdown passes and 194 yards passing in the past four games.

Dallas' offense drove for one TD against Minnesota, one TD against New York, and one TD against Tampa.

 

[NEODOG]

Let's ***** about being 12-2

 

[dallasfan4lizife]

Revising history a little there don't ya think?

Our defense was a liability quite a bit as well. The 2012 and 2013 seasons were horrible.

However, it takes more then one side of the ball failing to produce 2 playoff wins in 20 years.

 

[ThreeandOut]

The arguments against Dak are getting silly now.

"He doesn't even throw downfield every play!"

"He has trouble against top 3 defenses!"

The Dak haters are like those Japanese soldiers they used to find on deserted islands years after WWII had ended that were convinced the war was still being fought.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I did a whole crap ton of math about YPA, which is what the thread was originally about.

The only way to prove who is a "downfield quarterback" and who isn't is to take YPA and YAC out of the equation and note the amount of yards a pass travels in the air, regardless of if it is completed or not. That data doesn't exist, to my knowledge, and even then, situational football would cause so many variables that it would still probably fall short. Matt Ryan has to throw down the field because his defense sucks. Dak doesn't have to.

According to his splits, Dak has 262 throws 10 yards or less, 118 in the intermediate 10 to 30 yards, and 13 throws downfield more than 30 yards.

He used to actually throw it downfield more earlier in the season but stopped except for that ill advised throw into double coverage against the Giants.

Now you would need to normalize it because most QBs throw it short but the lack of deep attempts is glaring and stands on its own.

 

[JJHLH1]

Eagles were the first to do it. The Vikings actually perfected it first but they could generate no offense to capitalize. Eagles were the first I recall employing it.

DC's are still formulating it and now have the book. Making matters worse is that most of the teams that have the horses to pull it off are in the NFC. Seattle is also a concern.

Tampa couldn't do it and they have one of the best defenses in the league. Dak picked them apart all night.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The Dak haters are like those Japanese soldiers they used to find on deserted islands years after WWII had ended that were convinced the war was still being fought.

Sure pretend like the Giants and Vikings games didn't happen. I'm sure that works.

 

[NorthTexan95]

But what he is trying to do is exactly what we're talking about here. Dak is trying to be safe with the football and not push the ball downfield. When we're categorizing QBs as dink and dunk, down the field, gunslinger, game manager, etc., we're talking about what they are trying to do.

But even then, using that number exclusively does not count for game situations. A QB who is consistently trailing, you'd have to think, would have a higher aDOT than a guy with a good defense playing with a lead.

That's my point lol

Sound A LOT like a certain NFL quarterback up in the Boston area.

 

[Future]

How can he see past the safeties when Dallas isnt the type of team who is going deep alot? Dallas is a intermediate passing team. Has been even with Romo.

I know we don't. Tony still completed a ton of long passes in 2014 because he almost always went there when it was available. He had a Y/A of 8.5 and 49 completions of 20 or more yards. Dez alone had 9 catches of 30+

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Tampa couldn't do it and they have one of the best defenses in the league. Dak picked them apart all night.

Wholistic analysis is always lacking. Their corners and S are not the best in the league.

Speed and speed to power players also don't work against our interior OL. They get mauled.

The NFL is about matchups not aggregate stats.

 

[LandryFan]

Negative

Don't know what this will look like formatting-wise when I post it, but this chart, as do all others, clearly shows that YPA is total passing yards/total attempts:

RK PLAYER TEAM COMP ATT YDS YDS/A
1 Matt Ryan, QB ATL 319 465 4,336 9.33
2 Tom Brady, QB NE 249 372 3,064 8.24
3 Kirk Cousins, QB WSH 366 542 4,360 8.04
4 Dak Prescott, QB DAL 292 431 3,418 7.93

 

[Clove]

The bottom line is, if Dak starts slinging the ball down field, then they'll talk about he's not scoring enough. If he starts posting 38 point games, then he doesn't scramble fast enough, if he starts getting out of trouble, then he takes unnecessary sacks. It will NEVER be enough for the Romo crowd.

 

[Future]

Sound A LOT like a certain NFL quarterback up in the Boston area.

In that he takes what defenses give, yea. Dak is good in that regard, except there are times where defenses "give" single coverage deep and he doesn't exploit that. That's what separates Brady from basically everybody else.