The defense will be better with Zeke

[AdamJT13]

there are exceptions, of course. And sometimes, it's just the opposite.

There are just about as many "exceptions" and "opposites" as there are not. That's why the correlation is so low -- running well doesn't lead to passing well, and vice versa.

The passing game opens up the run game.

Again, "the passing game opens up the run game" isn't exactly true, either. It's a theoretical statement that just doesn't hold true on the field.

If either one was true, a significant correlation would show up on the field, but it doesn't.

2015 is a great example of what happens when the passing game gets shut down

We were fifth in the NFL in YPC and ninth in the NFL in rushing DVOA -- despite being 30th in passer rating and 32nd in passing DVOA.

 

[bsheeern]

What I have stated repeatedly is that the success of the running game, generally speaking, has very little effect on whether you win or lose. Whatever effects the running game has on the passing game can be had no matter how well or how poorly you run the ball. All of that is borne out by the facts.

Last year in the NFL, the team that passed the ball better won 78.9 percent of the time, and it made almost no difference whether they ran the ball better than their opponent (79.9 percent wins) or ran the ball worse than their opponent (77.9 percent wins).

Teams that did NOT pass better than their opponent won 21.1 percent of the time, and it made almost no difference whether they ran the ball better than their opponent (22.1 percent wins) or ran the ball worse than their opponent (20.1 percent wins).

Overall, teams than ran better than their opponent won 52.3 percent of the time. Teams that ran worse than their opponent won 47.7 percent of the time.

Obviously, running better than your opponent has very little effect on whether you win or lose. To say otherwise is ludicrous.

And all of these numbers have been consistent throughout the league, every season and for every team, for the past several decades.

Define "Ran the Ball Better"

 

[bsheeern]

There are just about as many "exceptions" and "opposites" as there are not. That's why the correlation is so low -- running well doesn't lead to passing well, and vice versa.




Again, "the passing game opens up the run game" isn't exactly true, either. It's a theoretical statement that just doesn't hold true on the field.

If either one was true, a significant correlation would show up on the field, but it doesn't.




We were fifth in the NFL in YPC and ninth in the NFL in rushing DVOA -- despite being 30th in passer rating and 32nd in passing DVOA.

No it shows up on the field. It might not show up in a STAT that you can read, but NFL coaches have said Thousands of times that it does. I can show you things in Film that you don't have stats for.

 

[bsheeern]

We were fifth in the NFL in YPC and ninth in the NFL in rushing DVOA -- despite being 30th in passer rating and 32nd in passing DVOA.

Those are Rankings. Not cause and effect numbers. Huge difference

 

[jnday]

This thread has went around and around , but when the season starts, Zeke and the oline will prove just how important they are to Romo, the offense and the defense. 2014 should have opened some eyes, but some posters have eyes and are still blind.

 

[kevm3]

If Zeke plays to his potential, that will help solve a lot of the 'closing the game' problems we had last year. Instead of constantly putting the defense on the field at the end of games and expecting them to make a stop, we'll be converting 3rd downs, taking that clock to zero.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

The Cowboys ignored it and didn't use the injuries to Romo and Dez as an excuse for why the running game wasn't more efficient which is why they drafted Zeke. They saw like everyone else that the running game averaged under 4.0 a carry the first 2 weeks WITH Romo. There's no excuse for your lead back who had a career high in carries and who was playing behind the best OL in the entire league to only score 3 rushing TD's. There's no excuse for a team that has the best OL in the game to be worst team in the league on 3rd and one.

If you told the McFadden supporters that he would only score 3 total TD's with a combined 279 touches rushing and receiving they wouldn't have believed it. Despite Murray having 42 less touches in Philly in 2015 he scored more than twice as many TD's as McFadden and had a longer run from scrimmage that he scored on. According to the McFadden supporters he was suppose to give us longer runs than Murray because most were stuck in the past with him from 8 years ago when he had blazing speed.

Our OL was intact all season having 3 pro bowlers and what McFadden produced last season any average back could have produced behind our OL. Adrian Peterson put up almost 2100 yards a few years ago despite a bad QB situation and no Dez Bryant at WR. There's been teams in the past that didn't have as good an OL as the Cowboys had in 2015 and didn't have as good a QB as Tony Romo or a WR as good as Dez Bryant but they still had a great rushing game due to having a great back because the back matters.

Adrian Peterson might go down as the greatest rb of all time.

If your pick in the draft has to match him for it to be justified.... You dun goofed.

 

[percyhoward]

If Zeke plays to his potential, that will help solve a lot of the 'closing the game' problems we had last year. Instead of constantly putting the defense on the field at the end of games and expecting them to make a stop, we'll be converting 3rd downs, taking that clock to zero.

We didn't have any problem keeping the defense off the field in the 4th quarter last year. In fact, our offense was one of the league's best at doing that.

Dallas offense average time of 4th-qtr possession (NFL rank)
2015 2:35 (3rd)
2014 2:24 (12th)

Dallas offensive plays per 4th-qtr possession (NFL rank)
2015 6.2 (7th)
2014 5.3 (26th)

The problem was that when the defense was on the field, it couldn't stop anybody.
Dallas defense points allowed per 4th-qtr possession (NFL rank)
2015 2.45 (26th)
2014 2.29 (29th)

If you didn't notice above, the defense couldn't stop anybody in the 4th quarter the previous year either, but that doesn't matter as much when your offense can score and you have a comfortable lead by the 4th quarter.
Dallas offense points per drive, 1st-3rd qtr (NFL rank)
2015 1.42 (27th)
2014 2.67 (4th)

Elliott helps the defense to the extent that he helps the offense score points. His ability to do that will depend partly on how much better he can be than Murray was in 2014, and partly on Romo's health.

 

[BAT]

We didn't have any problem keeping the defense off the field in the 4th quarter last year. In fact, our offense was one of the league's best at doing that.

Dallas offense average time of 4th-qtr possession (NFL rank)
2015 2:35 (3rd)
2014 2:24 (12th)

Dallas offensive plays per 4th-qtr possession (NFL rank)
2015 6.2 (7th)
2014 5.3 (26th)

Great stuff Percy! Just an added observation, the data above does not take into account that the Cowboys were usually playing from behind by the 4th quarter in 2015 vs. 2014 usually playing with a lead. Opposing defenses are usually checked out by then playing back ups and/or prevent.

 

[percyhoward]

Great stuff Percy! Just an added observation, the data above does not take into account that the Cowboys were usually playing from behind by the 4th quarter in 2015 vs. 2014 usually playing with a lead. Opposing defenses are usually checked out by then playing back ups and/or prevent.

Not a factor. In fact, the 12 possessions we had when trailing by 9+ points in the 4th actually hurt our average.

time of average 4th-qtr possession
trailing by > one score: 2:33 (6th)
all other possessions: 2:40 (4th)

 

[bsheeern]

Great stuff Percy! Just an added observation, the data above does not take into account that the Cowboys were usually playing from behind by the 4th quarter in 2015 vs. 2014 usually playing with a lead. Opposing defenses are usually checked out by then playing back ups and/or prevent.

Great point Bat

 

[bsheeern]

Not a factor. In fact, the 12 possessions we had when trailing by 9+ points in the 4th actually hurt our average.

time of average 4th-qtr possession
trailing by > one score: 2:33 (6th)
all other possessions: 2:40 (4th)

None Those stats take into consideration Field position either.

Each game, each Drive is different. You have to view it in the context of each game. You can't just throw out blanket Stats and expect them to tell a Whole Story.

It's silly that some guys are even trying to argue this. It's like you can't see the bigger picture because a few STAT tells you differently.

 

[CowboyRoy]

This thread has went around and around , but when the season starts, Zeke and the oline will prove just how important they are to Romo, the offense and the defense. 2014 should have opened some eyes, but some posters have eyes and are still blind.

We didnt win the SB in 2014 and we didnt have a good enough team to do it. Why? Defense. If your happy with the notion of making the playoffs, then by all means jump for joy. If you are looking to build a championship lever contender for the long term success, then like me, you should feel cheated.

 

[jnday]

We didnt win the SB in 2014 and we didnt have a good enough team to do it. Why? Defense. If your happy with the notion of making the playoffs, then by all means jump for joy. If you are looking to build a championship lever contender for the long term success, then like me, you should feel cheated.

If there would have been a good pass rusher available, that would have been my pick. I would not waste a top ten pick on a DB to build a defense. The defensive side of the ball needs upgrades in the trenches. A DB with bad hands and no trus position is not a short or long term solution to the defense's problems. I would not have been upset with Bosa being the pick, but he wasn't available. If Zeke is as good as advertised , he will impact this team for years to come.vas it stood, Dsllas was not even young to reach the playoffs at all if they had to depend on the RBs on the roster before Zeke. I am all for building the defense, but I want the right players at the right positions. It is wasted picks and reaching to draft defense if the right player isn't available .

 

[percyhoward]

None Those stats take into consideration Field position either.

Each game, each Drive is different. You have to view it in the context of each game. You can't just throw out blanket Stats and expect them to tell a Whole Story.

It's silly that some guys are even trying to argue this. It's like you can't see the bigger picture because a few STAT tells you differently.

Average starting field position for Dallas' 4th-quarter drives was our own 30-yard line in 2014, and our own 31-yard line last year.

Specific criticisms like that one are appreciated.

 

[Sydla]

Great point Bat

That point was quickly refuted though one post later. LOL.

And then another point you tried to float got refuted about a minute after that.

 

[Sydla]

And let's note, the issue that really is the undercurrent of this entire debate is whether or not the Cowboys had to use the 4th pick in the draft to get "back to 2014".

I would guess that most those who were against Elliott at 4, still recognize that he's a great talent and should do well with the Cowboys. The issue is could we have gotten 2014 level running from a later pick, which is exactly what we did in 2014.

 

[CowboyRoy]

If there would have been a good pass rusher available, that would have been my pick. I would not waste a top ten pick on a DB to build a defense. The defensive side of the ball needs upgrades in the trenches. A DB with bad hands and no trus position is not a short or long term solution to the defense's problems. I would not have been upset with Bosa being the pick, but he wasn't available. If Zeke is as good as advertised , he will impact this team for years to come.vas it stood, Dsllas was not even young to reach the playoffs at all if they had to depend on the RBs on the roster before Zeke. I am all for building the defense, but I want the right players at the right positions. It is wasted picks and reaching to draft defense if the right player isn't available .

Ramsey was highly regarded as the best defensive player in the draft and possible the best player in the draft. He is a total and complete stud. If it also widely regarded that CB is on of the 4 prime positions in football. If you think corners are a waste, then whatever. You should also know that RB's are one of the least important positions on the team and given that we have the best line in football, that is even more so. Now I have no problem taking Zeke and I would like nothing more than a total stud to team with the line. But when your defense is as horrible as ours and you need to fill the prime positions, taking a RB at 4 was poor judgement.

But if you want to ignore things like value, position needs, shorter term vs long term, then by all means be happy. I certainly will enjoy watching Zeke shred the league and we do have a better shot at making the playoffs. But we didnt do much this offseason to address our real needs so we are no closer to a SB then we were prior to this year. All this is going to be is a last ditch effort to try and be competitive while Romo is still functional. But beyond that, this will prove to be a poor move.

 

[KJJ]

Adrian Peterson might go down as the greatest rb of all time.

If your pick in the draft has to match him for it to be justified.... You dun goofed.

Who says the RB you pick has to match Peterson to be justified? Everyone had Zeke in the top 5 and despite the Cowboys defensive needs they had a need at RB. You match a back with Zeke's skill set with the top OL in the league and it's going to greatly improve your offense and lead to more TD's. All the top defensive players had holes. Most felt Bosa wouldn't have been a top 10 pick in most drafts and that Chargers reached for him. No one knows if Ramsey is a corner or safety. His ball skills were being questioned and the Cowboys have had terrible luck under Jerry drafting DBs. Zeke was the safest pick when the Cowboys were on the clock. He's a complete back with speed, power, a good receiver and an excellent blocker. He's the best pick we've made since Dez and if he stays healthy he'll take some pressure off Romo.

With Romo aging and coming off injury we can't afford to have him carrying the team like he did on opening day last season due to the lack of a running game. Our running game cost us some games last season especially the Tampa game where McFadden averaged 1.9 a carry on 17 carries. In the final 6 minutes with the Cowboys leading McFadden took a 7 yard loss which put us in a passing situation the next 2 downs and it led to a punt. We had an opportunity to milk the clock but gave the ball right back to the Bucs resulting in them winning the game in the final seconds. Both times Romo was injured last season was on long down situations due to the lack of a running game. The defense was able to pin their ears back and come after him.

Against Carolina McFadden had 3 negative carries in his first 7 attempts forcing Romo to have to press. We had no running game and the Panthers defense pinned their ears back and came after Romo. Now we have a threat in the backfield that's going to put some fear in defenses and take the focus off just stopping Romo and our passing game. We won't have the 3rd and one issues we had last season. Having a back that has breakaway speed and can punish defenders is going to improve the team.

 

[CowboyRoy]

And let's note, the issue that really is the undercurrent of this entire debate is whether or not the Cowboys had to use the 4th pick in the draft to get "back to 2014".

Personally I could care less about getting back to 2014. Making the playoffs and short term success mean very little to me. I am all about building a championship team that can compete realistically for 5-7 years.

LIke the Seahawks, the Patriots, ect.....ect......

But that has become the goal of many beaten down, lower standard Cowboy fans over the years. I get it, but I will always hope for better.