The Near-Future of Mobile Gaming Is Going to Be Pretty Epic

[Baileyneverfailey]

1. I don't think a controller for a tablet is worthwhile unless you're also syncing to a TV set. In which case, if a dedicated gaming device can't stream to a television, it's lost the battle already.

2. If the options are carry around two devices (phone and dedicated gaming device) vs. carry around one device (phone) and a snap on controller, I'm not sure how that argument cuts in your favor.

The bottom line is dedicated gaming devices don't sell all that well because it's a VERY small slice of the market that buys those types of devices. Smart phones and tablets, however, are selling like hotcakes. And if you can get legitimate gaming experience on something that sells well, guess where the developers will head.

Go look up how many DS, DS Lites, DSi, DSiXL, and 3DSs nintendo has sold and try saying that again. The PSP wasn't nearly as successful as the DS, and Sony managed to sell 50+ million of those. You're right that more people own cell phones, because they use them as a phone. Tablet and smartphone gaming is not going to replace actual dedicated gaming. It's just not going to happen.

 

[theogt]

Go look up how many DS, DS Lites, DSi, DSiXL, and 3DSs nintendo has sold and try saying that again. The PSP wasn't nearly as successful as the DS, and Sony managed to sell 50+ million of those. You're right that more people own cell phones, because they use them as a phone. Tablet and smartphone gaming is not going to replace actual dedicated gaming. It's just not going to happen.

Here's the COMBINED quarterly sales figures for DS, DS Lites, DSi and DSiXL in the US from the fourth quarter of 2005 to 3rd quarter of 2010 (in millions):

2005-12-31 - 1.76
2006-03-31 - 0.48
2006-06-30 - 0.79
2006-09-30 - 1.61
2006-12-31 - 2.67
2007-03-31 - 1.56
2007-06-30 - 2.4
2007-09-30 - 1.92
2007-12-31 - 4.12
2008-03-31 - 2.21
2008-06-30 - 2.72
2008-09-30 - 2.52
2008-12-31 - 4.3
2009-03-31 - 2.53
2009-06-30 - 2.51
2009-09-30 - 2.38
2009-12-31 - 5.64
2010-03-31 - 1.75
2010-06-30 - 1.26
2010-09-30 - 1.28

It's likely there will be more iPads sold in 2011 than all of these quarters combined. If other tablets come even close to catching up with the iPad, the tablet market will sell 100 times as many units as these Nintendo handhelds sold.

Like I said, gaming handhelds are a tiny market.

 

[Kevinicus]

Here's the COMBINED quarterly sales figures for DS, DS Lites, DSi and DSiXL in the US from the fourth quarter of 2005 to 3rd quarter of 2010 (in millions):

2005-12-31 - 1.76
2006-03-31 - 0.48
2006-06-30 - 0.79
2006-09-30 - 1.61
2006-12-31 - 2.67
2007-03-31 - 1.56
2007-06-30 - 2.4
2007-09-30 - 1.92
2007-12-31 - 4.12
2008-03-31 - 2.21
2008-06-30 - 2.72
2008-09-30 - 2.52
2008-12-31 - 4.3
2009-03-31 - 2.53
2009-06-30 - 2.51
2009-09-30 - 2.38
2009-12-31 - 5.64
2010-03-31 - 1.75
2010-06-30 - 1.26
2010-09-30 - 1.28

It's likely there will be more iPads sold in 2011 than all of these quarters combined. If other tablets come even close to catching up with the iPad, the tablet market will sell 100 times as many units as these Nintendo handhelds sold.

Like I said, gaming handhelds are a tiny market.

Not sure where you get your stats, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong, and guarantee 50 million ipads are NOT sold in 2011. I highly doubt 25 million tablets, from all manufacturers will be sold in 2011, let alone ipads (Not including kindle's and other e-book devices).


http://ds.ign.com/articles/106/1064657p1.html

Current sales numbers put the figures closer to 145 million DS systems sold and that's not including the 3DS which just launched.

I guess about 15 BILLION tablets are going to be sold...

That has to be one of the most absurd posts in your history, and that is really saying a lot.

 

[theogt]

Not sure where you get your stats, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong, and guarantee 50 million ipads are NOT sold in 2011. I highly doubt 25 million tablets, from all manufacturers will be sold in 2011, let alone ipads (Not including kindle's and other e-book devices).


http://ds.ign.com/articles/106/1064657p1.html

Current sales numbers put the figures closer to 145 million DS systems sold and that's not including the 3DS which just launched.

I guess about 15 BILLION tablets are going to be sold...

That has to be one of the most absurd posts in your history, and that is really saying a lot.

My numbers are correct. They're actual sales per quarter in the US (or "Americas"). That 125 million is aggregate worldwide sales for all time. Not on a yearly or quarterly basis.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_DS_sales

Apple will likely sell around 30-40 million iPads in 2011. The biggest constraint there is making enough, not having enough customers.

 

[theogt]

Smartphone gaming has already risen to nearly 50% of mobile gaming.

Apple's strategy appears to be paying off. According to a December 2010 report by Interpret, smartphone gaming has risen to 43.8 percent of the mobile gaming market, while the number of games played on the Nintendo DS and Sony PSP has fallen by 13 percent.

http://iphone.appleinsider.com/arti..._pr_execs_from_nintendo_activision_rumor.html

 

[Baileyneverfailey]

Hey guys, everybody has a cell phone, and a lot of people play angry birds. On the other hand, in 2010 which was basically the last year of the previous handheld console cycle, while people waited on new information about the NGP and 3DS the sales of handheld games went down.

I guess this means people don't care about handheld games anymore, and generic smartphone and tablet games are going to take over.

Oh wait, the 3DS set a first day sales record for Nintendo?

Look guy, you sound like somebody who doesn't know how to change the oil in a car talking about how the Prius is going to be the only thing people drive in 2 years.

Smartphone and tablet games are great for people who have those devices and want something to do on them to justify the price they paid. I myself have a great phone and I play angry birds and other games like that on it when I am bored and out somewhere.

That being said, I also play games on legitimate handheld devices, and trust me, games like Final Fantasy Tactics: War of the Lions, Tactics Ogre, the handheld Zelda games, the God of War PSP games, are not games that you are going to be playing on a smartphone.

It's not because the hardware can't be there, it's all about the input and the desire of the users. There's a reason Sony keeps flirting with making a smartphone that doubles as the 'NGP' with full inputs built into it. That's the only way you're going to get the full gaming experience on a mobile phone.

 

[theogt]

Hey guys, everybody has a cell phone, and a lot of people play angry birds. On the other hand, in 2010 which was basically the last year of the previous handheld console cycle, while people waited on new information about the NGP and 3DS the sales of handheld games went down.

I guess this means people don't care about handheld games anymore, and generic smartphone and tablet games are going to take over.

Oh wait, the 3DS set a first day sales record for Nintendo?

Look guy, you sound like somebody who doesn't know how to change the oil in a car talking about how the Prius is going to be the only thing people drive in 2 years.

Smartphone and tablet games are great for people who have those devices and want something to do on them to justify the price they paid. I myself have a great phone and I play angry birds and other games like that on it when I am bored and out somewhere.

That being said, I also play games on legitimate handheld devices, and trust me, games like Final Fantasy Tactics: War of the Lions, Tactics Ogre, the handheld Zelda games, the God of War PSP games, are not games that you are going to be playing on a smartphone.

It's not because the hardware can't be there, it's all about the input and the desire of the users. There's a reason Sony keeps flirting with making a smartphone that doubles as the 'NGP' with full inputs built into it. That's the only way you're going to get the full gaming experience on a mobile phone.

Probably not hard to set a sales record for yourself when your sales have been pathetic historically.

 

[Kevinicus]

I see how it is, when you want to tout your precious ipad, you can use worldwide numbers, but when someone destroys your arguments with another product, only US figures are allowed. Typical, coming from you.

I guess you still think 5 billion tablets are going to be sold in the U.S. over the next 5 years, and another 10 billion in the rest of the world...right??

Of course, 1/6 of the population is a tiny market when you're comparing it to 250% of the population.

 

[Kevinicus]

Probably not hard to set a sales record for yourself when your sales have been pathetic historically.

Wow, you just don't have a clue. I'd tell you to go buy one, but you'd probably come back touting that 50 million clues would be purchased in 2011 and nothing would ever compare.

 

[theogt]

I see how it is, when you want to tout your precious ipad, you can use worldwide numbers, but when someone destroys your arguments with another product, only US figures are allowed. Typical, coming from you.

I guess you still think 5 billion tablets are going to be sold in the U.S. over the next 5 years, and another 10 billion in the rest of the world...right??

Of course, 1/6 of the population is a tiny market when you're comparing it to 250% of the population.

I only have worldwide numbers for the iPad, so that's what I use. But it was funny how you actually thought those Nintendo sales numbers were period numbers. What's even worse, given your last post, I still don't think you get the difference between aggregate all time to date sales and period sales. I wish I could be there to see the moment when it dawns on you how stupid you look.

 

[Kevinicus]

I only have worldwide numbers for the iPad, so that's what I use. But it was funny how you actually thought those Nintendo sales numbers were period numbers. What's even worse, given your last post, I still don't think you get the difference between aggregate all time to date sales and period sales. I wish I could be there to see the moment when it dawns on you how stupid you look.

If you're going to use wordwide numbers for the ipad because that's all you have, then you should use worldwide numbers for everything else.

US worldwide sales of the DS were in the 20-30 million range in 2006. It is now close to 150 million. That's 120-125 million over the last 5 year period which is 20 million+ per year.

What do you mean by period sales? You mean quarterly? I don't know where you got the idea that I didn't realize that. You talk about the ipad because of it's amazing TO DATE TOTAL WORDLWIDE sales, but then bash another product which eclipses those numbers.

And my last post was about your commenting that Nintendo has had small numbers at launch even though they have eclipsed the amazing Ipad in that area as well.

 

[theogt]

If you're going to use wordwide numbers for the ipad because that's all you have, then you should use worldwide numbers for everything else.

US worldwide sales of the DS were in the 20-30 million range in 2006. It is now close to 150 million. That's 120-125 million over the last 5 year period which is 20 million+ per year.

I'm not sure if you're referring to worldwide sales or US sales, but worldwide sales in 2006 for all Nintendo handheld devices was 21.18 million. US sales were 5.6 million.

Seriously. 5.6 million. That's what you call a niche market.

What do you mean by period sales? You mean quarterly?

A period is is any length of time, usually a quarter or a year. I can't believe I'm having to explain what a period is to an adult.

I don't know where you got the idea that I didn't realize that. You talk about the ipad because of it's amazing TO DATE TOTAL WORDLWIDE sales, but then bash another product which eclipses those numbers.

You're so confused, it's funny. By the way, I never once referred to iPad sales to date.

And my last post was about your commenting that Nintendo has had small numbers at launch even though they have eclipsed the amazing Ipad in that area as well.

Nintendo 3DS hasn't eclipsed the iPad in anything, much less sales figures. The iPad 2 sold more in one weekend than the 3DS has sold since launch.

 

[Kevinicus]

I'm not sure if you're referring to worldwide sales or US sales, but worldwide sales in 2006 for all Nintendo handheld devices was 21.18 million. US sales were 5.6 million.

Seriously. 5.6 million. That's what you call a niche market.

A period is is any length of time, usually a quarter or a year. I can't believe I'm having to explain what a period is to an adult.

You're so confused, it's funny. By the way, I never once referred to iPad sales to date.

Nintendo 3DS hasn't eclipsed the iPad in anything, much less sales figures. The iPad 2 sold more in one weekend than the 3DS has sold since launch.

You sure do confuse easily. Never did I indicate that I didn't realize those figures were based over time. Some of us have the ability to add though, sorry if that is something you haven't mastered yet.

You have, maybe not in this thread (though you probably have) touted the ipad's sales figures which up to the release of the ipad 2 were in the 13-15 million worldwide. Then here you bash the DS sales which have AVERAGED over 20 million per year worldwide.

The 3DS sold 303,000 in Europe in it's first couple days, it broke the DS' previous record in the U.S which puts it at least over 500,000, and then you have Japan which is over 500,00 as well.

So, I guess that 400,000 - 600,000 estimates for the Ipad 2's first few days is just so, so much better. Or the 300,000 estimates for the original Ipad which pale in comparison to the DS launch figures?

 

[theogt]

You sure do confuse easily. Never did I indicate that I didn't realize those figures were based over time. Some of us have the ability to add though, sorry if that is something you haven't mastered yet.

You have, maybe not in this thread (though you probably have) touted the ipad's sales figures which up to the release of the ipad 2 were in the 13-15 million worldwide. Then here you bash the DS sales which have AVERAGED over 20 million per year worldwide.

The 3DS sold 303,000 in Europe in it's first couple days, it broke the DS' previous record in the U.S which puts it at least over 500,000, and then you have Japan which is over 500,00 as well.

So, I guess that 400,000 - 600,000 estimates for the Ipad 2's first few days is just so, so much better. Or the 300,000 estimates for the original Ipad which pale in comparison to the DS launch figures?

iPad 2 sold nearly 1 million units in the US alone on launch. Nintendo 3DS sold nearly 1 million units WORLDWIDE over numerous launches.

On top of that the Nintendo 3DS did not sell out at launch. The iPad 2 sold less than 1 million because it sold out. If Apple were able to have 2 million on launch day, they would have sold 2 million.

Please tell me again -- where did the 3DS eclipse the iPad?

 

[Kevinicus]

iPad 2 sold nearly 1 million units in the US alone on launch. Nintendo 3DS sold nearly 1 million units WORLDWIDE over numerous launches.

On top of that the Nintendo 3DS did not sell out at launch. The iPad 2 sold less than 1 million because it sold out. If Apple were able to have 2 million on launch day, they would have sold 2 million.

Please tell me again -- where did the 3DS eclipse the iPad?

Please do tell where you have gotten your Ipad 2 sales numbers since mac hasn't released that as far as I'm aware, and 1 million was the top of a very large estimate range (as little as 400,000). And 3DS is easily over 1 million, not nearly, and we don't have those numbers either. And please state where I said the 3DS bested the Ipad 2. Hint: I never did.

The original DS had no trouble besting the Ipad though (US launch comparison).

 

[theogt]

Please do tell where you have gotten your Ipad 2 sales numbers since mac hasn't released that as far as I'm aware, and 1 million was the top of a very large estimate range (as little as 400,000). And 3DS is easily over 1 million, not nearly, and we don't have those numbers either. And please state where I said the 3DS bested the Ipad 2. Hint: I never did.

The original DS had no trouble besting the Ipad though (US launch comparison).

Dude, the original DS (which debuted at $150) and the original iPad (which debuted at $500+) both sold 500,000 units over the first week.

You're so ignorant it's embarrassing.

Since launch, the iPad has killed all DS systems in sales, both in the US and worldwide.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Not sure why people try to debate with Theo. (I gave up and just put him on ignore) He isn't interested in considering what you have to say, just promoting his own agenda.

 

[theogt]

Not sure why people try to debate with Theo. (I gave up and just put him on ignore) He isn't interested in considering what you have to say, just promoting his own agenda.

Or you can simply not take internet discussions so personally.

 

[Baileyneverfailey]

If you really just said that Nintendo's sales of handheld gaming devices are pathetic, you should just blow your brains out and be done with it because you are too stupid to be alive.

You know there are more macbooks sold than financial calculators too, but when I need to do some quick calculations I'm probably not going to spend more money on a device that does that job worse just because it can. :laugh2:

The ipad is a great device. It's just not going to become some leader in actual gaming. There are mobile games, and then there are games on dedicated devices. If you haven't head the back of your skull blown out by one of Steve Jobs' climaxes 2 years from now, come back and discuss the state of mobile gaming and see who is right.

 

[theogt]

If you really just said that Nintendo's sales of handheld gaming devices are pathetic, you should just blow your brains out and be done with it because you are too stupid to be alive.

You know there are more macbooks sold than financial calculators too, but when I need to do some quick calculations I'm probably not going to spend more money on a device that does that job worse just because it can. :laugh2:

The ipad is a great device. It's just not going to become some leader in actual gaming. There are mobile games, and then there are games on dedicated devices. If you haven't head the back of your skull blown out by one of Steve Jobs' climaxes 2 years from now, come back and discuss the state of mobile gaming and see who is right.

I don't think we need to wait. Mobile gaming on smart phones and tablets already exceeds dedicated handhelds and the market share of dedicated handhelds is declining rapidly. I don't think dedicated handhelds will exist 5 years from now.

My argument isn't dependent on Apple. It's all mobile devices, including Android. I have no irrational allegiance to any one particular manufacturer.