The Outlier QB vs A 1st Round QB Working Out

[mardwin]

I agree I think it's pretty simple and Daks case you're a good quarterback but you're not Patrick mahomes you need more help to do your job at a high level than he does.

As a result we can't pay you like him because we need to use some of that money to get you the help you need pretty much that simple.
And all the statistics in the world do not justify your limitations.

Limitations that need to be overcome by more quality personnel that have to be paid

it is not that easy when we have the worst negotiator in the league. No reason for Dak to be paid as an elite QB when he needs elite talent around him to be above average. We need an elite defense, elite receivers, an elite offensive line and an elite RB.

 

[mardwin]

Since 2000, 69 QBs have been drafted in the 1st round. Of those 6 have won a Super Bowl. That 6 includes Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Flacco. I would dispute that it is easier to find a SB winning QB in the draft than win with Dak.

And as I said in another post, The QB that has the potential to win the SB might not even be that obvious come draft time. Of the 6 SB winning QB only 2 were the first pick in the draft. The other 4 were passed on by other teams including Mahomes who was passed on by 10 other teams including the Bill who traded the pick to KC so they could take him.

What some people who are blaming Dak are refusing to accept is that this team had other weaknesses that hurt them more than Dak and that includes a soft defense and no running game. My goodness, look at the LBs who started against the Packers and then explain to me how exactly we expected to stop the run.

against SF last year nothing hurt this team more than Dak.

 

[HungryLion]

Very good points OP

 

[America's Cowboy]

So the Super Bowl from two days ago was between the last player drafted and a first round QB and goes to OT and you think this is a good time for this point?

His Dak hatred blinds him and everyone who likes his ignorant takes.

 

[Blitzen]

I don't know that they are or aren't "trying" right now. I'm a BPA in the draft all day every day, but the one place I make an exception is QB. Every other position if you want to spend you can improve in free agency. My point is it's not that simple. If they have a QB on the board at #24 they love I'm fine with it. Heck, I'd be fine with trading up as well. But the key is the right guy needs to be there. If your scouts only have a couple of QBs rated as good enough to pick there and they are all gone it doesn't help. I'm not sure that has been the case when we have drafted lately. Thank Goodness we didn't take Johnny Football. He seems to be the last QB that at least one person associated with this team liked when we got on the board. Most of the QBs the OP mentioned were top 10 picks and we won't be getting that type of guy

Why is it so hard for you guys to just answer a couple of simple questions that the OP is driving at?

Do you believe the chances of Dak succeeding in the postseason are good enough to continue building around him (he is NOT asking what Jones will do or what you think he will do)?

Knowing that Dak would be the first QB to ever start appearing in conference championships or SB’s at this point in his career-should make fans question Dak’s ability to succeed where everyone else has failed (in league history). If you are of the mind that Dak is going to succeed in the playoffs, what evidence do you have to support your case (please say it’s his regular season stats vs the Washingtons, Giants, Panthers of the league)?

If you concede that you do not believe Dak will ever ultimately succeed in the playoffs, what would be the issue as a fan with moving on right now? It’s not the salary cap-see what Denver is about to do with Wilson and his contract.

 

[Blackrain]

it is not that easy when we have the worst negotiator in the league. No reason for Dak to be paid as an elite QB when he needs elite talent around him to be above average. We need an elite defense, elite receivers, an elite offensive line and an elite RB.

I definitely agree that Dak has to throw us some kind of a bone here so we can put more talent around him to help him

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

His Dak hatred blinds him and everyone who likes his ignorant takes.

Does Kurt Warner not have any recent videos you can plagiarize?

 

[5Stars]

Does Kurt Warner not have any recent videos you can plagiarize?

I think they are right behind the videos of Cole Beasley.

 

[1942willys]

I think they are right behind the videos of Cole Beasley.

I just fell off my chair laughing

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

What’s easier to find? ...

There's been statistical analysis done on this topic of course. I posted a long study on this during the off-season.

The fact is that first round picks have a higher success rate than second rounders, and second rounders have a higher success rate than third rounders. After the third round, the probability drops significantly.

Folks are quick to point out the outliers- Brady is the perfect example. Exceptions to the general "rule" don't disprove the "rule" though.

Its also true that even first round picks washout frequently. A lot of draft capital has been wasted on QB's in the first round. That also does not disprove the "rule".

I agree with the OP.

 

[OmerV]

Russell Wilson is currently the only active QB to win a Super Bowl and not be drafted in the 1st round.

We have Dak. The Cowboys would have to make NFL history at the point to win a Super Bowl with Dak.

Dak is a 4th rounder, over 30, entering his 9th season on the team that drafted him, all while taking up the majority of the cap. He would have to be the 1st QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with all that baggage attached. He would become the ultimate outlier. The outlier of all outliers.

So I ask. Why are some so horrified of drafting a QB high and moving on? The chances that we hit on that QB are astronomically higher than Dak ever leading the Cowboys to a Super Bowl victory. There’s 1st round QB hits almost every year, but there’s never been a QB win anything with Daks baggage.

It's not as if there are boatloads of active QBs who have won the Super Bowl at all. There are only 5 total, and Wilson was one of those. Of the other 4, 3 were drafted 15 years ago or more.

Of the last 12 Super Bowls, 6 were won by a QB that was not a 1st rounder, and 6 on the losing SB team were not 1st rounders.

That's not to say Dak is the best possible guy, and of course higher draft picks carry greater odds of success, but to pretend only 1st rounders really have a shot is wrong.

BTW, Brees was also 30 and in his 9th season when he won the Super Bowl. And no, Dak is not taking up the majority of the salary cap, which is expected to be over $240MM. Plus that, if they extend Dak, the cap hit he does have will probably get spread out in the deal

 

[jazzcat22]

How many of these type of threads are needed. They are disguised for one purpose only.

 

[DallasEast]

They won’t pay Purdy top money either.

I have been interested in seeing how those contract negotiations will eventually play out. Brock Purdy signed a four-year contract. This will be his third season, so extension talks should start soon if they have not already.

The 49ers side is not the only thing of consideration. Purdy and his agent may weigh how San Francisco will plan on keeping its core players under its salary cap and adjust their demands accordingly.

By all accounts, Purdy is pretty humble. That may work in favor of both negotiating parties' best interest down the road.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Sometimes it seems that Tony Romo's success has almost been a curse on the Cowboys. It "taught" Jerry Jones that he could get a QB without investing significant draft capital. That lesson was further reinforced with the success of Dak Prescott. Jerry loves a bargain- just look at his hero picks in the second round. Jerry thinks he is so clever that he can outsmart the league. Enter another bargain with a fourth rounder for Lance.

Remember the last time the Cowboys invested top level draft capital in an elite QB? That was the last time the Cowboys sniffed a championship (or three).

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

It’s crazy this is even a discussion. Common sense would say the better players are generally picked earliest.

If you are lacking common sense there is also Google. One could look at the history of the SB and compare where the starting QBs were drafted. It’s full of QBs taken in the first. The vast majority were in rounds 1-3.

My favorite excuse is too many first rounders are busts. But how many 7th round QBs made it besides Purdy?

It would be laughable but unfortunately Jerry is in the ‘don’t draft a QB before day 3” camp.

as you said, there is a reason those players get drafted in the first round. they are more talented. had better college careers. so chances of finding one in the first round is high. and that trend continues for top 10 picks. most of the QBs in OPs list are top 7 picks. Mahomes being the exception. the other two first rounders haven't really had success. Lamar is 2-4 in playoffs and has had very strong teams around him. Love has had one good year, so lets see how he does over next couple of years. Herbert, Lawrence seem to have the talent, but have under achieved to date.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Here's my off-season post on this topic: (add another #1 with Mahomes recent victory!)

QB's who played in the Super-bowl, from 2007, and their draft round:
Brady, a 6th round pick, is excluded from this list.
Round/Player

1 Manning
1 Grossman
1 Manning
1 Roethlisberger
n/a Warner
2 Brees
1 Manning
1 Rodgers
1 Roethlisberger
1 Manning (Eli)
1 Flacco
2 Kaepernick
3 Wilson
1 Manning
3 Wilson
1 Manning
1 Newton
1 Ryan
3 Foles
1 Goff
1 Mahomes
2 Garoppolo
1 Mahomes
1 Stafford
1 Burrow
1 Mahomes
2 Hurts

 

[Jimbo123]

How many 4th round or lower QBs not named Brady has won Super Bowls since 2000?

Four
Brees - 2 rd
Foles - 3 rd
Wilson - 3 rd
Brad Johnson - 9 rd

 

[MikeT22]

Four
Brees - 2 rd
Foles - 3 rd
Wilson - 3 rd
Brad Johnson - 9 rd

Um, that’s one 4th rd or lower.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Four
Brees - 2 rd
Foles - 3 rd
Wilson - 3 rd
Brad Johnson - 9 rd

You mean 1?

I said 4th round or lower.

 

[Jimbo123]

Four
Brees - 2 rd
Foles - 3 rd
Wilson - 3 rd
Brad Johnson - 9 rd

Um, that’s one 4th rd or lower.

oops 1
First rounders and Brady have won 20 of the 24 SBs