The Outlier QB vs A 1st Round QB Working Out

[1942willys]

I just don't understand how we could think that there is some SB winning QB out there for Dallas to draft or sign that will guaranteed be better than Dak. The comments, "cut Dak and draft a QB in the first round" sounds so simple, but the reality is that won't work as well as the anti-Dak people think. Many teams have already done that and not made it to the Super Bowl.

Since 2000, the Browns, Jags, Jets, and Commanders have drafted 4 QBs in the first round. None of those teams have been to a Super Bowl in that time period. The Browns and Jets traded for a top QB after failing to draft one. The Commanders still don't have a QB.

The Patriots drafted 1 QB in the first round since 2000. That was Mac Jones. We know how that turned out. But Tom Brady was passed over by over team in the NFL at least 5 times in the draft. But we have to assume if Jerry is looking for a QB he would be the one to spot the Tom Brady in a crowd.

The question for me is, would I rather the Cowboys have winning seasons, win division titles, and make it into the playoffs fairly consistently with Dak? Or, would I prefer to let Dak go, and hope that by chance the next Patrick Mahomes falls into Jerry's lap in a year or 2? The problem is, we don't know how long that will take. The Bears, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Bucs, Cards, Chargers, Jets, Jags, and Commanders have all drafted at least 3 first round QBs since 2000. Some have gotten good QBs but none have gotten to a Super Bowl.

Heck, the Colts draft Andrew Luck and still never made it to a Super Bowl.

So if you ask me, do the Cowboys have a better chance of making it to a Super Bowl with Dak, than without him in the next 5 years, I think the answer is with him. Because if they cut him the chances of getting there in the next 5 years with some unknown is slim to none.

We have to stop ignoring the other weaknesses on this team and pretending that there is some QB out there good enough to overcome them. Mahomes is a great QB, but without his defense he doesn't win the Super Bowl either.

I am tire of just being relevant. Because as long as the current system is in place that is all we will ever be

 

[Cowboys5217]

dak is the schleprock, with fear issues. you can't have everything.

 

[Kwyn]

If they draft a QB, that automatically entails full rebuild mode…. They go hand and hand.. there is no more attachment to catering to the guy who has been here 8 years running, with everything tailored to him..

Not necessarily. Do we go ahead and tie up extensions for all our big time players?

Do we spend in free agency to “win now”?

Or, do we accept and expect an off year and aim for a longer view?

 

[khiladi]

Not necessarily. Do we go ahead and tie up extensions for all our big time players?

Do we spend in free agency to “win now”?

Or, do we accept and expect an off year and aim for a longer view?

I mean CeeDee Lamb is a WR and can line up anywhere. If you are drafting a QB, you are still going to need a top WR. Other pieces, like Tyron Smith we are going to need to replace anyways, based on age.

 

[khiladi]

“Don’t trade up for Mahomes! We just need to get Alex Smith more help. We can’t move on from Smith because solid QBs like him are hard to find”

Remember, 4 of Dalton's games, with a battered OL, the Cowboys averaged over 40 points against the type of teams Dak averaged 40 points against, but Dak had a complete roster the years he started. The same year Dalton was here, dude was 1-4. Give Dalton a full season with what Dak was working with, we probably could have won a play-off game.

 

[Creeper]

How many 4th round or lower QBs not named Brady has won Super Bowls since 2000?

But this isn't the argument, is it? "Dak can't win a Super Bowl because of where he was drafted"?

The anti-Dak guys are suggesting that the chances of winning the Super Bow with Dak are less than if we cut him and start drafting QBs in the first round. I imagine if would go this way. We cut Dak, suffer years of bad teams until at one point we get a pick high enough to draft one of the top QBs and hope he is not Mitch Trubisky.

17 QBs have been taken with the very first pick of the draft cine 2000. 2 have won a Super Bowl. 5 have been to a Super Bowl. Those 5 includes Matthew Stafford who won nothing in Detroit until he was traded to the Rams who went all out filling their roster with good players. Then Stafford won a championship. When Stafford was with Detroit, who thought he was better than Dak? Who thought Stafford would win a Super Bowl in Detroit.

22 QBs have been taken in the first 2 picks of the draft. The number who won a Super Bowl is still 2. The same is true for the first 9 picks. Mahomes was taken 10th, Ben Roethlisberger was taken 11th.

Russell Wilson and Nick Foles were taken in the 3rd round and they won Super Bowls.

I think the cut Dak crowd are underestimating Dak and over-estimating the rest of the Cowboys squad. They are talking like if we had another QB but the same guys playing LB and DL, this team could win a Super Bowl.
Dak is not the best QB in the league. But he is at least top 10, and with a better defense, one that is more dependable, the Cowboys could win with Dak.

 

[Proof]

It’s crazy this is even a discussion. Common sense would say the better players are generally picked earliest.

If you are lacking common sense there is also Google. One could look at the history of the SB and compare where the starting QBs were drafted. It’s full of QBs taken in the first. The vast majority were in rounds 1-3.

My favorite excuse is too many first rounders are busts. But how many 7th round QBs made it besides Purdy?

It would be laughable but unfortunately Jerry is in the ‘don’t draft a QB before day 3” camp.

just for arguments sake. do you know how many qb's have played in the superbowl total?

 

[Proof]

There's been statistical analysis done on this topic of course. I posted a long study on this during the off-season.

The fact is that first round picks have a higher success rate than second rounders, and second rounders have a higher success rate than third rounders. After the third round, the probability drops significantly.

Folks are quick to point out the outliers- Brady is the perfect example. Exceptions to the general "rule" don't disprove the "rule" though.

Its also true that even first round picks washout frequently. A lot of draft capital has been wasted on QB's in the first round. That also does not disprove the "rule".

I agree with the OP.

since you seem like you have done the research (or at least don't mind doing it) do you know where's the sweet spot to draft a successful qb? Obviously the first round, but whats the demarcation point before it becomes less and less likely? top 10? 15? etc.

 

[stiletto]

Go BIG or go home. We go home either way, so might as well draft a QB high until you find a guy that doesn't clam up when the lights get bright. I'm definitely on that bus for sure now.

 

[Proof]

It's not as if there are boatloads of active QBs who have won the Super Bowl at all. There are only 5 total, and Wilson was one of those. Of the other 4, 3 were drafted 15 years ago or more.

Of the last 12 Super Bowls, 6 were won by a QB that was not a 1st rounder, and 6 on the losing SB team were not 1st rounders.

That's not to say Dak is the best possible guy, and of course higher draft picks carry greater odds of success, but to pretend only 1st rounders really have a shot is wrong.

BTW, Brees was also 30 and in his 9th season when he won the Super Bowl. And no, Dak is not taking up the majority of the salary cap, which is expected to be over $240MM. Plus that, if they extend Dak, the cap hit he does have will probably get spread out in the deal

excellent points.

 

[Proof]

Great follow up to your previous "If you ain't got the QB you better find him post".

Some here will never truly grasp the importance of the role of one guy's performance effecting every single offensive snap of the ball.
The supporting cast theorists will go to their grave saying a mid tier guy with a more complete team is just as good.

While nothing could be further from the truth.

i challenge you to find one person who doesn't understand the importance of the qb. the only people who think a mid tier qb with a complete team is good are the people fawning over the 9ers.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

But this isn't the argument, is it? "Dak can't win a Super Bowl because of where he was drafted"?

The anti-Dak guys are suggesting that the chances of winning the Super Bow with Dak are less than if we cut him and start drafting QBs in the first round. I imagine if would go this way. We cut Dak, suffer years of bad teams until at one point we get a pick high enough to draft one of the top QBs and hope he is not Mitch Trubisky.

17 QBs have been taken with the very first pick of the draft cine 2000. 2 have won a Super Bowl. 5 have been to a Super Bowl. Those 5 includes Matthew Stafford who won nothing in Detroit until he was traded to the Rams who went all out filling their roster with good players. Then Stafford won a championship. When Stafford was with Detroit, who thought he was better than Dak? Who thought Stafford would win a Super Bowl in Detroit.

22 QBs have been taken in the first 2 picks of the draft. The number who won a Super Bowl is still 2. The same is true for the first 9 picks. Mahomes was taken 10th, Ben Roethlisberger was taken 11th.

Russell Wilson and Nick Foles were taken in the 3rd round and they won Super Bowls.

I think the cut Dak crowd are underestimating Dak and over-estimating the rest of the Cowboys squad. They are talking like if we had another QB but the same guys playing LB and DL, this team could win a Super Bowl.
Dak is not the best QB in the league. But he is at least top 10, and with a better defense, one that is more dependable, the Cowboys could win with Dak.

The anti-Dak guys are suggesting that it's going to take literal NFL history for Dak to win a Super Bowl at this point under his circumstances. The already astronomical odds required for Dak to be the first to do it under his circumstances becomes even more astronomical every year that passes.

Us anti-Dak guys simply believe, because it's a fact, that it's easier by a landslide to find an elite QB in the draft than it is winning a Super Bowl with a QB that would be the first ever under his circumstances to do it.

I get it, you're probably scared like Jerry to take a risk, but scared never won anything. That's why we've been losers for 30 years.

 

[Blackrain]

I wish they would make all the moves you want them too.

I would be interested in seeing your response when Dak plays small during big games, like he has his entire career, and we lose.

My response at that point would be we did everything we could do to help him and it would be time to move on especially in consideration of his contract.

And trust me if we moved on from him and drafted a Young quarterback I would not be in any way heartbroken but I would hope the front office would provide a rookie with an adequate offensive line and running game so he wouldn't be ruined right out of the gate.
I still want the front office to do their part whether we retain back or draft a new quarterback it is vital to play off success no matter who is the quarterback

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

since you seem like you have done the research (or at least don't mind doing it) do you know where's the sweet spot to draft a successful qb? Obviously the first round, but whats the demarcation point before it becomes less and less likely? top 10? 15? etc.

That's a good question. It would be a fun off-season project. The higher the better obviously.

One problem with the analysis is the definition of success. Is it Wins? Playoff wins? Super-Bowl wins? Pro-Bowl or All-Pro lists? One really has to specify some objective criteria.

The wild card to me is that the worst teams are drafting first. That affects success tremendously in my view. What if Lawrence had gone to San Fran, and Purdy had gone to Jacksonville? Look at Goff.....

 

[Proof]

That's a good question. It would be a fun off-season project. The higher the better obviously.

One problem with the analysis is the definition of success. Is it Wins? Playoff wins? Super-Bowl wins? Pro-Bowl or All-Pro lists? One really has to specify some objective criteria.

The wild card to me is that the worst teams are drafting first. That affects success tremendously in my view. What if Lawrence had gone to San Fran, and Purdy had gone to Jacksonville? Look at Goff.....

right, agreed. and yeah success is a tricky qualifier. i suppose ultimately i’d like to compare dak to other first round qbs to see if i agree with the op. like how bad would we have to be before the odds were in our favor

 

[Blackrain]

What’s easier to find?

A Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Stroud, Love, Lawrence, or Lamar?

Or

Tom Brady

Brady is right now the ultimate outlier. The GOAT that everyone passed over multiple times.

Russell Wilson is currently the only active QB to win a Super Bowl and not be drafted in the 1st round.

We have Dak. The Cowboys would have to make NFL history at the point to win a Super Bowl with Dak.

Dak is a 4th rounder, over 30, entering his 9th season on the team that drafted him, all while taking up the majority of the cap. He would have to be the 1st QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with all that baggage attached. He would become the ultimate outlier. The outlier of all outliers.

So I ask. Why are some so horrified of drafting a QB high and moving on? The chances that we hit on that QB are astronomically higher than Dak ever leading the Cowboys to a Super Bowl victory. There’s 1st round QB hits almost every year, but there’s never been a QB win anything with Daks baggage.

Well it's about 10 pages in and I hate to be the bringer of bad tidings but Dak isn't even the first Cowboys quarterback. To be drafted late and have the opportunity to win a super bowl in his thirties.

The greatest Dallas cowboy of all time was drafted in the 10th round and won his first super bowl at probably 30 years old and another one around 35 years old.

He fulfilled his military obligation and with all that baggage managed to win two super bowls.

Craig Morton was drafted 5th overall in 1965 but couldn't get it done.
Just saying they're mountain something to think about before we claim Dak having success is impossible.
.

 

[MikeT22]

just for arguments sake. do you know how many qb's have played in the superbowl total?

Yes, and I know the vast majority were 1st-3rd rounders and the majority overall were 1st rounders.

No one has said every 1st round QB will win a SB, make it to a SB or be a home run pick. But the odds favor finding an elite QB when selecting one earlier than later, go figure.

 

[MikeT22]

Well it's about 10 pages in and I hate to be the bringer of bad tidings but Dak isn't even the first Cowboys quarterback. To be drafted late and have the opportunity to win a super bowl in his thirties.

The greatest Dallas cowboy of all time was drafted in the 10th round and won his first super bowl at probably 30 years old and another one around 35 years old.

He fulfilled his military obligation and with all that baggage managed to win two super bowls.

Having to fulfill his Navy obligations is the only reason he wasn’t drafted until the 10th round.

Also, Dak is no Roger Staubach.

 

[charron]

None of that really matters. What matters is how much you pay a player. Anytime you pay a non elite player max money you hurt the team and that is amplified when said player takes on such a huge portion of the cap. I mean who is really mad at Flacco for losing in the playoffs? Baker Mayfield is another guy making less than 5 million total for 1 year of service. Personally i'd rather spend money upgrading multiple positions while drafting for the future than spend 50+ million a year on 1 guy unless that guy is a mahomes, brady, maybe burrow who can make average skill players look elite.

 

[Blackrain]

Having to fulfill his Navy obligations is the only reason he wasn’t drafted until the 10th round.

Also, Dak is no Roger Staubach.

All true brother and imagine what he could have done having started his career 4 years earlier there would have been some more trophies in our cabinet.