The Outlier QB vs A 1st Round QB Working Out

[MikeT22]

All true brother and imagine what he could have done having started his career 4 years earlier there would have been some more trophies in our cabinet.

What I would give to have had him young enough and healthy to have stayed thru ‘81 or ‘82.

 

[Proof]

Yes, and I know the vast majority were 1st-3rd rounders and the majority overall were 1st rounders.

No one has said every 1st round QB will win a SB, make it to a SB or be a home run pick. But the odds favor finding an elite QB when selecting one earlier than later, go figure.

i got distracted and forgot my point. I just had never really stopped to think how small the number is. just over 60 and that’s kind of mind boggling. just frames some of the odds / stats of sb playing / winning qbs in a different light to me. obviously the odds are greater earlier than later, but i’m more curious what the odds say about drafting a qb better than ours. just interesting is all

 

[Blackrain]

What I would give to have had him young enough and healthy to have stayed thru ‘81 or ‘82.

Yes unfortunately back in those days the quarterback was not nearly as well protected as they are today.
In today's game Roger would play into his 40s.
Roger was a superbly conditioned athlete that at the time had the least amount of body fat in the NFL.

 

[1942willys]

Yes unfortunately back in those days the quarterback was not nearly as well protected as they are today.
In today's game Roger would play into his 40s.
Roger was a superbly conditioned athlete that at the time had the least amount of body fat in the NFL.

Compared to today the QBs of the early to mid 70's got NO protection at all
Very true Roger today could probably play nearly as long as brady did. I think he was 37 when he retired which was pretty old back them for a QB

 

[shabazz]

The 1st rounder we are coveting is already on the team....Trey Aloysious Lance.

....."and a child shall lead them"

 

[buybuydandavis]

You’re falling for the trap many others have.

You think trying and failing is worse than not trying at all in terms of drafting a QB.

What’s more likely?

We hit on a 1st round QB or Dak becomes the 1st QB ever to win a Super Bowl under his circumstances?

Purdy's contract is a *yuge* advantage for SF and he's overcoming the draft picks they spent in the 1st on Lance.

My solution is *more* QB draft picks. Carry *more* of them. Work on developing them. Seems like the hit rates on down roster QBs *who get a chance on good teams* is pretty good.

The 1st Round SB QBs probably largely correlates with young teams who got a rebuild.

 

[Blitzen]

I just don't understand how we could think that there is some SB winning QB out there for Dallas to draft or sign that will guaranteed be better than Dak. The comments, "cut Dak and draft a QB in the first round" sounds so simple, but the reality is that won't work as well as the anti-Dak people think. Many teams have already done that and not made it to the Super Bowl.

Since 2000, the Browns, Jags, Jets, and Commanders have drafted 4 QBs in the first round. None of those teams have been to a Super Bowl in that time period. The Browns and Jets traded for a top QB after failing to draft one. The Commanders still don't have a QB.

The Patriots drafted 1 QB in the first round since 2000. That was Mac Jones. We know how that turned out. But Tom Brady was passed over by over team in the NFL at least 5 times in the draft. But we have to assume if Jerry is looking for a QB he would be the one to spot the Tom Brady in a crowd.

The question for me is, would I rather the Cowboys have winning seasons, win division titles, and make it into the playoffs fairly consistently with Dak? Or, would I prefer to let Dak go, and hope that by chance the next Patrick Mahomes falls into Jerry's lap in a year or 2? The problem is, we don't know how long that will take. The Bears, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Bucs, Cards, Chargers, Jets, Jags, and Commanders have all drafted at least 3 first round QBs since 2000. Some have gotten good QBs but none have gotten to a Super Bowl.

Heck, the Colts draft Andrew Luck and still never made it to a Super Bowl.

So if you ask me, do the Cowboys have a better chance of making it to a Super Bowl with Dak, than without him in the next 5 years, I think the answer is with him. Because if they cut him the chances of getting there in the next 5 years with some unknown is slim to none.

We have to stop ignoring the other weaknesses on this team and pretending that there is some QB out there good enough to overcome them. Mahomes is a great QB, but without his defense he doesn't win the Super Bowl either.

I understand you. I’m done with Dak because I’m certain the Cowboys have gone as far with Dak as they can go. I believe the chances of the team winning a Super Bowl to be zero with Dak as the starting QB (and right next to zero to reach a CCG)- no matter who they add to the roster or which coaches are brought in (also no matter if they keep him 5 or 10 years). Whatever the extension ends up being -you can add 3-4 years to that and that will be the soonest realistic chance at better playoff success.

I do not believe the chances of finding a QB that would be capable of winning a Super Bowl to be very good. I just believe any extension of Dak is an extension of the inevitable rebuild. No reason to delay it when the team with Dak is already a known quantity in the playoffs.

 

[Blitzen]

Well it's about 10 pages in and I hate to be the bringer of bad tidings but Dak isn't even the first Cowboys quarterback. To be drafted late and have the opportunity to win a super bowl in his thirties.

The greatest Dallas cowboy of all time was drafted in the 10th round and won his first super bowl at probably 30 years old and another one around 35 years old.

He fulfilled his military obligation and with all that baggage managed to win two super bowls.

Craig Morton was drafted 5th overall in 1965 but couldn't get it done.
Just saying they're mountain something to think about before we claim Dak having success is impossible.
.

Roger won the Super Bowl his first year of starting most of the season-lol. Not the best comparison since Dak is entering year number 9 as starter and still has not even made the CCG.

The idea of the team suddenly making NFL history with him now is absurd. The extension that is coming is just more marketing and promotion-no playoff substance but plenty of glitzy regular season beat downs of bottom dwellers.

 

[kskboys]

When you fail with an outlier you are still in good shape. If you fail with a $60MM QB for are EFFFFFFED for years! Same with a first round failure -you are EFFFFFED for years.

So what if you fail w/ a 60 mil outlier?

 

[kskboys]

I agree I think it's pretty simple and Daks case you're a good quarterback but you're not Patrick mahomes you need more help to do your job at a high level than he does.

As a result we can't pay you like him because we need to use some of that money to get you the help you need pretty much that simple.
And all the statistics in the world do not justify your limitations.

Limitations that need to be overcome by more quality personnel that have to be paid

And Paying CeeDee 30 mil will make things worse.

 

[Blackrain]

Roger won the Super Bowl his first year of starting most of the season-lol. Not the best comparison since Dak is entering year number 9 as starter and still has not even made the CCG.

The idea of the team suddenly making NFL history with him now is absurd. The extension that is coming is just more marketing and promotion-no playoff substance but plenty of glitzy regular season beat downs of bottom dwellers.

Hey just so we're clear I'm in no way comparing Roger Staubach to DAk there is no comparison other than the fact it fit the OPs criteria of being drafted later and winning a super bowl in your 30s.

Furthermore I am not on board with paying him mahomes type of money he needs to give us a big hometown discount.

All that said I think he could do better if the front office would do their job and provide him a running game along with getting us some quality defensive tackles and linebackers so we could stop The Run.

We have let our offensive line get very long in the tooth we have also seen what happens when a line gets old and all of a sudden hits the wall.
You could draft a Young quarterback and ruin him behind a bad offensive line it needs to get fixed to protect whatever quarterback we have and give us some type of a run game

 

[Blackrain]

And Paying CeeDee 30 mil will make things worse.

Agreed he's not worth that

 

[TWOK11]

Most elite QBs historically have been drafted in the first round, just like a majority of elite players at EVERY position. But it’s also true the overwhelming majority of first round QBs are busts.

Conceding being horrible for a few years on the hope that you find one of the ones that isn’t a bust is a tough sell to a fanbase. And some franchises that try this end up stuck there for literally decades.

 

[Captain-Crash]

you are never winning crap with dak, it's the same thing as with Garrett. sheesh, we just need to add better players to carry the sack of crap. Oh, let's blame Jerry because the sack of crap chokes in high-pressure games, but let's extend him because we are scared to not have a choker who beats bad teams. This is the stupidest crap I've ever seen. sheesh. I hope they pay CD a ton of money too, and they run out of money to pay Parsons, because we're scared we can't find a choke who hasn't done crap for us. sheesh.

 

[Nav22]

10 pages from this garbage poster's thread?

@MountaineerCowboy says we should draft the next Patrick Mahomes.

WHAT A BRILLIANT PLAN!!!!!!

DO IT, JERRY!!!!

Lowly, inferior Eagles fan in disguise. Epitome of pathetic.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

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One guy is signed for $450M and the other for $3.7M. How did the QB (Trubisky) drafted before Mahomes that year do?

You need more fiber in your diet. Tea also helps the digestion.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

10 pages from this garbage poster's thread?

@MountaineerCowboy says we should draft the next Patrick Mahomes.

WHAT A BRILLIANT PLAN!!!!!!

DO IT, JERRY!!!!

Lowly, inferior Eagles fan in disguise. Epitome of pathetic.

Or we could do your suggestion and trade Micah and draft Drake Maye to replace Dak.

You fake Dak fan you.

 

[Blackrain]

Or we could do your suggestion and trade Micah and draft Drake Maye to replace Dak.

You fake Dak fan you.

We already have a first rounder on the roster in Trey Lance what's your feeling on offering Dak 30 mil
Which is about what I feel we can pay him and get all the free agent help he needs to get further in the playoffs.

If he refuses to take it we trade him and Micah and rebuild both lines along with the running back and linebacker positions with young players on their rookie contracts and see if McCarthy is the coach he's supposed to be and can coach up Trey Lance.

If McCarthy fails and we tank then we use our first round pick the following year to draft a quarterback at which point he will have a seasoned offensive line and a running game in front of him so he can do his best along with what should be a top-notch defense.

This plan ensures a nucleus of young players all on their rookie contracts providing the longest window of opportunity to win a super bowl in my opinion.

 

[Blackrain]

I think between Dak Micah and the draft picks that we have this year we could get enough pics to rebuild this team.
We have decent receivers we have a good secondary when diggs comes back.
Mazi could mature and turn into something under Zimmer Tyler Smith is a good young player put a center and another dominant offensive lineman with him along with the top tier running back out of college use the rest for the most enormous athletic defensive tackles we can find on the planet . let Lance run the show for a year.

I mean why did we waste a pick on him if we're not going to try him out.
If we're going to use a high round draft pick on a quarterback let's use a real high round draft pick not 24 let's get something in the top five.
Lance will either be good or he won't at which point if we win four or five games we can draft one of the best quarterbacks coming out of college.

 

[Blitzen]

Hey just so we're clear I'm in no way comparing Roger Staubach to DAk there is no comparison other than the fact it fit the OPs criteria of being drafted later and winning a super bowl in your 30s.

Furthermore I am not on board with paying him mahomes type of money he needs to give us a big hometown discount.

All that said I think he could do better if the front office would do their job and provide him a running game along with getting us some quality defensive tackles and linebackers so we could stop The Run.

We have let our offensive line get very long in the tooth we have also seen what happens when a line gets old and all of a sudden hits the wall.
You could draft a Young quarterback and ruin him behind a bad offensive line it needs to get fixed to protect whatever quarterback we have and give us some type of a run game

All of that help and rebuilding takes years (likely 3-4) to do and by that time-you might need replacements in other areas. I do not suggest that the Cowboys are perfect, or that they gave Dak the perfect squad to compete with. I believe the front office gave Dak everything that they could think of doing that made financial and football capital sense to them. It was not and is not enough.

At this point, the contract you are speaking of needing Dak to take is not feasible with the agent that he has, and how much he counts towards this year’s cap. If they want to lessen his cap hit, Dak’s agent will demand the highest guaranteed money for an NFL QB in history (except for Deshaun Watson). He will get it because Jones has shown he does not care at all about playoff success, but he does care about making the playoffs routinely.

The fans will get more similar seasons from Dak. Beat pretty much every single tier 3 team, win about half the games against tier 2 teams, lose basically every single game against tier 1 teams. Lose early in the playoffs-rinse, lather, repeat.