Vela: Why Anquan Boldin Isn’t Worth A Huge Deal

[TheCount]

Seriously, who didn't already know Fitz was better than Boldin?

 

[AdamJT13]

Well, let's see if it happens Adam.

I don't see them trading him. But if they do, and he goes for less than a first-round pick, I'll be stunned.

 

[AdamJT13]

I don't agree with Joyner's color-coding system for cornerbacks, but I thought I'd take a look at how he came up with Boldin's stats against so-called "red" cornerbacks.

I don't know what Joyner has for which passes to Boldin came against which cornerbacks, but I do have the play-by-play charting done by Football Outsiders. Obviously, Joyner and Football Outsiders might have different defenders noted on different pass attempts (and they might both be wrong), but it's the best I can do.

Anyway, here's what Football Outsiders has for Boldin when he was primarily covered by one of Joyner's "red cornerbacks" --

vs. Phillip Buchanon -- 0-for-0

vs. Ronde Barber -- 1-for-2, 8 yards (other pass "overthrown")

vs. Daven Holly -- 1-for-1, 9 yards

vs. Fernando Bryant -- 1-for-2, 13 yards (other pass "defensed")

vs. Fred Smoot -- 1-for-1, 3 yards (WR screen caught 3 yards behind line of scrimmage)

vs. Shawn Springs -- 2-for-2, 5 yards

vs. Carlos Rogers -- 1-for-1, 6 yards

TOTAL -- 7-for-9, 44 yards (one overthrown, one defensed)
YPA -- 4.88


Considering that Joyner says Boldin averaged 4.9 YPA against "red" cornerbacks, these probably are most or all of the same plays Joyner used.

In addition, there were two plays that Football Outsiders marked as "hole in zone" coverage, with one of Joyner's "red" cornerbacks the closest defender. Both of them came against Tampa Bay's Cover 2 -- an 8-yard catch with Phillip Buchanon nearby and a 24-yarder near Ronde Barber. Those are the types of plays Joyner used to mark as "indirect" coverage and include in his totals, but now he doesn't use them at all.

 

[Champsheart]

I like the idea of this data but truly feel it is not an accurate or fair representation of a WR. There are far too many variables in the passing game to break it down so simply. Why do they not put quality of pass rush as a variable for corner quality. You even have to take into account the kind of coverage a WR does best against. One thing you cannot argue against is consistent success which RW and Boldin continue to exhibit.

Or who the QB is, or are they usually ahead or behind, or do they run more than other teams, or the system they are in, or other players that compliment them, or on and on and on...

These numbers are garbage!

Watch them play, that is all you should need to know !!!

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Or who the QB is, or are they usually ahead or behind, or do they run more than other teams, or the system they are in, or other players that compliment them, or on and on and on...

These numbers are garbage!

Watch them play, that is all you should need to know !!!

Champsheart,

This is funny that you should say this. My Son was here about 5 minutes ago and he and I were just talking about this thread and the rating system used in it.

I told him at the end of the day, the best way to rate WRs is to see what DBs do when they play against them. If a DB is afraid of matching up, then that WR, regardless of the numbers is pretty good. That's the best and final test of how good they are.

Good post Champ.