I believe there is one thing almost every observer of last season's team can agree on:
The Cowboys' defense lost the Packers divisional round game.
Every season has favorites to win it all, or teams that seem like they have a better chance than another team, etc. Sometimes, a particular team seems certain to win it all by consensus and that team end up holding up the trophy in February. Other times, a team gets labeled a dark horse, runs the table, and wins the Super Bowl.
Teams get a lot of perceptions about their chances of winning the ultimate prize from other competing teams, other fans, media, etc. There is one thing all playoff bound teams share despite what the teams themselves, how others think about their chances, or whether their chances are practical or not practical:
Every playoff team believes it can win it all. However, does every playoff team do whatever it takes to win it all?
If NFL history is any indication, an expectation that a rookie quarterback would help win an NFC Divisional round game, the NFC Championship game, and the Super Bowl, can only subtract opportunities for winning all three playoff games. Regardless, the following was the concise euphoric mindset held before November of last year:
- The veteran quarterback has never won a Super Bowl and cannot win one this season.
- The rookie quarterback has never won a Super Bowl but he can win one with this team despite no other rookie quarterback accomplishing the exact same feat in NFL history.
Thus, owner, coaches, players, media and fans who honestly believe Dallas had even the tiniest chance of winning Super Bowl LI thought the odds were
greater with a rookie quarterback than a veteran quarterback.
I've had my share of private conversations with Cowboy and non-Cowboy fans about this topic. Most said, "You must go with the rookie." I asked afterwards, "Did you think the team has/had a chance of winning the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback?" The general reply was, "Yes. Anything can/could happen in the playoffs."
A few replies were different. Some said, "You must go with the rookie quarterback. It is/was his time." So I asked the same question about the team's chances of winning in February and occasionally got the different answer of no.
At least some people are honestly self-realistic about odds no matter how slim the odds are in every conceivable circumstance.