This is merely a projection and labeling it as such is a great way to talk about pre-season rankings.
Use actual data and go from there.
Dallas has had a top-notch pass rush since the moment they drafted an "off-ball linebacker" named Parsons.
The DB crew has been steady to very-good.
Issues in 2022?
Well, the CB rotation was 4 NFL players deep last year. You lost 2 of them so the 3rd CB in games was significantly below NFL average.
DT was a series of guys who will play hard but can be moved out of gaps.
LB was a mishmash of guys that weren't starter quality beyond LVE in the games he can be 80% or better.
So Dallas traded for a another plus CB, drafted a DT and drafted another young LB.
The defense should be better.
But they have got to stay healthy and develop the young kids. The LB corps has to turn over to those young guys soon. LVE doesn't have 1500 more career snaps in him IMO.
I have a love/hate relationship with EPA. It is one of the very best metrics but it is also flawed. It is based on a historical period which did not have EPA and thus the data itself alters the course for what goes forward and what occurs.
What is effective offensively versus a 4-3-4 defense is very different than what is effective versus a 3-2-6 defense.
EPA should make us better and more knowledgeable, but we should also recognize its weaknesses and look to shore those up.
In short moneyball works until everyone copies moneyball.
The value of something can be impacted greatly by how many people utilize the strategy or dataset.
Should you go for it on 4th down? Well a lot of that data is derived form the very infrequent attempts of yore.
Quadruple those attempts and have defenses spend large portions of practice preparing for them? Success rate will likely go way down.
Does that mean it is bad? Not really but the ultimate calculation must be abotu the chance you have of converting and that is based upon play design and talent on field at time versus the opponent.
To tie this altogether, it was much harder to succeed versus this Dallas defense in the first half of last year. Once injuries set in, they were much easier to expose on the edge and adjusting safeties to that threat made them softer inside as well.