TX_Yid said:
Stats can be manipulated to tell you anything you want to hear.
If you want to know the real story, watch the teams play.
It's not that I don't believe that you can learn something valuable from watching the teams play, but to just out right dismiss all statistical anaylsis is pretty far off too.
Stat's don't lie... and they don't say anything you want them too. Stat's are a valuable tool to find trends and coorelations. The trick is for the reader to understand which stats are important and coorelate strongly to the actual result claimed.
If you think that DCs across the league don't run extensive statistical sheets on each player they face you are crazy. I'm sure they know exactly what routes and types of coverages they have faced. What do they like to run on third down? Where do they throw most timing routes?
As for this discussion we are interested in wins, or rather predictive wins. So if you take each of the values we have discussed (yards per game, points per game, turnover differential, time of possesssion, average starting position, ect...) and you compare them to every win in say the last 5 years, which stat is around the most often on the winning team?
So comparing my stats to that of SkinsandTerps, Yards given up per game does not in fact have a strong coorelation to wins or losses, however turnovers does. That's why it's a more valuable stat, and why they NFL's ranking of offenses and deffenses on just yards is stupid.
By the way how many times over the last two years has BP brought up some stat in his press conferences as something we need to improve upon? I'm not the only fan.