Twitter: Scott Pioli, former NFL GM, three major consequences of 2021 projected cap decrease

[ESisback]

Dak got 31 million for one year! He can afford to wait! If that was me, I’d turn most of that money into cash and spread it around. Who knows what the economy’s gonna do, so I’d set myself up to live off grid.

I think it’ll be a mixed bag—some will be smart and set themselves up to endure, while others will panic and grab the first offer.

 

[ESisback]

For the rank and file player this is true.
But it is ALWAYS true.
Average NFL players have always lived for the guarantee.
Because most contracts after the rookie deal aren't being completed.
Those big numbers at end are being lopped off.

The issue is in this thread people want to extrapolate what Pioli said to franchise QBs and it doesn't and won't apply.

It also doesn't factor that this is a 1 year blip on the radar.
And that cheapskate owners who are overly concerned here haven't really been the kind of guys to hand out massive restructure paychecks previously anyway.
That list almost certainly will grow but it won't be league-wide or close to league-wide.
Teams who see benefit of playoff runs and money made will spend.
Their spending has largely been rewarded with increased revenue.

Good points.

 

[gjkoeppen]

If this holds, it could create a lot of good/quality players being cut, creating a bonanza 2021 free-agent market/opportunity. It's also why we'll see min 2021 draft trades IMO. Picks are way too valuable, even lower rounds.


https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-s...hree-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease
2021 NFL salary cap conundrum: Three major consequences of projected decrease
Published: Dec 01, 2020 at 07:57 AM

Scott Pioli
NFL Media Analyst

Unless these cap casualty players take very LARGE pay cuts, there won't be that big free agent signings because there will be less cap space and teams will more likely try to sign and keep the best players and count more on getting cheaper rookie talent.
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[jterrell]

Mahomes deal is basically a 5-year-deal though where they have to extend him again after to fix the cap situation and so he will get to cash in again.

And they extended Pat 2 years early.
HOU extended Watson 2 years early.
Wentz/Goff extended early.

EVERYONE With a cap brain understands DAL failing was not extending Dak early and leveraging those insanely low cost rookie deal seasons to reduce cap hits across 6 years for a 4 year deal that virtually every QB gets.

What Dak's agent did was COMPLETELY and UTTERLY REASONABLE and PROFESSIONAL.

It was neither bad advice nor gouging. It was common sense.

Not a single person (with a brain) on this thread would work out a bad work contract then say it's cool pay me 75% of what my coworkers make because it's a big raise to me.
No you'd say hey I am ranked top of my level in every review versus my peers and expect to be paid at the top of the salary scale for my position.
We can settle in the middle but I'll be looking around for other opportunities.

 

[gjkoeppen]

I don't trust the Jones and this Front Office's ability to properly assess and address the talent deficiencies on this roster. They've proven over the last 25 years to constantly ignore glaring needs and a stubbornness in giving multiple chances to players they have anointed (overpaid and overdrafted).

However, one thing I will give the Jones' credit for is what I call "creative financing"

If they can sign Dak to a similarly-structured (but lower) contract to what Mahomes signed and do their typical restructures (Martin, Smith, Collins, Amari, Zeke, etc), they have a real opportunity to add significant talent in both the draft and free agency this off-season.

The issue will be, will they continue to throw money at washed up free agents (HaHa Clinton-Dix, Dontari Poe) or will they sign players who can actually improve the team (Justin Simmons, Dalvin Tomlinson).

If you want to question the last 5 years that's one thing but the last 25 is just foolishness. Jone3s spared no expense back in the 90's putting together the best and deepest roster, many of those backups ended up as starters once the cap started. Now when the cap started the Cowboys had the biggest payroll BY FAR and because of that not only did they have to let players go in free agency they had to renegotiate several contracts which put money as dead money in following year. They had to do this just to be able to hang on to some of their core players and have money for the draft. Because of this they had to renegotiate contracts every year causing a vicious cycle that left them with just enough money for core players and draft choices. They Cowboys never had cap space to go out and get top tier free agent because of what started with those Super Bowl teams. This went on for 20 years until Stephen started doing the contracts and he stopped doing multiple renegotiating contracts and let some free agent players walk and decided to rely more on the draft. He got lucky that year getting Prescott and Elliott in that draft. After not adding tons to to dead money the Cowboys finally got some breathing room on the cap and with the change of the rule for just this season, the Cowboys will be carrying over about 25 mil to next years cap.

Now if you haven't heard the cap is going to be less next year so there isn't going to be a bunch of big name free agents signed, at least not here because they still have to sign Prescott whether you like it or not. As far as restructing contracts, that's what got them in trouble for 20 years and it also takes the players to agree to it.
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[jterrell]

Unless these cap casualty players take very LARGE pay cuts, there won't be that big free agent signings because there will be less cap space and teams will more likely try to sign and keep the best players and count more on getting cheaper rookie talent.
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Not really.
If teams like the Eagles/Saints dump a lot of contracts the good players will be signed.
It also won't be for super cheap. Because there will still be plenty of teams saying hey I can get this guy in for a very cheap year 1 cost.
NFL teams can guaranteed 2nd and 3rd years of deals or spread out signing bonuses to make a guy counting 2-3M on the cap well paid in 3-4 years.

What do I mean?
Marshon Lattimore is a good Saints CB. He's likely to be extended but it might be tough. Spotrac says his market value is 15M per year.
He is owed 1 year and ~11M.
Saints can release him and save 11M!!
The badly need that 11M but he has real value....
So let's say they do release him.

He's worth 15M per.

DAL badly need a starting CB right? Let's say they magically hold pick 4 still.
They LOVE Sewell. But they need a CB BAD BAD.

What could they offer a FA Lattimore?

How about this deal?

Year 1 15M SB 1M base. --cost 4M cap hit.
Year 2 20M roster bonus. year 2 3M base. --cost cap hit 11M
Year 3 11M base --cap cost 19M
Year 4 13M base --cap cost 21M
year 5 15M base --cap cost 23M

78m deal. 15.6M AAV.
Exactly what Spotrac says
You guarantee first 2 seasons plus all roster bonuses. --39M fully GTD.
Guarantee year 3 base salary 5th day of 2nd season. --so virtual GTE of another 11M to hit 50M

Could be out of deal in 3 years or more likely restructures that 3rd year cap hit down to bonus reducing year 3 cap hit to like 11M.

It is easy to pay guys without it hitting your cap year 1.
Or even abusing your pocket book year 1 provided you guarantee future seasons.

The NFL is and always be a talent acquisition business.

 

[jterrell]

Who might be punished by this??
Let's look internally.

The Cowboys really only have 1 guy: Tyron Smith.
Dallas could cut him and his 10.5M base and spread his dead money post June 1st to save significant jack.
If they draft Sewell they "may" do that.

BUT if Tyron Smith hits the street he likely get MORE than 10M in free agency. Likely more like 25M in total guaranteed money.
So while what Pioli says makes sense it makes far more sense for veteran-laden teams who might need to rebuild for cap or talent/age purposes.
See the Pats/Eagles/Saints.

Eagles could cut Zach Ertz if they can't find a trade taker.
Pats could cut Donta Hightower.
Saints have a lot of guys they could cut because they are so far upside down on the cap next year and presumable lose the franchise QB.

 

[gjkoeppen]

And they extended Pat 2 years early.
HOU extended Watson 2 years early.
Wentz/Goff extended early.

EVERYONE With a cap brain understands DAL failing was not extending Dak early and leveraging those insanely low cost rookie deal seasons to reduce cap hits across 6 years for a 4 year deal that virtually every QB gets.

What Dak's agent did was COMPLETELY and UTTERLY REASONABLE and PROFESSIONAL.

It was neither bad advice nor gouging. It was common sense.

Not a single person (with a brain) on this thread would work out a bad work contract then say it's cool pay me 75% of what my coworkers make because it's a big raise to me.
No you'd say hey I am ranked top of my level in every review versus my peers and expect to be paid at the top of the salary scale for my position.
We can settle in the middle but I'll be looking around for other opportunities.

What funny is Todd France, Prescott's agent, was fired from CAA because how he handled Prescott negotiations because he didn't negotiate, he just demanded the same thing over and over.. He didn't return calls from Stephen for a couple of weeks at a time, he told his secretary if Jones calls to tell him France wasn't in even though he was. So tell us again how reasonable and professional France was. According to your thinking that Prescott was offered only 75% of what his coworker get must mean every QB should be making the same amount which there isn't anyone who will agree with that The Cowboys offered Prescott a contract that would have paid him over TEN TIMES more than what he was making and there are few people in the real world that wouldn't take ten times more than what they are currently making.
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[jazzcat22]

If this holds, it could create a lot of good/quality players being cut, creating a bonanza 2021 free-agent market/opportunity. It's also why we'll see min 2021 draft trades IMO. Picks are way too valuable, even lower rounds.


https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-s...hree-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease
2021 NFL salary cap conundrum: Three major consequences of projected decrease
Published: Dec 01, 2020 at 07:57 AM

Scott Pioli
NFL Media Analyst

Will teams try to restructure contracts, push money out further, but the player gets money in a signing bonus.
I see that happening before wholesale cuts.
A player still gets upfront money and plays a few years, makes the same amount. As opposed to being released, then no team wants to sign them unless a deal that makes them the same amount.

Then in a few years, if things are back to normal, new TV contracts, teams could still keep them as the cap increases more than projected.As opposed to taking the cap hit if released.
I think FA as we know it will not be as good. Not for several years.

 

[ESisback]

Maybe for 21 and 22. Everyone knows that the cap is still going to explode with the network deals.

The revenue issue is a short-term one, not a long-term one, and mid-tier vets are already being priced out all over the place.

HOPING things return to normal...

 

[gjkoeppen]

Not really.
If teams like the Eagles/Saints dump a lot of contracts the good players will be signed.
It also won't be for super cheap. Because there will still be plenty of teams saying hey I can get this guy in for a very cheap year 1 cost.
NFL teams can guaranteed 2nd and 3rd years of deals or spread out signing bonuses to make a guy counting 2-3M on the cap well paid in 3-4 years.

What do I mean?
Marshon Lattimore is a good Saints CB. He's likely to be extended but it might be tough. Spotrac says his market value is 15M per year.
He is owed 1 year and ~11M.
Saints can release him and save 11M!!
The badly need that 11M but he has real value....
So let's say they do release him.

He's worth 15M per.

DAL badly need a starting CB right? Let's say they magically hold pick 4 still.
They LOVE Sewell. But they need a CB BAD BAD.

What could they offer a FA Lattimore?

How about this deal?

Year 1 15M SB 1M base. --cost 4M cap hit.
Year 2 20M roster bonus. year 2 3M base. --cost cap hit 11M
Year 3 11M base --cap cost 19M
Year 4 13M base --cap cost 21M
year 5 15M base --cap cost 23M

78m deal. 15.6M AAV.
Exactly what Spotrac says
You guarantee first 2 seasons plus all roster bonuses. --39M fully GTD.
Guarantee year 3 base salary 5th day of 2nd season. --so virtual GTE of another 11M to hit 50M

Could be out of deal in 3 years or more likely restructures that 3rd year cap hit down to bonus reducing year 3 cap hit to like 11M.

It is easy to pay guys without it hitting your cap year 1.
Or even abusing your pocket book year 1 provided you guarantee future seasons.

The NFL is and always be a talent acquisition business.

Here's the problem with you hypothetical. You seem to forget that first the cap will be less next year and you seem to think that what that cap is they can just go do deals like that but you seem to forget that players currently on the roster that still have contracts will take up most of that cap space and then there's signing Prescott. Hypothetical are just that and aren't real life. We can all make up fairy tale scenarios but that doesn't make it happen in real life.
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[KingintheNorth]

Jone3s spared no expense back in the 90's putting together the best and deepest roster,

Jimmy, not Jerry

Because of this they had to renegotiate contracts every year causing a vicious cycle that left them with just enough money for core players and draft choices

Those early post-Jimmy years the draft results were extremely poor. No need to re-sign guys lie Shante Carver and Dwayne Goodrich when they were out of the league before their first contract expired.

This went on for 20 years

No such thing as 20 years of cap issues due to contracts from the Super Bowl years. AT most. a bad cap contract impacts a team for 3 years. It was several bad contract decisions for several years. This idea that the Cowboys were in 20 years of cap hell from the 92,93, and 95 Super bowl teams is simply not true.

Cowboys never had cap space to go out and get top tier free agent

Terrell Owens, Brandon Carr, Greg Hardy? Not to mention the huge new deals they gave to Joey Galloway and Roy WIlliams when tehy acquired them.

As far as restructing contracts, that's what got them in trouble for 20 years and it also takes the players to agree to it.

Restructuring is a relatively new cap workaround and several teams are utilizing it. We didn't restructure 20 years ago. We overpaid (typically huge signing bonuses) our players and the end of their contracts were too high versus the caliber of player they were at that point.

The Cowboys really like this newer strategy and have signed several contracts recently designed to be restructured (Tyron Smith, Amari Cooper are prime examples).

Amari Cooper's 2021 contract is a $22M cap hit, $20M of which is his base salary and guaranteed. There is zero chance that contract will not be restructured to free up cap room. Of course the player will agree to it, because he will get most of that $20M guaranteed all at once in March versus divided up over 17 weeks from September to December. In the end he's still getting $20M next year, he just gets more of it earlier. This is why both the Cowboys and the players they sign like the restructure,

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

And they extended Pat 2 years early.
HOU extended Watson 2 years early.
Wentz/Goff extended early.

EVERYONE With a cap brain understands DAL failing was not extending Dak early and leveraging those insanely low cost rookie deal seasons to reduce cap hits across 6 years for a 4 year deal that virtually every QB gets.

What Dak's agent did was COMPLETELY and UTTERLY REASONABLE and PROFESSIONAL.

It was neither bad advice nor gouging. It was common sense.

Not a single person (with a brain) on this thread would work out a bad work contract then say it's cool pay me 75% of what my coworkers make because it's a big raise to me.
No you'd say hey I am ranked top of my level in every review versus my peers and expect to be paid at the top of the salary scale for my position.
We can settle in the middle but I'll be looking around for other opportunities.

I'm sorry, are we seriously comparing Dak Prescott to Patrick Mahomes? Seriously? Like saying that I should buy a Fiat at the price of a Ferrari.

 

[jterrell]

What funny is Todd France, Prescott's agent, was fired from CAA because how he handled Prescott negotiations because he didn't negotiate, he just demanded the same thing over and over.. He didn't return calls from Stephen for a couple of weeks at a time, he told his secretary if Jones calls to tell him France wasn't in even though he was. So tell us again how reasonable and professional France was. According to your thinking that Prescott was offered only 75% of what his coworker get must mean every QB should be making the same amount which there isn't anyone who will agree with that The Cowboys offered Prescott a contract that would have paid him over TEN TIMES more than what he was making and there are few people in the real world that wouldn't take ten times more than what they are currently making.
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My dude.. roflmao...
France went to Athletes First. They had the most first and second rounders last year, breaking an NFL draft record.
He didn't handle it poorly.
Stephen Jones has a rep of playing hardball and trying to flex guys into bad deals.
EVERYONE IN THE UNIVERSE knew Stephen had zero leverage it showed.

Who is Dak's agent now?

 

[jterrell]

I'm sorry, are we seriously comparing Dak Prescott to Patrick Mahomes? Seriously? Like saying that I should buy a Fiat at the price of a Ferrari.

I am the world's largest Pat Mahomes fan.
He is easily the best player in the NFL but QB markets are still about who sets the bars and who's up next.
EVERY good QB gets extended early because it's common sense.
The money for Watson and the money Lamar Jackson will get go up after Mahomes signed.
So does Dak's.

Dallas knew Dak was good and waited largely because they knew they might punt the coaching staff.
Stephen is a bad GM. It's really that simple.
He got abused by Zeke and DLaw's agents.
He is getting abused now by Todd France.

And it is self-abuse in many of those cases.
He didn't need or have to force a franchise tag year for DLaw and the same for Dak.
It was stupid as anyone with a brain understands.

 

[cern]

Dak got 31 million for one year! He can afford to wait! If that was me, I’d turn most of that money into cash and spread it around. Who knows what the economy’s gonna do, so I’d set myself up to live off grid.

I think it’ll be a mixed bag—some will be smart and set themselves up to endure, while others will panic and grab the first offer.

that strategy will make the irs very happy as they swoop down and take more of a third of your money.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

The issue will be, will they continue to throw money at washed up free agents (HaHa Clinton-Dix, Dontari Poe) or will they sign players who can actually improve the team (Justin Simmons, Dalvin Tomlinson).

The history isn't good in that area...

 

[Loso86]

No one should ever pass on that type of money no matter how much you "think" you are worth.

BC then things like Pandemics and broken legs happen.

That sounds like a person who doesnt know self worth my G. And o dont think it was the money that slowed progress

 

[jterrell]

Jimmy, not Jerry

Those early post-Jimmy years the draft results were extremely poor. No need to re-sign guys lie Shante Carver and Dwayne Goodrich when they were out of the league before their first contract expired.

No such thing as 20 years of cap issues due to contracts from the Super Bowl years. AT most. a bad cap contract impacts a team for 3 years. It was several bad contract decisions for several years. This idea that the Cowboys were in 20 years of cap hell from the 92,93, and 95 Super bowl teams is simply not true.

Terrell Owens, Brandon Carr, Greg Hardy? Not to mention the huge new deals they gave to Joey Galloway and Roy WIlliams when tehy acquired them.


Restructuring is a relatively new cap workaround and several teams are utilizing it. We didn't restructure 20 years ago. We overpaid (typically huge signing bonuses) our players and the end of their contracts were too high versus the caliber of player they were at that point.

The Cowboys really like this newer strategy and have signed several contracts recently designed to be restructured (Tyron Smith, Amari Cooper are prime examples).

Amari Cooper's 2021 contract is a $22M cap hit, $20M of which is his base salary and guaranteed. There is zero chance that contract will not be restructured to free up cap room. Of course the player will agree to it, because he will get most of that $20M guaranteed all at once in March versus divided up over 17 weeks from September to December. In the end he's still getting $20M next year, he just gets more of it earlier. This is why both the Cowboys and the players they sign like the restructure,

Jimmy Johnson never signed a single contract.
No one alive actually believes he did.
Jimmy identified talent and ran the drafts.
But the reason he traded Walker off was because Jerry wouldn't pay Walker "QB money".

The only player Jimmy threw a fit and got paid was Emmitt.
Dallas was 0-2 and Jimmy was like PAY HIM NOW. So Jerry did.

Jerry was more than happy to pay players after Jimmy left.
Many he overpaid out of loyalty.
It crushed us when the cap hits came.
All our depth signed elsewhere and we were left with an aging roster of overpaid has-beens.

 

[ESisback]

And they extended Pat 2 years early.
HOU extended Watson 2 years early.
Wentz/Goff extended early.

EVERYONE With a cap brain understands DAL failing was not extending Dak early and leveraging those insanely low cost rookie deal seasons to reduce cap hits across 6 years for a 4 year deal that virtually every QB gets.

What Dak's agent did was COMPLETELY and UTTERLY REASONABLE and PROFESSIONAL.

It was neither bad advice nor gouging. It was common sense.

Not a single person (with a brain) on this thread would work out a bad work contract then say it's cool pay me 75% of what my coworkers make because it's a big raise to me.
No you'd say hey I am ranked top of my level in every review versus my peers and expect to be paid at the top of the salary scale for my position.
We can settle in the middle but I'll be looking around for other opportunities.

That’s all well and good, but a lot of people are dealing with a tiny FRACTION of that money, and are totally freaked about potential disasters awaiting us economically.

I agree that the FO fumbled the ball. They should have extended him earlier, but the picture keeps changing, especially this past year.

75% of 12.50 an hour is one thing. 75% of 40 million is quite another. Tough times will make most people place less importance on pride. There’s ALWAYS gonna be less talented or deserving people making less—life’s not fair, but if I had a choice between 33.5 million a year plus endorsements in a tax free state playing ball for America’s Team...