5. Dak Prescott – Tier 2.
Did you know? Only 5.3 percent of Dak Prescott’s attempts were screens, the second-lowest rate in the league.
If you thought Dak Prescott played like a superstar as a rookie but was awful during his second season, you’re likely conflating quarterback evaluation with evaluating the offense as a whole. Everything on the Cowboys offense got significantly worse in 2017. The offensive line got weaker at left guard and right tackle with new players, the center’s performances dropped off and the left tackle was hurt. Jason Witten was even slower at tight end. Dez Bryant spent the season struggling to get open then had a monumental number of drops when he did get open. Ezekiel Elliott was out of shape then out of the league for six weeks through suspension.
Everything was worse except for the quarterback. The quarterback actually got better.
Prescott wasn’t a star during his rookie season. The Cowboys should have gone back to Tony Romo. But he grew in his second season. He was one of the most accurate passers in the league, ranking fourth in the league with a 60.2 depth-adjusted accuracy percentage. That was while throwing to a group of receivers who couldn’t separate and offered limited catch radiuses.
Prescott wasn’t just checking down either. He threw 58.2 percent of his passes further than five yards downfield, the seventh-highest rate in the league. More significantly, he threw the second-highest rate of passes into the 1-20 yard range. 77.2 percent of the Cowboys passing game existed within those parameters. It was the opposite of a short and shot play offense.
Throwing into the 1-20 yard range is tougher to do than throwing the ball short and deep. In the Cowboys offense it meant an over-reliance on isolated routes with straight dropbacks where the quarterback had to manage the pocket. 29 quarterbacks used play action or screens more often than Prescott did. He wasn’t throwing into distorted coverages or making quick throws into the flat that gained big yardage. He was responsible for throwing receivers open and carrying an offense that wasn’t built to work without an all star supporting cast.
It was the same offense that Garrett ran during Prescott’s rookie season, but without the incredible pass protection and dominant running game, and with a worse group of receivers, the quarterback never had a real chance.
What really stood out from Prescott was his acumen. He showed off more command of his offense during his second season. Making successful audibles and adjustments to spring receivers open. That was on the occasions when he had opportunities to do so. Jason Garrett’s refusal to adjust to his personnel or to his opponents meant that Prescott often appeared to be the only one on the Dallas offense who was trying to make the offense function smoother.
Although the numbers weren’t there, Prescott’s precision as a passer, his intelligence as a quarterback and his physical skill set to function inside and outside of structure were obvious. The Cowboys have a lot of problems, the quarterback isn’t one.
