Dak vs. Romo - Deep passing

Irvin88_4life

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There was a time or two that Aikman, himself, couldn't tell you if his pass was complete...he was on the ground nearly unconscious. The example I remember was, I think, against the Cards and he got the crown of a helmet to his chin right as he threw the ball. Think it went for about 84 yds (and a TD), but he never saw it.
He did get blasted a ton. My point was you can't tell everything from a guy in 2 years. Most on this site would have ran Aikman off the way they are doing Dak even though his numbers are better
 

Swagger

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I watched the next to last episode of All or Nothing. The one where Dak got hit on the hand by the guy's face mask. After he came back I started watching his passes. Then it made me think of his season.

A season in which he had:

two less than perfect left guards
the best left tackle in the game out at times
the number one receiver dropping balls
defenses doubling up on his statistically best receiver from the year before
his offensive rookie of the year miss six games
a defense that struggled at stopping the run
a defense that could not cover to stop Rodgers at the end of a game
a defensive end/tackle missing four games
teams changing how they face the cowboys now that they know Dak

I'm certain the list goes on

And with all this I saw Dak being a vocal leader, making good decisions, throwing the ball with authority when he had time, and keeping a positive mental attitude that he preached to the team in the huddle.

This was a seconds year player at the most difficult position in the game, with his security blanket (Romo) gone.

I'm not making excuses. What I am saying is perhaps the fan base needs to take a breath and remember this guy is starting his third year. I know we are all starved for success. The jury hasn't brought back a verdict on Dak as yet. Just sayin'.

So in summary Prescott faced what the vast majority of other QBs faced in the league for the majority of their career last season...

How can people compare Romo with Prescott with two completely different teams?

In terms of offensive line, running back, #1 receiver (except TO time), Tight End and slot receivers Prescott had in the 2016 season than what Romo had except for 2014 would be like comparing Lance Stroll driving a Mercedes compared with Fernando Alonso driving a Sauber - which one is most likely to produce better results?

Dear me.
 

Swagger

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We just have to hope that the defense has improved enough and that the running game can consistently carry the team next season.
 

Galian Beast

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The only thing that was being compared in the OP was the frequency of passes thrown by distance and their completion percentage, showing that the lack of deep passes (and the lack of passes thrown behind the LOS) is most likely a function of the offensive system and/or the receivers and not any particular preference or abilities of the two quarterbacks.




That's true in general, but it's misleading. Quarterbacks tend to have greater success in games that they win than they do in games that they lose -- and winning or losing typically depends on how much success they have (especially compared with how much success the opposing quarterback has). Quarterbacks also tend to have greater success against weaker opponents (making those games more likely to win) than they do against stronger opponents (making those games more likely to lose).

But quarterbacks that win a game typically are MOST effective throwing when they are trailing (107.4 passer rating over the past five years), followed by when they are tied (100.9), and LEAST effective when they have the lead (99.6). Likewise, quarterbacks that lose a game typically are MOST effective when they are trailing (77.5 passer rating), followed by when they are tied (75.1), and LEAST effective when they have the lead (70.6). So as you say, comparing apples to apples (the same quarterbacks in the same games), quarterbacks actually tend to have greater success throwing while trailing than while leading.

In other words, playing with a lead DOES NOT "make" a quarterback more effective -- on the contrary, having success in the first place (whether ahead, tied or trailing) is most likely WHY the quarterback is in the lead.


You've overthought this. Playing with a lead absolutely makes a significant impact on QB play. A QB playing with a lead can take what the defense gives them. A QB playing with a lead can run a balanced offense that has the defense off balance rather than pinning back to rush the QB.

Romo has one of the highest QB ratings for a QB in games lost. The reality is that, he carried this team as far as he could, but most years this team was absolute garbage.
 

Galian Beast

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It's not a comparison of who is better. The claim is that Dak just dinks and dunks the ball and doesn't throw the ball downfield. The comparison is to show that we throw the ball down the field about the same rate with Dak as we did with Romo and the completion %'s aren't that much different.

A pass isn't necessarily a pass.

Scenario A

A QB throws 1 pass for 3 yards.

Scenario B

A QB throws 1 pass for 20 yards.

The pass in Scenario B is better right?

What if I told you that Scenario A was 4th and 3 on goal line and that Scenario B was 3rd and 30...

Extreme examples, but the reality is that statistics alone without the context behind them don't mean much.
 

Super_Kazuya

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And to address this stat...

2016 - 30th in the league in total pass attempts
2017 - 29th in the league in total pass attempts.

Of course we are going to be low in the # of pass attempts in the 20 yard range. We're low in pass attempts period. I guess that is what happens when the following occurs:

1. We run the ball so much
2. We chew a lot of clock
3. Our defense allows the other offense to chew clock too
But in 2014 we ran the ball even more and threw the ball less than in 2015 or 2016. Did they also finish 31st out of 32 teams in 2014? Nope. They finished 11th and remarkably, tied for 1st in the NFL with 17 TD passes over 20 yards... despite the fact that the Cowboys were 31st in pass attempts that year. Now that’s impressive.
 

Aviano90

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A pass isn't necessarily a pass.

Scenario A

A QB throws 1 pass for 3 yards.

Scenario B

A QB throws 1 pass for 20 yards.

The pass in Scenario B is better right?

What if I told you that Scenario A was 4th and 3 on goal line and that Scenario B was 3rd and 30...

Extreme examples, but the reality is that statistics alone without the context behind them don't mean much.

Agree with your point, I just don't understand how it is relevant to claims our QB only dinks and dunks and won't throw the ball down field.
 

Galian Beast

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More statistics of note:

Dallas Cowboys average defensive ranking (ppg) in 2016-2017 is 9th

Dallas Cowboys average defensive rankings (ppg) from 2006-2005 is 18.3
 

Galian Beast

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Agree with your point, I just don't understand how it is relevant to claims our QB only dinks and dunks and won't throw the ball down field.

To best address that you would need to look at percentage and total of throws by air distance.
 

Aviano90

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But in 2014 we ran the ball even more and threw the ball less than in 2015 or 2016. Did they also finish 31st out of 32 teams in 2014? Nope. They finished 11th and remarkably, tied for 1st in the NFL with 17 TD passes over 20 yards... despite the fact that the Cowboys were 31st in pass attempts that year. Now that’s impressive.
Yes, that is very impressive indeed. So to make our young QB look horrible, we need to take a seasoned vets arguable best year to do it.
 

Aviano90

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To best address that you would need to look at percentage and total of throws by air distance.
That is what is addressed in the first post. The raw numbers show Dak is throwing the ball down the field about the same rate as Romo did for his career, despite all the claims he only dinks and dunks the ball.
 

TwoDeep3

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So in summary Prescott faced what the vast majority of other QBs faced in the league for the majority of their career last season...

How can people compare Romo with Prescott with two completely different teams?

In terms of offensive line, running back, #1 receiver (except TO time), Tight End and slot receivers Prescott had in the 2016 season than what Romo had except for 2014 would be like comparing Lance Stroll driving a Mercedes compared with Fernando Alonso driving a Sauber - which one is most likely to produce better results?

Dear me.
I guess you missed the part where Dak was in his second year with a sieve for a line at times and a knucklehead for a #1 WR and the bell cow back out for six. Not exactly what every other quarterback experienced. Is it?
 

Undefeated

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Year 3. Are we still comparing? I thought you guys were sick of the comparisons?

Romo year 3 36 TDs 4200yards. You're up Dak.
Those are his 2007 stats, Romo was signed in 2003. So his 3rd year he didn't start, but his 3rd season starting he threw for 3,448 yards, 26 tds and 14 ints in 13 games.
 

Galian Beast

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That is what is addressed in the first post. The raw numbers show Dak is throwing the ball down the field about the same rate as Romo did for his career, despite all the claims he only dinks and dunks the ball.

No you're looking at total yards passes went regardless if it was YAC or AY
 

Galian Beast

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I guess you missed the part where Dak was in his second year with a sieve for a line at times and a knucklehead for a #1 WR and the bell cow back out for six. Not exactly what every other quarterback experienced. Is it?

Cough Torrin Tucker...

Some people are brand new...

Romo made Austin, Crayton, and Robinson look like world stars.
 

AdamJT13

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You've overthought this. Playing with a lead absolutely makes a significant impact on QB play. A QB playing with a lead can take what the defense gives them. A QB playing with a lead can run a balanced offense that has the defense off balance rather than pinning back to rush the QB.

Playing with a lead might change the circumstances or the approach, but it certainly doesn't make a quarterback more successful, and the facts bear that out. If that were actually the case, quarterbacks would be more successful within the same game when they're ahead than they're when behind -- but the opposite is true. They'd also be more successful within the same game when ahead than they they're tied -- but again, the opposite is true.
 

HungryLion

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But in 2014 we ran the ball even more and threw the ball less than in 2015 or 2016. Did they also finish 31st out of 32 teams in 2014? Nope. They finished 11th and remarkably, tied for 1st in the NFL with 17 TD passes over 20 yards... despite the fact that the Cowboys were 31st in pass attempts that year. Now that’s impressive.


Romo was also a veteran of how many years? Romo was at his peak and playing his best football ever.

Just saying. It’s silly to think Dak is a finishe product. Most QB’s continue improving into their 3rd year and well beyond.
 
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