CFZ A Possible Explanation of Why Dak Played Jekyll and Hyde (and Hope I Find)

[CowboyoWales]

Like I said, none of them were bi-polar during their playoff/super bowl runs. They got hot.
But I agree they were all bi-polar for the majority of their careers. Eli happened to get hot twice, but his lifetime stats were mediocre.

I doubt Dak's mood balance is a factor, however, as a (functioning) bipolar suffer I'd look into his reaction and coping mechanism when anxiety intensifies in the most stressful situations and how that effects his performance.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Neither side of the extremes is trying to seriously seek truth, or to argue their points honestly. Lots of ego, wild declarations and foot stomping.

I've sure done it myself plenty here over the years. I've embarrassed myself, and will likely do so again.

I agree the answer is a number concentric elements, but someone on here actually complained that Dak Haters always focused on the negative elements.....then when asked what the issue is they mask the issues with the generic...'we accept he isn't elite'.
Without focusing on his (and the whole Offenses) weaknesses we can't improve.

 

[T-RO]

Passes to Elliott belong in the Good Dak group: 75% completion rate with 0 interceptions.

My apologies I missed your post previously.

4.2 yards per play production just doesn't cut it for passing plays. Elliott was useless as a receiver in 2022.

 

[MyFairLady]

Elliott was useless as a receiver in 2022.

That is putting it kindly.

 

[T-RO]

The more I look at this the more I realize that all it says is Dak was better when he threw it to the two best players.

The drop off from the top four receiving targets was swift and severe.

Do you think other top teams had such severe gradients? (I'm open to exploring).

 

[T-RO]

And this follows that they only brought back one guy from the "naughty" list. Gallup who is returning with a full off-season after major injury.

Yes...Schultz, Elliott, Brown gone (for now). A healthier Gallup gets to show he can up his game.

 

[MyFairLady]

The drop off from the top four receiving targets was swift and severe.

Do you think other top teams had such severe gradients? (I'm open to exploring).

Perhaps not that severe but I would say there is definitely a drop off from throwing to the best players to throwing to the worst players. I would also say that better QBs are better able to incorporate all of their players into the offense. Dak has his strengths but I do not believe they include running an offense that features multiple weapons or running an offense that features multiple reads. Dak likes it simple and the stats seem to bear that out.

The sad part is that the team knew exactly what to do with Dak from the very start. He had his very best year as a rookie. He was both reliable and efficient. He was fantastic. Every year that passes we pay him more and more money and move father and farther away from what he is good at.

 

[Captain-Crash]

The more I look at this the more I realize that all it says is Dak was better when he threw it to the two best players. Pretty sure this analysis would hold true for any QB. Honestly looking for help for what conclusions I am supposed to draw from all of this. Again I appreciate the work and think it is interesting. Color me confused.

get down on your knees and worship the dak. sheesh, hater

 

[Captain-Crash]

The way you act like the evidence supports what you have been saying is comical and the more you say it, the claim becomes true. We all know you said Kurt Warner didn’t know what he was talking about when the majority of video analysis was calling out Dak, then he, psd you, suddenly needed to be out OC because he criticized a couple of Moore’s plays, even though if one did a breakdown Dak would be the one called out the most. Then you tried to snooze around it by saying your objection was that Warner previously was just blaming Dak and wasn’t being fair. Now you are saying that it’s because Dak didn’t have the weapons and thats what Warner was saying, even though Warner was basically saying Dak shouldn’t have thrown out to Lamb and so on. Comical, since Warner also did videos last year criticizing Dak when he “had the weapons”..

Kurt didn't have a spreadsheet, so he was wrong.

 

[MyFairLady]

get down on your knees and worship the dak. sheesh, hater

LOL thanks for the clarification. Will do.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Like I said, none of them were bi-polar during their playoff/super bowl runs. They got hot.
But I agree they were all bi-polar for the majority of their careers. Eli happened to get hot twice, but his lifetime stats were mediocre.

They were but nobody cares when he got two rings.

 

[MyFairLady]

Kurt Warner is basically a jedi master at the art of the QB. If he says that he does not understand why advanced elements of an NFL offense are not being implemented I believe him. There are then only 2 explanations either Kellen Moore is either too dumb to implement them or Dak is too dumb to execute them. Kellen Moore may be a lot of things but he is not too dumb to implement anything.

Dak is a great QB but he has strengths and weaknesses. When we lean on his strengths we are fantastic. We are both efficient and repeatable. When we lean on his weaknesses we fold.

 

[Stash]

Breakdown

What was your determining factor for splitting the players into two distinct categories?

 

[T-RO]

What was your determining factor for splitting the players into two distinct categories?

There was a huge QBR rating gap with Dak throwing to 1-4 vs 5-8.

Dak Prescott 2022 QB Rating per Targeted Receiver...


Ceedee Lamb, 111.8 QBR
75-103, 953 Yards, 9.3 Yards per Attempt 7 TDs 3 INT

Tony Pollard, 122.5 QBR
31-40, 296 yards, 7.4 Yards Per Attempt, 3 TDs, 0 INT

Jake Ferguson, 132.2 QBR
11-11, 93 yards, 8.5 Yards Per Attempt , 1 TD, 0 INT

T.Y. Hilton, 110.83 QBR
7-10, 121 yards, 12.1 Yards Per Attempt, 0 TDs, 0 INT,

---

Ezekiel Elliott, 82.03 QBR
12-16, 67 yards, 4.2 Yards Per Attempt, 0 TDs, 0 INT

Dalton Schultz, 81.2 QBR
52-78, 541 Yards, 6.9 Yards Per Attempt, 5 TDs, 5 INT

Michael Gallup, 73.8 QBR
31-58, 338 Yards, 5.8 Yards Per Attempt, 3 TDs, 2 INT

Noah Brown, 51.25 QBR
26-50, 310 yards, 6.2 Yards Per Attempt, 2 TDs, 4 INT

 

[Stash]

There was a huge QBR rating gap with Dak throwing to 1-4 vs 5-8.

Dak Prescott 2022 QB Rating per Targeted Receiver...


Ceedee Lamb, 111.8 QBR
75-103, 953 Yards, 9.3 Yards per Attempt 7 TDs 3 INT

Tony Pollard, 122.5 QBR
31-40, 296 yards, 7.4 Yards Per Attempt, 3 TDs, 0 INT

Jake Ferguson, 132.2 QBR
11-11, 93 yards, 8.5 Yards Per Attempt , 1 TD, 0 INT

T.Y. Hilton, 110.83 QBR
7-10, 121 yards, 12.1 Yards Per Attempt, 0 TDs, 0 INT,

---

Ezekiel Elliott, 82.03 QBR
12-16, 67 yards, 4.2 Yards Per Attempt, 0 TDs, 0 INT

Dalton Schultz, 81.2 QBR
52-78, 541 Yards, 6.9 Yards Per Attempt, 5 TDs, 5 INT

Michael Gallup, 73.8 QBR
31-58, 338 Yards, 5.8 Yards Per Attempt, 3 TDs, 2 INT

Noah Brown, 51.25 QBR
26-50, 310 yards, 6.2 Yards Per Attempt, 2 TDs, 4 INT

Then it seems a little like confirmation bias and a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In truth, I do think the premise is sound. I think that there were lesser receivers like Noah Brown who clearly played a significant role in Dak’s struggles, particularly the interceptions.

But if I’m being honest, Lamb himself had a hand in several as well.

 

[CowboyFrog]

Very interested and thanks for the cool work. When I look at those numbers I would offer the following:

We should have stopped throwing to Fat Zeke years ago.
Throwing the ball to Pollard was underutilized.
Take away our primary (Lamb) and we are toast.

I am not sure if you think this data is "pro" Dak of "anti" Dak. I would say as is the case with most data it can be interpreted any number of ways. I feel as though it tells the tale of what Dak is quite well. When the game is simplified and he can throw to his primary weapon he is very efficient. When teams are good enough take away the primary weapon we are not prepared enough or diverse enough to take advantage. This is why we were such a force in 2016. We had strong run game and a back up plan where Dak would run or throw it away. This is also why we struggle to get over the hump against quality playoff opponents. I do not believe that more threats is the answer. This is the suckers bet. I believe that playing to the strengths of what we have is the play. Unfortunately that will never happen now that our QB is a "super star".

100% this, we have weapons that we need to use correctly, taking the option routes out (hopefully this is happening) will get Dak back to a quicker 1..2..3 and go read, Dak is not Mahomes but he can be very effecient win asked to do the right things.. (like most NFL QB's).

 

[CowboyRoy]

My hope is that Gallup gets back to form and gets something from Cooks and then we have a trio of legit wideouts and some play making TE (Ferguson showed promise). Now can Dak be accurate enough to use them….a lot of time yes, in playoff games, no.

So when Dak went for 300 yards and 5 TD's against the Bucs that wasnt accuracy in the playoffs?

Only time Dak has played less that good in the playoffs was against the #1 D niners twice. The other 4 times in the playoffs he has been good if not great.

 

[blueblood70]

The tweet and top link is for 2023.
Dallas was rated highly LAST year ENTERING the year.
They did not finish high statistically.
They lost the RT and the LT.
Had a shuffle all year and Zack had his most human (and lowest graded) season of his career.

Where people rank them on paper is meaningless.
It is how they graded out that matters.
And the metrics were poor.

Dallas was 28th in pass block win rate:
A pathetic 53%.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams#pbwrteam


Individually DAL had 1 player finish in top 10 in a block rate category. Zack Martin for Guards in pass blocking.
0 Tackles made the list for Run or Pass, 0 Centers for run or pass and zero Guards for Run.

Why the woes? Dallas lost a very good right tackle in Steele, a still very good LT in Tyron Smith and they started a rookie in Tyler at 2 positions.

100 and effected the run game as well which just threw it off against the better Ds.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Can't handle the truth?
What is trolling about it?
If anything I responded to a trolling post.

I don't think that is a good tactic for ANYBODY.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

So when Dak went for 300 yards and 5 TD's against the Bucs that wasnt accuracy in the playoffs?

Only time Dak has played less that good in the playoffs was against the #1 D niners twice. The other 4 times in the playoffs he has been good if not great.

Against the worst team to make the 2023 playoffs and one of the worst ever. 2023 Bucs total losers at 8-9.

Glad Dak had a great game against ....complete losers. I missed the parade.