Breaking down the College Football Playoffs

[viman96]

The Committee said they will factor in injuries when ranking teams. If OSU's 3rd string QB can perform at a high level then the injury to Barrett may not hurt them in the rankings.

 

[DFWJC]

The Committee said they will factor in injuries when ranking teams. If OSU's 3rd string QB can perform at a high level then the injury to Barrett may not hurt them in the rankings.

True.
If they manage to beat a good Wisconsin team anyway, they may not be too hard on them.
I mean, don't be surprised if the Badgers are right around top 10 this week.
I'm not sure they'd be ahead of a one loss TCU or Baylor though.
Guess we'll see.

 

[jterrell]

I've said all year that the Big 12 not having a championship game would be a killer, OSU losing their QB may have saved them.

The Big 12 not having a champ game may end up getting them TWO teams in.

 

[jterrell]

OSU-- They couldn't stop the Mich run so not sure they can handle Wisc. The Texas kid at QB WAS the offense this year.
ORE-- They've lost once to Arizona but look deadly most weeks.
BAY-- KST is gonna be hard to beat. Baylor cna be real sloppy and commit penalties. KST won't do that.
TCU-- As close to a lock as you'll find IMHO.
FSU-- GT is better than anyone else they've played by a good margin and FSU has had no margin... winning by 3,4,5, and the last 3 weeks.
ARIZ--Beat Oregon and they have a real shot at top 4.
MISS--Beat Bama and get a FSU defeat and they might sneak in.

 

[viman96]

Cool picture of Mariota doing the Heisman pose

 

[reddyuta]

The Big 12 not having a champ game may end up getting them TWO teams in.

i really hope this happens,who could have thought Baylor and TCU would make the playoffs in its first year.

 

[jterrell]

i really hope this happens,who could have thought Baylor and TCU would make the playoffs in its first year.

I think it more likely 2 make it then none but the odds on guess would be 1 does.

I think it is easy to see a 1 loss SEC champ as better. --even if they aren't.
And I think it is easy to take a 1 loss Pac 12 champ after a Conf Champ Game win.

But after that only undefeated conf champs have any chance to unseat a 1 loss Big 12 team IMHO. (Especially TCU who would have 9 P5 wins and only 1 loss by a close margin to a top 10 CFB ranked team.)
Not a B1G team or a 1 loss ACC team.

I'd like to see no SEC teams make it this year just because it would probably spur a more rapid move to 8 teams.
Getting to 8 or 12 and deciding it on the field is what matters.

 

[jterrell]

True.
If they manage to beat a good Wisconsin team anyway, they may not be too hard on them.
I mean, don't be surprised if the Badgers are right around top 10 this week.
I'm not sure they'd be ahead of a one loss TCU or Baylor though.
Guess we'll see.

Wisconsin currently has 1 win over a currently ranked CFB opponent and that was last week so Minny might fall out now.
If OSU does win not sure Wisc stays ranked above 20 which would deflate any boost to their status for winning.
OSU is in a tough spot. They need to win and win big but have to hope Wisc stays ranked high enough for it to be seen as meaningful once they look at Wisc's overall season.

 

[viman96]

Has there ever been so much pressure put on a 3rd string QB?

 

[DFWJC]

Wisconsin currently has 1 win over a currently ranked CFB opponent and that was last week so Minny might fall out now.
If OSU does win not sure Wisc stays ranked above 20 which would deflate any boost to their status for winning.
OSU is in a tough spot. They need to win and win big but have to hope Wisc stays ranked high enough for it to be seen as meaningful once they look at Wisc's overall season.

probably true.

Still, so much of this is regional bias.

The Ohio State and Oregon fans think they could stomp any Big 12 school at this stage in the season. I suspect Ohio State would back off that some now.
Seems silly, but so much of this is he-said, she-said stuff. Some teams are better and some are worse than they were two months ago.
I guess it's better than just the top two BCS rankings playing each other.

 

[viman96]

As a big Ducks fans, I do not think they could whoop any B12 school. Oklahoma had some size on their DL that would cause major problems for the Ducks OL. Both Baylor and TCU can score points and would provide a good challenge.

I think most fans of other conferences than the Pac12 under estimate the Ducks.

 

[jterrell]

probably true.

Still, so much of this is regional bias.

The Ohio State and Oregon fans think they could stomp any Big 12 school at this stage in the season. I suspect Ohio State would back off that some now.
Seems silly, but so much of this is he-said, she-said stuff. Some teams are better and some are worse than they were two months ago.
I guess it's better than just the top two BCS rankings playing each other.

I "think" we'll start to see less regional bias under this system.
I know I have watched a ton more CFB this year and that has been almost all games outside the Big 12.
I already watched those previously.

I think most fans of other conferences than the Pac12 under estimate the Ducks.

Vi, not sure I agree there. I think people rate Oregon quite high and they fall in the top 3 slots on just about everyone's list.
People may underrate Arizona or Ariz St but not Oregon.
People severely overrated USC and UCLA entering the year.

One things for sure, 4 team is a heck of a lot better than 2.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I think it more likely 2 make it then none but the odds on guess would be 1 does.

I think it is easy to see a 1 loss SEC champ as better. --even if they aren't.
And I think it is easy to take a 1 loss Pac 12 champ after a Conf Champ Game win.

But after that only undefeated conf champs have any chance to unseat a 1 loss Big 12 team IMHO. (Especially TCU who would have 9 P5 wins and only 1 loss by a close margin to a top 10 CFB ranked team.)
Not a B1G team or a 1 loss ACC team.

I'd like to see no SEC teams make it this year just because it would probably spur a more rapid move to 8 teams.
Getting to 8 or 12 and deciding it on the field is what matters.

That would be awesome if no SEC teams made it. And, honestly, this is the year where I could see it happen. The usual-powerhouse SEC West is weak this year. I think we all saw that Miss St were frauds this past week. In the SEC East, Georgia was looking really strong before blowing it this past week. Now we have a championship game between a 1-loss Bama and a 2-loss Missouri. Missouri wasn't even ranked all season before skyrocketing up the charts these past few weeks. I think that happened because the committee realized Missouri could actually win the SEC and they didn't want to have an unranked or a #20-25 ranked team as SEC champs. And Bama, despite having a good record, doesn't look nearly as good as past years. It'll be interesting to see what happens if Missouri wins the SEC. I can't remember a year when no SEC team had fewer than 2 losses.

The same goes for the Pac 12. What's gonna happen if Arizona upsets Oregon? I do think Oregon is a top team in the country, but Arizona is no pushover.

What do you see the final 4 playoff teams being if the following happens:

Missouri beats Bama
Arizona beats Oregon
TCU and Baylor win
Georgia Tech beats FSU
Ohio State beats Wisconsin

You'll have three 2-loss conference champions (Missouri, Arizona, Georgia Tech), three 1-loss non-conference champions (TCU, Baylor, FSU) and one 1-loss conference champion (Ohio State).

My guess would be
1. TCU
2. Ohio State
3. Baylor
4. Missouri
5. Arizona
6. Alabama
7. Oregon
8. Georgia Tech
9. FSU

 

[jterrell]

That would be awesome if no SEC teams made it. And, honestly, this is the year where I could see it happen. The usual-powerhouse SEC West is weak this year. I think we all saw that Miss St were frauds this past week. In the SEC East, Georgia was looking really strong before blowing it this past week. Now we have a championship game between a 1-loss Bama and a 2-loss Missouri. Missouri wasn't even ranked all season before skyrocketing up the charts these past few weeks. I think that happened because the committee realized Missouri could actually win the SEC and they didn't want to have an unranked or a #20-25 ranked team as SEC champs. And Bama, despite having a good record, doesn't look nearly as good as past years. It'll be interesting to see what happens if Missouri wins the SEC. I can't remember a year when no SEC team had fewer than 2 losses.

The same goes for the Pac 12. What's gonna happen if Arizona upsets Oregon? I do think Oregon is a top team in the country, but Arizona is no pushover.

What do you see the final 4 playoff teams being if the following happens:

Missouri beats Bama
Arizona beats Oregon
TCU and Baylor win
Georgia Tech beats FSU
Ohio State beats Wisconsin

You'll have three 2-loss conference champions (Missouri, Arizona, Georgia Tech), three 1-loss non-conference champions (TCU, Baylor, FSU) and one 1-loss conference champion (Ohio State).

My guess would be
1. TCU
2. Ohio State
3. Baylor
4. Missouri
5. Arizona
6. Alabama
7. Oregon
8. Georgia Tech
9. FSU

I'd say something similar to your list.

1. TCU -co Big 12 champ, best 1 loss resume. 9 P5 wins.
2. Baylor -co Big 12 champ, 8 P5 wins.
3. OSU - B1G champ 9 P5 wins
4. Missou - 2 loss SEC Champ gets in after chaos.
5. Bama - 2 loss chaos but most NFL talent.
6. Zona - Respected for two wins over Oregon but not enough to get in with 2 losses.
7. GT - ACC Champ. 2 losses keep it out.
8. Ore - 2 losses to same team hurt.

FSU may well fall to 15 or so. A loss changes their narrative a great deal. Potentially 0 wins over top 20 teams. 0-1 versus the top 20.

Right now it is the Big 12 with 3 top 10 ranked teams in the polls and the overall lead in the Espn conference power rankings.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I'd say something similar to your list.

1. TCU -co Big 12 champ, best 1 loss resume. 9 P5 wins.
2. Baylor -co Big 12 champ, 8 P5 wins.
3. OSU - B1G champ 9 P5 wins
4. Missou - 2 loss SEC Champ gets in after chaos.
5. Bama - 2 loss chaos but most NFL talent.
6. Zona - Respected for two wins over Oregon but not enough to get in with 2 losses.
7. GT - ACC Champ. 2 losses keep it out.
8. Ore - 2 losses to same team hurt.

FSU may well fall to 15 or so. A loss changes their narrative a great deal. Potentially 0 wins over top 20 teams. 0-1 versus the top 20.

Right now it is the Big 12 with 3 top 10 ranked teams in the polls and the overall lead in the Espn conference power rankings.

Do you see the Big 12 adding two teams any time soon? (I know this is a discussion in itself.) I think they should. If they add two strong teams (I'd go with Boise State and BYU) they could compete with the SEC and Pac-12, if you ask me. I really think Boise State should join up if they want to be taken seriously. They fell off the past few years but they were one of the most dominant non-P5 teams we'd ever seen for a long time. They're still good. I'm impressed with TCU. I remember they had a few really strong seasons in a weaker conference (particularly that year they and Boise State finished undefeated and played each other in the Fiesta Bowl), then they jumped up to the respectable Big 12 and look possibly like the best team in the country. It would be awesome to see a TCU/Boise State rivalry in a respectable division.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

Do you see the Big 12 adding two teams any time soon? (I know this is a discussion in itself.) I think they should. If they add two strong teams (I'd go with Boise State and BYU) they could compete with the SEC and Pac-12, if you ask me. I really think Boise State should join up if they want to be taken seriously. They fell off the past few years but they were one of the most dominant non-P5 teams we'd ever seen for a long time. They're still good. I'm impressed with TCU. I remember they had a few really strong seasons in a weaker conference (particularly that year they and Boise State finished undefeated and played each other in the Fiesta Bowl), then they jumped up to the respectable Big 12 and look possibly like the best team in the country. It would be awesome to see a TCU/Boise State rivalry in a respectable division.

I know you didn't ask me... but my two cents...
Even though I don't know what their future plans are (Big 12)... The math with this current TV contract means, "Less teams, More money to divide."

 

[jterrell]

I know you didn't ask me... but my two cents...
Even though I don't know what their future plans are (Big 12)... The math with this current TV contract means, "Less teams, More money to divide."

yup.
When the Big 12 couldn't sweet talk ND they pretty much stopped trying to expand.
That was the only team who TV was willing to pay more for.
The Big 12 essentially gets the same money for 10 teams as it did 12 plus a championship game.
So substantially reduced costs but same income is a huge net profit.
It paid out slightly more than the SEC last year to the 8 full pay members. (SEC Network wasn't formed yet obviously)

Big 12's dream scenario was ND and FSU, Clemson and Louisville.
Clemson and ND considered but didn't want in.
TV wouldn't pay more for just FSU with Louisville and FSU didn't wanna come without a rival/partner.

Big 12 could have added Cincy and Louisville which would have been pretty cool... but the money wasn't right.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

yup.
When the Big 12 couldn't sweet talk ND they pretty much stopped trying to expand.
That was the only team who TV was willing to pay more for.
The Big 12 essentially gets the same money for 10 teams as it did 12 plus a championship game.
So substantially reduced costs but same income is a huge net profit.
It paid out slightly more than the SEC last year to the 8 full pay members. (SEC Network wasn't formed yet obviously)

Big 12's dream scenario was ND and FSU, Clemson and Louisville.
Clemson and ND considered but didn't want in.
TV wouldn't pay more for just FSU with Louisville and FSU didn't wanna come without a rival/partner.

Big 12 could have added Cincy and Louisville which would have been pretty cool... but the money wasn't right.

Notre Dame and Clemson would have been awesome.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

New polls are out (I don't have it fancy with the logos):

1. Alabama 11-1
2. Oregon 11-1
3. TCU 10-1
4. Florida State 12-0
5. Ohio State 11-1
6. Baylor 10-1
7. Arizona 10-2
8. Michigan State 10-2
9. Kansas State 9-2
10. Mississippi State 10-2
11. Georgia Tech 10-2
12. Ole Miss 9-3
13. Wisconsin 10-2
14. Georgia 9-3
15. UCLA 9-3
16. Missouri 10-2
17. Arizona State 9-3
18. Clemson 9-3
19. Auburn 8-4
20. Oklahoma 8-3
21. Louisville 9-3
22. Boise State 10-2
23. Utah 8-4
24. LSU 8-4
25. USC 8-4

And next week's meaningful match ups are:

Pac-12 Championship: #2 Oregon vs #7 Arizona
SEC Championship: #1 Alabama vs #16 Missouri
ACC Championship: #4 Florida State vs #11 Georgia Tech
Big Ten Championship: #5 Ohio State vs #13 Wisconsin
#3 TCU vs unranked 2-9 Iowa State
#6 Baylor vs #9 Kansas State

People are making a big deal about TCU jumping FSU in the polls, but I think it's all meaningless. I'm almost certain FSU would jump back over them if they win next week. TCU is playing an unraked 2-9 team. There's no way FSU will finish undefeated two years in a row, win the ACC, and not jump back over TCU.

It's interesting how low Missouri is ranked. That almost assures that the SEC will have no teams in the playoffs if Alabama doesn't win. And it's funny because people were talking about two SEC teams making the playoffs about a week ago. No way Alabama stays in the top 4 if they lose, and no way Missouri jumps up into the top 4 if they win.

Arizona has a chance, though small, of getting into the playoffs. Of course, they have to beat Oregon, but they also need a few teams ahead of them to lose. Arizona is the only team outside of the top 6 that I see having any chance of making the playoffs. #8 Michigan State plays no championship game, neither does #9 Kansas State (and they won't jump both TCU and Baylor), #10 Mississippi State won't jump Alabama or even Missouri if they win the SEC, #11 Georgia Tech won't make it even if they win the ACC, #12 Ole Miss has three losses, and #13 Wisconsin won't make it if they win the Big Ten (heck, even #5 Ohio State probably won't make it if they win the Big Ten).

The distance between TCU and Baylor is interesting. I thought Baylor might jump TCU if they had an impressive win over #9 Kansas State, but I don't see them jumping 4 spots over TCU. I do, like I said before, see FSU jumping TCU if they win the ACC. It'll be real interesting to see what happens this weekend. Right now, I only see 7 teams fighting for 4 playoff spots.

And I also see Arizona jumping Baylor if they both win. So essentially, I see a win for Arizona bringing them from #7 to #5. You also have to consider the fact that Ohio State is playing with a 3rd string QB, so they might be excluded from the playoffs even if they win (if the win isn't impressive). So a win for Arizona could jump them to #4 even if everyone ahead of them wins.

If that happens, I could see:

1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. TCU
4. Arizona

 

[DFWJC]

Interesting stuff.

GTech at 11 almost caught up with K State. I actually think they're better, but either way, the teams that beat those two would move up a few slots.

My guess is that difference between #3 and #6 is almost nothing....basically equal.

Next Sundays final poll should be wild.