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The Duke
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I think the 2 conditions are similar in reasoning even if different in acquisition methods. Both are about cost. Jerry has said he doesn't want to pay the price to get into the top 5. In the past when teams do this, especially when as far back in the Draft as we are, it can have crippling results. Credit Jerry for realizing this.Little Jr;2032402 said:I never said they wouldnt move him. I'm actually agreeing with you on this one. Not only do I hope this happens. I think it will happen. I also agree with all your reasons why it will happen.
The thing I was asking and trying to make a point on was the Lions organization has said that they would not do it. Yet you still believe they will. JJ said he wont trade up high for Dmac. In quite of few post I've seen you use that for your reasoning on why we wont trade up for Dmac. I'm not saying this is your only reason but I've seen you use it more than once.
I just dont believe anything GM's are saying at this time of the year. I cant see why anyone would use the words of a GM this time of year for their reasoning why something will or will not happen. If you think this trade will happen it obvious you think GM's arent being truthful all the time. That includes JJ.
Again, I'm all for RW trade and I believe it will happen. I'm not for a Dmac trade into the top 7 and I hope it wont happen. Just understand why anyone would believe what a GM says at this time of the year.
I don't think it stops him from wanting McFadden, nor should it. If the guy falls, suddenly the cost is more amenable to the long term goals of the team.
Jerry has said this off season that he is looking for a vet WR opposite TO. He has come right out and said it. So in essence I am agreeing with Jerry twice in what he says he is going to do, or wants to do.
I don't think Chad Johnson will be traded and never have. Same reason why I don't think our Roy Williams will be traded. Cost to the team on a cap hit. Does that make it impossible? Of course not. However, when things are unlikely to happen I don't find much use in discussing it. Like getting into the top 5 to get McFadden. To me it is useless to even talk about it. If Jerry surprises me and does that, IMO it will be stupid.
Okay, now let's turn this around to cost for the Lions. If they do not trade him right now what does it cost them? As it sits right now, the #28 pick in the Draft for one thing. They pass on this trade, that is an immediate sunk cost. Zero return.
That means they are going to keep him for 2008 and run the risk of losing him at the end of the year. Yes, they can franchise him in 2009. That again is a cost and you have to look at what the top 5 WRs are making to gauge price it would take. Is Roy a top 5 WR in the NFL? Probably not, but they will have to pay him like one if they Franchise tag him. Combine that with what they're already on the hook for in guaranteed money to Calvin Johnson and it pushes the money tied up in one position too high to keep balance. They can trade him after they franchise him. That is true, but he has more value right now at a point where an existing deal can be re-worked than he will have with a brand new deal.
Cost.
I don't think they can afford to keep him despite the posturing and I think they know it. The guy denying he will be traded isn't Millen, it's Rod Maranelli the Head Coach. It ultimately isn't his call. Yes, he can influence whether they do it or not.
I put the odds of this happening at 90% will to 10% won't.
If it goes down, I got lucky. If it doesn't folks can say I made it all up so they feel all warm and tingly about their skepticism. I decided this morning that it really didn't matter to me and so I shared this.
Oh, one final thing from my original post that you keep overlooking and is a big reason why I believe so heavily in this. "Get me to Dallas." That carries some weight with me. Too much? We'll see.