1) You have no clue what happened in that apartment. She is a mess. He has shown to be a mess and unreliable when it comes to his statements. We have no clue but we have had a judge find him initially culpable and the league and others find him in violation. Is it probably somewhere in between? Yes but there is no way he wasn't getting some punishment after what the league has been through
2) He hasn't helped himself. Twitter, his initial press conference talking about hot wives, being tardy weekly, slapping coaches clip board, this last interview...the guy makes #1 seem even more possible because he has zero self awareness and is all over the place.
3) I didn't even practice criminal defense but spent a tiny part in a DAs office where I saw everything from DWI to a little girl who had been touched inappropriately by her step-Dad and people are up in arms about crimes anywhere you go...MADD to victim rights group. The NFL is big business so they will protect the brand more than crazy individuals.