Factual look at this offense and at Dak

Melonfeud

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One thing not mentioned about going from 88 and 83 to the current WR group is how much lesser these guys are as blockers.
88 and 83 were straight up killers as blocking WRs.

Part of the run blocking that has suffered most is just that drop off and of course the drop off at TE.
Swain is pretty good but the other TEs are bad.
Jarwin and Schultz block like WRs.
Rico is still learning who to block.
T-will/#83 has displayed some pretty savvy down field blocking on some big yardage plays,no doubt & same for the x#88,,,I recall #83 being flagged once or twice though, negating momentum buildo_O
 

jterrell

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T-will/#83 has displayed some pretty savvy down field blocking on some big yardage plays,no doubt & same for the x#88,,,I recall #83 being flagged once or twice though, negating momentum buildo_O
Where TWill was vital is when they motioned him into the line and allowed him to block a slot DB or crack back on a LB.
He was stellar there. Outside he won regularly but yea sometimes did too much picking up a penalty 15 yards down the field.

Dez was simply so big for a WR that he outweighed most DBs by 30 pounds and could just get in the way and be a plus blocker.
Zeke could get to edge then hide behind him like a mini-guard, LOL.

Longer term I think Noah Brown will give you that motion in or out and block guy. He's a monster athlete.

I expect 2019 WR corps to look like
Cooper
Bease
Gallup
Austin
NBrown
Ced Wilson

That means TWill, Hurns, Thompson all turned over.
If Bease leaves you may see a vet WR brought in.

Swain is a keeper and perhaps Rico.
I have less hope for Jarwin or Schultz but they are still very young.
 

Clove

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So if we were paying Dak 16 million that would make him a better QB?
You are defending Dak as not the problem on one hand and denegrating him as a 600,000 QB on the other hand

Can't have it both ways

When your QB passes for 150 yes/game in this era of pass happy NFL rules, he is a BIG part of the problem
He's 22nd in attempts. If you're not throwing it a lot, how can you pile up yards? If your offense is predicated on the run and slowing the game down, this means you have way less offensive series. So if you're not throwing it a lot, you don't have as many offensive series, to couple that with a mediocre offensive line, and zero receivers or TEs, then explain to me how you're supposed to have a potent offense?

And by the way, this is an exert from this website about every scheme in the NFL ( https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...ve-play/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.228290d61e2c ) and this is what they said about our offensive philosophy.

The Cowboys' offense under Coach Jason Garrett has always been based more on the talent at his disposal than the scheme itself, keeping things simple and trusting his players to win key matchups. In the running game, this works particularly well because of a very talented offensive line and star running back Ezekiel Elliott. One of their core passing concepts goes back to the 1990s when Ernie Zampese was their offensive coordinator. He called it 525 F-Post, and it has become a staple for offenses across the modern NFL. The tight end runs a shallow cross(1) designed to draw the attention of underneath defenders, leaving the slot receiver (2) one-on-one with a nickel corner on a quick post.

Yeah, this is your offense. Bad scheme, low passing attempts, few series a game, bad receivers in general, bad offensive line play, bad QB coach, and a 3 year QB. And we're supposed to have a dominant passing attack with that? GMAFB (give me a f'ing break)
 
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Melonfeud

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He's 22nd in attempts. If you're not throwing it a lot, how can you pile up yards? If your offense is predicated on the run and slowing the game down, this means you have way less offensive series. So if you're not throwing it a lot, you don't have as many offensive series, to couple that with a mediocre offensive line, and zero receivers or TEs, then explain to me how you're supposed to have a potent offense?

And by the way, this is an exert from this website about every scheme in the NFL ( https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...ve-play/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.228290d61e2c ) and this is what they said about our offensive philosophy.

The Cowboys' offense under Coach Jason Garrett has always been based more on the talent at his disposal than the scheme itself, keeping things simple and trusting his players to win key matchups. In the running game, this works particularly well because of a very talented offensive line and star running back Ezekiel Elliott. One of their core passing concepts goes back to the 1990s when Ernie Zampese was their offensive coordinator. He called it 525 F-Post, and it has become a staple for offenses across the modern NFL. The tight end runs a shallow cross(1) designed to draw the attention of underneath defenders, leaving the slot receiver (2) one-on-one with a nickel corner on a quick post.

Yeah, this is your offense. Bad scheme, low passing attempts, few series a game, bad receivers in general, bad offensive line play, bad QB coach, and a 3 year QB. And we're supposed to have a dominant passing attack with that? GMAFB (give me an f'ing break)
So,,,just how much cabbage did you drop in game #3,BRO?,,,o_O


:):starspin::)

* I wanted to post in that thread where it was you against about 6 over#21, but was on banishment protocol
 

Clove

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So,,,just how much cabbage did you drop in game #3,BRO?,,,o_O


:):starspin::)

* I wanted to post in that thread where it was you against about 6 over#21, but was on banishment protocol
Taking on multiple posters is my thing.
 

punchnjudy

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Sometimes?

Sure. I'm sure there are some snaps where our WR's are being covered.

However we can go around and around. Look a the column immediately to the left of the separation column. Cushion.
You'll notice that our WR's rank toward the bottom on cushion also. Meaning opposing defenses are playing press a lot more on us than other teams.
Would this account for less separation also? And if they are playing press, why? Possibly because they aren't worried about Prescott throwing over the top on them?

The stats are what they are, but there are a lot of different ways of analyzing and interpreting. I'm going to assume that you and I are going to be on the opposite end of most of the interpretations..... :grin:

League-wide, the bolded part is true.

https://offcoverage.com/next-gen-stats-in-some-context-133d6b53bff0

1*9kG9DC4yYRALzJOQ6tttLQ.png




"The highest correlation here is between Cushion and Separation, which makes sense. The further off a defender plays a receiver, the more space a receiver has to work, especially given the next point — Separation and Targeted Air Yards are negatively correlated. That means more separation comes on shorter passes. There’s a lot of logic to that, though admittedly I always picture someone getting open deep down the field whenever we talk about “creating separation.” The reality is most of the separation happens much closer to the line of scrimmage.

With that in mind, it’s also interesting that Cushion has a negative correlation with both targets and receptions. While more cushion leads more room to work shallow, playing off a receiver is typically in preparation for him to go deep where the probability of a catch falls.

The wide receiver stats were also the stickiest for year-to-year correlation among the group of 67 receivers who qualified in both 2016 and 2017. TAY had the highest correlation at 0.81 (0.66 r-squared), followed by CUSH (0.74, 0.55), TAY% (0.61, 0.37), and SEP (0.60, 0.36)."


There's also a negative correlation between separation and targets and a weak correlation between separation and receptions.

If you read through the discussion that ensues with the tweet below, Matt Harmon of Nextgen agrees that the data is skewed by scheme.



This year Hurns is at the bottom at 1.7. (There are also some very productive receivers, like A.J. Green, who rank near the bottom).

Last year, Hurns had an average of 2.5 yards separation and Antonio Brown had 2.6.


There’s still a lot of work to be done with Next Gen Stat
 

Clove

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Philly.gif

Dallas.gif


One offense is ours, the other is Phillys? Which is which?
 

BoysForLife

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League-wide, the bolded part is true.

https://offcoverage.com/next-gen-stats-in-some-context-133d6b53bff0

1*9kG9DC4yYRALzJOQ6tttLQ.png




"The highest correlation here is between Cushion and Separation, which makes sense. The further off a defender plays a receiver, the more space a receiver has to work, especially given the next point — Separation and Targeted Air Yards are negatively correlated. That means more separation comes on shorter passes. There’s a lot of logic to that, though admittedly I always picture someone getting open deep down the field whenever we talk about “creating separation.” The reality is most of the separation happens much closer to the line of scrimmage.

With that in mind, it’s also interesting that Cushion has a negative correlation with both targets and receptions. While more cushion leads more room to work shallow, playing off a receiver is typically in preparation for him to go deep where the probability of a catch falls.

The wide receiver stats were also the stickiest for year-to-year correlation among the group of 67 receivers who qualified in both 2016 and 2017. TAY had the highest correlation at 0.81 (0.66 r-squared), followed by CUSH (0.74, 0.55), TAY% (0.61, 0.37), and SEP (0.60, 0.36)."


There's also a negative correlation between separation and targets and a weak correlation between separation and receptions.

If you read through the discussion that ensues with the tweet below, Matt Harmon of Nextgen agrees that the data is skewed by scheme.



This year Hurns is at the bottom at 1.7. (There are also some very productive receivers, like A.J. Green, who rank near the bottom).

Last year, Hurns had an average of 2.5 yards separation and Antonio Brown had 2.6.


There’s still a lot of work to be done with Next Gen Stat



Hey Jterrell

Still "the worlds biggest leap"?

Seems like my argument is bolstered. Next Gen even acknowledges that.

LOL
 

BoysForLife

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This is the world's biggest leap.
When a CB plays press on a WR it has mostly to do with zero fear of that WR.
Dak's deep ball placement and performance has actually been quite good this year.
The issue is WRs largely aren't getting open until 20 yards down the field.

Ask yourself how come Hurns doesn't have any deep catches?
He was WR1 until last week when Gallup jumped in snaps.

How come Thompson snaps have dropped through the floor?

DAL gave those guys starters snaps the first two weeks at WR.
They were not good.

DAL traded for Amari Cooper telling you all you need to know.
Jerry admitted they were going WR in RD1 next year.
WR was the weakest position on the football team.


Hennessy, your thoughts too?
Am I still making things up? LOL
 

Hennessy_King

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Hennessy, your thoughts too?
Am I still making things up? LOL
Separation (SEP), how far away the closest defender is at the target point
Gallup doesn't have the closest cushion and hurns has a extra yard of cushion than gallup and is just as bad as him. Fact is they are bottom in the league at getting open. You can't single out people when everyone is graded on the same system. Like i said antonio brown has people in his face more than anyone in the league and has almost double the separation as gallup and hurns.

You are overanalyzing every stat to prove your narrative which is wrong. lol. I mean every nfl expert and our own team has told you WR was our biggest need. If they were so good we wouldn't have spent a 1st round pick on one.
 

BoysForLife

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Separation (SEP), how far away the closest defender is at the target point
Gallup doesn't have the closest cushion and hurns has a extra yard of cushion than gallup and is just as bad as him. Fact is they are bottom in the league at getting open. You can't single out people when everyone is graded on the same system. Like i said antonio brown has people in his face more than anyone in the league and has almost double the separation as gallup and hurns.

You are overanalyzing every stat to prove your narrative which is wrong. lol. I mean every nfl expert and our own team has told you WR was our biggest need. If they were so good we wouldn't have spent a 1st round pick on one.

So, to summarize, I presented an interpretation of the data that disagreed with your narrative.
You mocked me as someone who "had no idea what I was talking about" and point blank said I was "making **** up".

Then, someone comes along with a direct link to the next gen page showing that the interpretation I offered is totally consistent with their metric, word for word.

You refuse to acknowledge that and then state that I am "over analyzing" stats to prove a false narrative.

Let me know if I missed anything.
 

Hennessy_King

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So, to summarize, I presented an interpretation of the data that disagreed with your narrative.
You mocked me as someone who "had no idea what I was talking about" and point blank said I was "making **** up".

Then, someone comes along with a direct link to the next gen page showing that the interpretation I offered is totally consistent with their metric.

You refuse to acknowedge that and accuse me of "over analyzing" stats to prove a false narrative.

Let me know if I missed anything.
It's an average so you would have to go through every wr and do another chart with cushion to separation. Even with the added .49 yards of separation on average they are still bottom of the league. Which is only added if they have the closest cushion. It's adding another chart to a stat that is pretty telling. It shows you who is getting open and who isn't. Watching the games it's obvious and the stat proves it. So go head crunch the numbers based on their cushion standings compared to their separation standings. I bet it wouldn't be that big of a difference. I also told you that slot wrs and te's average separation is about half a yard more than outside wr's because of a bigger cushion.

read this https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/10/25/dwain-mcfarlands-rsp-film-and-data-is-amari-cooper-worth-it/
 

BoysForLife

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It's an average so you would have to go through every wr and do another chart with cushion to separation. Even with the added .49 yards of separation on average they are still bottom of the league. Which is only added if they have the closest cushion. It's adding another chart to a stat that is pretty telling. It shows you who is getting open and who isn't. Watching the games it's obvious and the stat proves it. So go head crunch the numbers based on their cushion standings compared to their separation standings. I bet it wouldn't be that big of a difference. I also told you that slot wrs and te's average separation is about half a yard more than outside wr's because of a bigger cushion.

read this https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/10/25/dwain-mcfarlands-rsp-film-and-data-is-amari-cooper-worth-it/

I don't have to crunch the numbers.
They're evident. Next Gen agrees.

Thanks for playing.
 

Hennessy_King

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I don't have to crunch the numbers.
They're evident. Next Gen agrees.

Thanks for playing.
did you read the link? it explains about our wrs as well. good read. So you are saying we don't have the worst wr corps in the league? So other gms, and experts all say it but you don't believe it?
 

Corso

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did you read the link? it explains about our wrs as well. good read. So you are saying we don't have the worst wr corps in the league? So other gms, and experts all say it but you don't believe it?
He interprets data. I'm certain he's an expert on the subject.
No joke! I'm certain he's an expert on interpreting data.
 

Hennessy_King

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He interprets data. I'm certain he's an expert on the subject.
No joke! I'm certain he's an expert on interpreting data.
Just as certain that he can't find his ***hole with 2 hands and a flashlight. He's prolly some kid in a debate class who's mommy and daddy never told him he was ever wrong about anything. Now he can't handle it. Future of america right here.
 

Corso

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Just as certain that he can't find his ***hole with 2 hands and a flashlight. He's prolly some kid in a debate class who's mommy and daddy never told him he was ever wrong about anything. Now he can't handle it. Future of america right here.
Aww... I was in Debate. I was an assassin. Anger can be a hard edge, but sometimes it's double-bladed.
T'would have been cool to have a mommy, or a daddy... I think about that sometimes. Not so much anymore.

That would have been pretty awesome. I think. Maybe not. I like myself how I am.
 

BoysForLife

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Just as certain that he can't find his ***hole with 2 hands and a flashlight. He's prolly some kid in a debate class who's mommy and daddy never told him he was ever wrong about anything. Now he can't handle it. Future of america right here.

So, to summarize:

YOU: The Data proves that our WR stink
ME: Here's another alternative explanation that might explain some of the separation numbers
YOU: BFL has no idea what he is talking about and is outright making stuff up
ME: Here's a link to the next gen page that seems to support my point, word for word, by their own analysis of their metrics
YOU: Antonio Brown is better than Allen Hurns. And your parents did a bad job raising you.

That pretty much summarizes the exchange.
Talk about a guy who can't handle it. Next Gens own site basically endorsed my argument word for word.
And now all you have left is personal attacks. Classic.
 

Hennessy_King

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So, to summarize:

YOU: The Data proves that our WR stink
ME: Here's another alternative explanation that might explain some of the separation numbers
YOU: BFL has no idea what he is talking about and is outright making stuff up
ME: Here's a link to the next gen page that seems to support my point, word for word, by their own analysis of their metrics
YOU: Antonio Brown is better than Allen Hurns

That pretty much summarizes the exchange.
Talk about a guy who can't handle it. Next Gens own site basically endorsed my argument word for word.
And now all you have left is personal attacks. Classic.
The endorsement of your argument doesn't change anything. Their rankings would still be in the toilet. That is what I think you fail to comprehend.
 

GenoT

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Stats have a cool way of not caring about your feelings.

They can obviously be used to form arguments that go well beyond what they actually state but that's an issue with the presenter, not the stat.

As of this BYE week we've been told by at least half of cowboyszone Dak is simply a bad QB.

Stats suggest there are lots of myth's about this offense:

1st. DAL faces more 8 in box than anyone.


Ummm, nope. They actually don't. Less than 25% of the time is Zeke running into 8+ man boxes.

2nd. DAL has a dominant OL.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...rboard-pass-block-win-rate-pass-rush-win-rate

Ummm, nope. Only Zack Martin rates top 10 at his position and as a group they are outside the top 10 in pass block win% as well as the Football Outsiders overall OL score.
This is a middle of the pack OL with lots of upside. CWill is improving and Fredbeard should be back next year. But they are the highest paid group in football history and this is not a dominant OL right now. Ol Coach should be on notice though it isn't his fault Travis has to miss the season or that we have a rookie LG.
Tyron and La'el are on him IMHO.

3rd: Dak is awful and we are losing because of him.


Dak's last 4 games performance has been graded in the top 10 at QB by passer rating yet team is only 2-2.

4th: WR is NOT a problem


DAL WRs are last in the NFL in yards of separation. That's an issue. Swain and Beasley are solid, everyone else falls off a cliff.
And while there's not stat for this the entire non-Beasley WR corps is from the TWill school of catching a football with your chest.
Amari Cooper is a possible answer and you can see why they BOLDLY traded for him. This team has done seemingly zero things bold since Stephen took over.

So Dak is the best?
Absolutely not.
He's a prototypical young QB. He's not getting to 3rd or 4th reads regularly and his pre-snap stuff is worth questioning. He is not good at all when pressure is near his feet. His footwork falls apart and his passing accuracy suffer big-time.
So what then he sucks right?
No. These are common issues especially with younger QBs.
You give him a chance to win if you are better along the OL and at WR.

Worth noting:
Tony Romo was really good.


But Dak actually rates even higher in TD/INT ratio.
He'd come in at 2.52 which would be good for 4th on this list all-time....

It is going to be interesting to review this ta the end of the year.
I wonder how many people will ignore better OL and WR play and simply credit Dak if his numbers improve?


All good and fine, but here’s the bottom-line:

Final score, W-L record and SB titles are THE only stats that matter.

Everything else is bullchips.
 
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