Smart Teams devoid of talent on defense don't take chances on Players with drug issues or injuries. Just because a decision comes out right doesn't mean it was a smart decision. It could be just luck and that eventually runs out. He's ours now and I hope he fully recovers. But I hope our front office stops taking chances like him in the 2nd round.
All draft picks are risky.
It is which risk you choose.
You have talent risk, injury risk and/or mental risk.
I think we all agree that you need at least a couple game changers in a defense.
Lee is sort of one - and we got him because we took an injury risk.
The question is how do you get another 1 or 2 game changers.
We went for Zeke at #4 and no one will argue that call.
So the question is how do you get another game changer at #34.
If you take a talent-risk, you know you will not get the game changer.
The only de that was talented was not on the board because of off-field trouble - so we choose not to take the mental risk (perhaps due to Gregory).
So you can go for a safe pick or swing for the fences and take a big injury risk.
Let say the surgeon said you had 50-50 chance of getting a 90% pre-injury Jaylon.
That becomes an extremely good gamble.
Potential game changers like Jaylon are only available in top 10 picks.
That would be same odds as hitting on a starter LB in the 2nd round.
The downside is he might never return.
In my view - this is the Jaylon gamble only meant to be made by 'big boys' who is not worried about getting fired - I would make that gamble 10 out of 10 times:
Jaylon pick:
50% game changer LB - 50% so-so player/never play a down.
This is the normal value of a second round LB pick:
55% starter or better LB - 50% / so-so player
The 55% is from real numbers:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round